• Bet Packers RB A.J. Dillon u55.5 rush yards (-115; playable to 54.5): Dillon has the NFL's lowest explosive rush rate since entering the league.
• Dillon's counterpart, Aaron Jones averaging +1.18 RYOE/rush this season (compared to Dillon's -0.87) and should start getting more carries.
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Last updated: Fri. Oct. 7, 10:50 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
In the past two weeks, using Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) to identify rushing prop bets, we've gone 4-2 and gained 1.6 units. This is because 4-of-6 recommended bets were unders. As PFF’s Ben Brown shows, rushing prop unders cash more regularly than rushing prop overs. In this article, 2 unders and 1 over will be given out to maximize profits, but the over should be placed with more caution than the unders.
NFL player prop categories broken out by units won through the first four weeks of the season. pic.twitter.com/LMu024LIXE
— Benjamin Brown (@PFF_BenBrown) October 6, 2022
• Dillon isn’t Explosive: The quickest way for an under on a rushing yards prop to not hit is for the running back to break off an explosive run. A.J. Dilon has been the least explosive running back in the NFL since 2021 so that shouldn’t be much of an issue on Sunday.
• Dillon Has Struggled this Season: After having an above-average +0.29 rushing yards over expected per carry last year, Dillon has dropped to -0.87 RYOE/rush, well below the NFL average. His counterpart, Aaron Jones, has had a +1.18 RYOE/rush and should start getting the majority of the carries.
• PFF’s Player Props Tool sees this bet as a +2.6% edge.
• Lamar Jackson is the NFL’s Best Rusher: On his 17 designed rushes this year, Lamar Jackson has accumulated +115 total rushing yards over expected, the most in the entire league. This doesn’t even include his scrambling ability, which is also very effective.
• He Usually Goes Over: This season, Lamar Jackson rushed for 17 yards in Week 1, but since then has rushed for 119, 107 and 73 yards, respectively, putting him over his rushing total every week. In his career, Jackson has a mean rushing yards of 66 and a median rushing yards of 65.
• Sanders’ Stats Have an Outlier: For most of the season, Miles Sanders was a below-average rusher but getting a 35-yard rush last week (+28.1 RYOE) has made his overall statistics and advanced statistics look better than they actually are. The percent of his rushes that generate positive RYOE is still 45.9%, which is below average.
• PFF’s Player Props Tool has this bet as a +5.3% to bet.
Tej's rushing prop bets went 2-1 in Week 4, bringing his season record in this space to 5-4 (.4 units).
Rushing yards over expected was created using an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). The most important factor in determining expected rushing yards is the number of graded and negatively graded blocks on a play. The importance is followed by yards from the end zone, number of box defenders, defensive strength, seconds left in the half and score differential.
This model can predict 22% of the variance in actual rushing yards and has a year-to-year correlation of 0.21. A shiny app to explore RYOE for each player can be found here.