PrizePicks Week 7 Preview

PrizePicks describes itself as DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they will go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.

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For the 2021 season, PFF has tasked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks by making their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice.

It has been a choppy start to the 2021 season for our analysts. Andrew Erickson has gone 4-6-2 on his current picks, with one winning week and five losing weeks. Ben Brown has gone 5-5-2, with one winning week, two pushed weeks and three losing weeks. 

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ANDREW ERICKSON

Jameis Winston: OVER 215.5 PASSING YARDS

The New Orleans Saints quarterback has surpassed 225 passing yards in his last two starts as the team has started to open up the deep passing game. The Saints rank third in deep-ball pass rate since Week 4, and their early-down pass rate increased to 61% in Week 5 — a far cry from their previous four-game average of 40%. 

Every quarterback the Seattle Seahawks have faced has surpassed 225 passing yards (including the 49ers' quarterbacks combined line). With a poor pass defense and lack of a pass rush, they have allowed the fourth-most yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.

The matchup sets up nicely for Winston to finish over this passing yards prop.

Jaylen Waddle: UNDER 61.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Jaylen Waddle put on a terrific performance in the team’s loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6, commanding a season-high 13 targets and hauling in two touchdown grabs. He even saw three deep targets.

Waddle’s downfield usage was non-existent with Jacoby Brissett — he saw just one target of 20-plus air yards from Weeks 3 to Week 5. It was good to see the rookie utilized in a higher-aDOT role. 

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However, Waddle’s increase in routes downfield could be a result of the lack of receiver depth available to Miami in last week's game. DeVante Parker will likely be making his return this week, which could move Waddle back into the short-to-intermediate level of the field, making it tougher for him to hit his yardage prop. The Dolphins were without Parker or Preston Williams in Week 6 — the only time Waddle has surpassed 61.5 receiving yards.

Not to mention, his matchup from the slot isn't nearly as great as it was last week. Through the first five weeks of the season, Atlanta allowed just 57 receiving yards per game to opposing slot WRs. Before Waddle posted 70 yards on his 10 receptions, Jacksonville allowed an average of 87 receiving yards to opposing slot WRs.

With Parker back in the fold, the PFF fantasy projections have Waddle slated for just 54.0 receiving yards in Week 7. 

BEN BROWN

Michael Carter: OVER 42.5 RUSHING YARDS

Carter continues to play an increased role in the New York Jets offense and has now played over 50% of offensive snaps over the past two games. Not only does his snap percentage continue to grow, but he has also handled over 50% of the team’s rushing attempts in the past three games.

The easy expectation is that Carter comes out of the bye and continues to establish himself as the RB1 in the Jets' offense. 

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The New England Patriots offer a top-10 defensive matchup for opposing running backs and have posted the 12th-best rush defense grade so far. The rest of their defense has been exploitable, so even if the Patriots have early success stopping the run, they could be forced to play lighter boxes if Zach Wilson is efficient through the air.

PFF’s fantasy projections have Carter rushing for 10 more yards than this total, making it one of the best early-week prop targets for Week 7. 

Jakobi Meyers: OVER 56.5 RECEIVING YARDS

There's nothing like a little game stack on a matchup with a 42.5-point total.

Both of these plays could easily go over their number, even if the game finishes under. Jakobi Meyers is the Patriots' receiving offense in 2021. He has run a route on 94.7% of dropbacks, has seen 23.9% of the targets and has recorded 28.8% of the Pats' air yards. New England's low-volume passing attack has at least condensed its target share to focus mainly on Meyers. 

Game script is a concern in this matchup, but PFF’s betting tools are all pointing toward this being a more competitive matchup than the one-touchdown spread indicates.

PFF’s fantasy projections have Meyers with a median receiving yardage projection of 69.0 yards, giving plenty of wiggle room for him to go over this soft number. Lock in both of these plays on prize picks and enjoy sweating out the best matchup of Week 7.