Data-driven Player Prop Picks for NFL Week 6: Bet 49ers' Wilson, Bucs' Evans, more

New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) is shoved out of bounds by New Orleans Saints safety Justin Evans (30) and safety Marcus Maye (6) during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Bucs WR Mike Evans over 24.5 longest reception at Steelers, who've allowed a league-high 30 catches of 15-plus yards.

Bet Bengals RB Joe Mixon under 21.5 receiving yards in New Orleans, where Saints LBs Demario Davis and Pete Werner are SCOE (Successful Coverage Over Expected) studs.

New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.

Last updated: Fri. Oct 14, 12:35 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 4 mins


Player props have one of the most popular markets offered in sportsbooks right now. Because of its similarity to fantasy football, something most bettors grew up playing, it’s easy to translate the thought process from fantasy football to player props. Here at PFF, you can utilize the Best Bets tab on the website to help sift through the most +EV props to bet on based on our model to help with your betting success. 

As always, shop around and try to ensure you get the best price possible on all your picks, one of the first steps to becoming a profitable bettor long term.

Bet: San Francisco 49ers RB Jeff Wilson over 8.5 receiving yards (-110 @ Draftkings, play up to 10.5 yards) @ Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons vs. running backs in the receiving game has been a regular target: Atlanta allowed the 9th-most receiving yards to running backs in Weeks 1-5, with at least one back on every team eclipsing 9 receiving yards.

Dean Pees' Cover 2 scheme invites teams to take the underneath throw: And that’s where Wilson will likely have success in hitting the over in this prop.

All it takes is one catch for Wilson: As evidenced by him going over this number in 3-of-4 games since Elijah Mitchell was injured, with a catch of at least 9 yards in all three.

Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans longest reception o24.5 yards (-108 @ Caesers, play up to 25.5 yards) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

 Steelers pass defense has a propensity for allowing big plays through the air: In five weeks, they’ve allowed 30 passing plays of 15-plus yards to WRs, which ranks first in the NFL.

Pittsburgh CB corps has been very shaky, especially on the outside: Levi Wallace shows up very poorly in our Successful Coverage over Expected (SCOE) metric, and in Pittsburgh's game Sunday vs. the Bills, five different receivers had catches of 25 yards or longer despite the winds in Buffalo.

Evans has gone over this total in his last four games: And he remains Brady’s preferred deep threat in this Bucs offense.

Bet: Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon u21.5 receiving yards (-115 @ BetMGM, play down to 19.5 yards) @ New Orleans Saints

Saints LB corps playing at an exceptionally high level: Demario Davis and Pete Werner show up well in SCOE, consistently shutting down running backs in the passing game.

New Orleans has allowed only 71 receiving yards to running backs: Which is the third-fewest in the NFL. This includes a 10-yard performance by Dalvin Cook, a 7-yard performance by Christian McCaffrey, and a 9-yard performance by Leonard Fournette.

Mixon is no longer the Bengals' preferred pass-catching RB: He’s gone under this total in his past three games, including Sunday against the Ravens, when Samaje Perine totaled more targets and receiving yards.

Bet: Bengals K Evan McPherson o1.5 FGM (-103 @ Caesars, play down to -120) @ Saints

Saints have allowed the most successful opposing field goals in NFL: They are a great definition of bend-don’t-break, as the Saints allow teams to drive into their territory before holding them to a field goal. 

Bengals have NFL's 10th-highest FG drive percentage: Meantime, the Saints have the 4th-highest FG drive percentage in Weeks 1-5.

Prior to last week, McPherson was on a 10-game streak of going over this prop: And had Bengals HC Zac Taylor kicked instead of going for that 4th-and-2 inside the 5, McPherson likely would’ve extended this streak to 11.

Bet: Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb longest rush over 18.5 yards (-110 @ BetMGM, play up to 19.5 yards) vs. New England Patriots

Browns boast the third-highest rate of perfectly-blocked runs: 45% of their rushing plays. This bodes well for our Chubb, who only needs one Perfectly-Blocked run to hit the second level of the defense and cash this play.

 Patriots defense is below average in preventing Perfectly-Blocked runs: And for further evidence of their defensive weakness, they show up in the bottom 5 in both rushing EPA allowed and rushing success rate allowed.

Chubb has gone over this longest rush prop in his past 10 games: And we like him to continue that streak at home this week.


Arjun’s data-driven prop bets went 2-3 (-1 units) last week, which brings his season record to 11-11 (+0.64 units) on article plays.

Betting Featured Tools
  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
OR
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit