• SGP — Justin Jefferson 2+ TDs/110+ yards, Kirk Cousins 275+ yards, Vikes -3 vs Washington: Commander CB unit negative in successful coverage over expectation (SCOE), and while only 3 TDs, Jefferson 5th in NFL in RZ looks.
• Commanders defense is excellent vs tight ends (3rd-fewest targets, 2nd-fewest yards to position) and backs (5th and 3rd, respectively), funneling targets to receivers; Jefferson unquestioned WR1.
• SGP — Deon Jackson 45+ yards receiving/75+ yards rushing/anytime TD at Patriots: N.E. is 4th worst in rushing Success Rate (SR) allowed, and 12th worst in rush EPA allowed and permits the 10th most yards to running backs.
Last updated: Nov. 6, 9:00 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
While same game parlays (SGPs) are big money makers for the sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don't exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: they uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads, and totals; and (2) SGPs allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle, but will not be priced into the odds set by books.
The goal in this space, then, will be to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only through SGPs.
Story: P.J. Walker and D.J. Moore connect on another deep TD ball
• The Cincinnati Bengals‘ scheme forces teams to throw deep, allowing the 6th-highest depth of target. And without top corner Chidobe Awuzie, potentially Mike Hilton, Cincinnati will face the Carolina Panthers with multiple backup defensive backs.
• While the sample is small, P.J. Walker has the best PFF grade on deep passes. He's poised to take advantage of the Bengals' banged-up secondary and scheme that invites deep throws.
• D.J. Moore is the unquestioned WR1 on the Panthers, ranked 9th in NFL in deep targets this season. And with Walker at the helm with his propensity to throw deep, Moore is 2nd in the NFL in deep targets. Walker will be looking Moore’s way, and one deep TD connection likely is all we need to cash this SGP.
BetMGM OGP Build (+1750)
• D.J. Moore TD
• P.J. Walker 250 Passing Yds
• P.J. Walker longest Pass 45 yds
• D.J. Moore 80+ Rec Yards
Story: Kirk Cousins leads on Justin Jefferson in Vikings' win in Washington
• Washington Commanders LB Cole Holcomb and Safety Kamren Curl have had terrific years for the Commanders. And their terrific seasons have led to great play against tight ends, allowing the 3rd-fewest targets and 2nd-fewest yards to
• Washington also allows the 5th-fewest targets and the 3rd-fewest yards to running backs.
• All of this is to say: the targets will flow to Justin Jefferson as the Minnesota Vikings‘ unquestioned WR1 in this offense. And as you can see above, all of the Commanders' corners are negative SCOE — not that it really matters facing Jefferson.
• While Jefferson only has 3 TDs this season, he is 5th in red-zone targets and is always a threat to score from anywhere on the field.
FanDuel SGP (+2607)
• Vikings -3
• Kirk Cousins 275+ Yards
• Justin Jefferson 110+ Yards
• Justin Jefferson 2+ TDs
Story: Indianapolis Colts ride RB Deon Jackson to voluminous day
• New England Patriots are 4th-worst in Rush SR allowed, 12th-worst in rush EPA allowed and permit the 10th-most yards to running backs.
• More than merely poor efficiency on run defense, the Patriots' opponents also run 2.5% over expected. Both volume and efficiency are on Jackson’s side.
• On the receiving front, Jackson has been among the game’s best pass-catching backs. He is 6th among qualifiers in PFF receiving grade, and 7th among qualifying backs in Yards per Route Run.
BetMGM OGP Build (+2500)
• Deon Jackson 45+ receiving yards
• Deon Jackson 75+ rushing yards
• Deon Jackson TD