We’ve been able to identify games where betting early in the week provides closing line value (the line we bet in this article is better than the closing line with respect to the side we bet). On average, we’ve seen 0.66 points of closing line value per pick. In the long run, this is the best predictor of profitable betting.
The Week 7 odds provide some great options despite the slate being heavy on bye weeks. All our initial reactions and guessing of the lines can be found on the PFF Forecast, which airs LIVE directly after Sunday Night Football and again Wednesday evening.
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Week 7 NFL Football Betting Odds (spread, total)
Find all the current spreads and PFF’s model predictions on our NFL scores page
Bye: Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers
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Week 7 Best Early NFL Bets
- New York Giants (+8.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
- New England Patriots (-0.5) vs. New York Jets
- Baltimore Ravens (-0.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
In the case of the New York Giants, you’re getting a lot in the way of value, since they struggled mightily on the scoreboard against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 6, which was largely a product of turnovers. On the other side, you’re also selling the Carolina Panthers higher than they really are, since their game against the Minnesota Vikings went to overtime really only because of some serious noise. This, along with the low total, make this a great Wong teaser leg.
In the case of the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens, you’re getting a lot better lines today compared to earlier in the season, and it’s time to take advantage. Specifically, the Patriots’ line against the Jets now is basically a point different than it was in Week 2, despite nothing other than a bye going in the Jets' favor since then and home-field advantage switching.