Though they have been hit hard by injuries to key players, the New York Jets head into their Week 7 matchup in New England with a 3-3 record, tied for first with the rest of the teams in the AFC East. While the Jets have struggled in nearly every area this season, last week’s blowout victory against Indianapolis saw them return to their winning formula of smothering defense and a strong running game. New York’s defense allowed only 41 rushing yards on 17 attempts — a measly average of 2.4 yards per carry — and their offense returned to their “ground and pound” style as running back Shonn Greene had a career day, rushing for 161 yards and three touchdowns. Beleaguered quarterback Mark Sanchez threw just 18 passes, and the team did not commit any turnovers on their way to a 35-9 victory. In order to beat the Patriots and their prolific offense in Foxborough this week, the Jets will need to find success on the ground and win the turnover battle once again.
New England has looked like a juggernaut at times this season, but they enter this Sunday’s contest with the same 3-3 record as the Jets. The Patriots have now lost three games by a total of four points, and the team’s struggling pass defense seems to be the main culprit. Last week, they built a 23-10 fourth-quarter lead in Seattle before being victimized by Russell Wilson’s late-game heroics. Though the team held Seattle’s excellent rushing attack to just 85 total yards and 3.3 YPC, the Seahawks’ deep passing proved to be too much for the Patriots to handle. New England will likely employ a similar defensive strategy this week and hope for a better outcome.
Jets’ Running Game vs. Patriots’ Run Defense
An effective rushing attack will serve two purposes for the Jets this week: ease the load on Sanchez and keep the Patriots’ offense on the sidelines. New York’s offense is at its best when they can pick up yardage on the ground and allow Sanchez to use play action to complete high-percentage passes. This is especially true now that Santonio Holmes, the Jets’ most explosive offensive player, is out for the season with a foot injury. Unfortunately for the Jets, their offensive line has been ineffective both individually and as a run blocking unit. With the exception of star center Nick Mangold (+7.4), each member of New York’s offensive line has a negative run blocking grade for the season. The line will have to step up on Sunday to create running room for Greene, who has not been helped by his line’s struggles this year.
Each week, Bill Belichick crafts defensive schemes to neutralize the strength of the opposing offense. While the Jets have struggled to run the ball this season, Belichick will likely try to shut down the Jets’ rushing game and force Sanchez (-1.5 passing grade) to beat the Patriots with his arm. New England’s defense features playmakers against the run at all three levels. Starting defensive ends Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich have been excellent when setting the edge this season, with cumulative run defense grades of +4.9 and +5.4, respectively, and Ninkovich ranking third at the position in Run Stop Percentage with 10.0% of his tackles on run plays causing offensive failures. This forces opposing runners back toward the middle of the defense, where linebackers Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes are waiting. While their struggles defending the deep ball have been well-documented, the Patriots boast two of the best run-defending corners in the league, with Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington both ranking in PFF’s Top 10 for run defense at their position.
Patriots Passing Game vs. Jets Pass Defense
Tom Brady has been difficult for opponents to stop this season, currently sitting third in our passing grades, behind only Matt Ryan and Eli Manning. New receiver Brandon Lloyd has fit right into the mix, providing Brady with a receiving threat outside the numbers, and making extraordinary catches look routine. Lloyd adds yet another weapon to Brady’s arsenal, joining familiar targets Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. With Aaron Hernandez making his return to the field last week after suffering an ankle injury during Week 2, the Jets figure to have their hands full.
They will also have to pay special attention to running back Danny Woodhead, the former Jet. Though Woodhead typically only sees the field in passing and third-down situations, the diminutive back has graded positively both as a runner and pass-catcher, and has demonstrated a knack for converting crucial third-and-long situations.
New York’s pass defense took a major blow early in the season when they lost superstar corner Darrelle Revis. The pass defense has held its own so far, though, ranking fifth in the league in pass yardage allowed. Fellow corner Antonio Cromartie has led the way with seven pass deflections and three interceptions, on his way to a +5.7 pass coverage grade.
While coverage at the back end of the defense has been solid, the Jets’ pass rush has been absolutely terrible. Their cumulative pass rush grade is third-worst in the league, and not a single player in the Jets’ front seven has a positive grade in this department. Calvin Pace and pass rushing specialist Aaron Maybin have been especially disappointing. Expect Rex Ryan to use a variety of exotic blitzes to generate pressure on Brady.
Patriots Running Backs vs. Jets Front Seven
Though New England annually boasts one of the league’s top aerial attacks, a newfound dedication to the run game has taken their already explosive offense to another level. Success on the ground begins up front, and the Patriots line ranks third in cumulative run blocking at this point in the season. Specifically, Ryan Wendell is PFF’s second-best run blocking center, and Gronkowski is our highest-graded tight end in this area by a wide margin. The Patriots’ backs have taken advantage of the excellent blocking in front of them, but Brandon Bolden has contributed the most on his own as his 3.05 yards after contact and seven forced missed tackles suggest. New England could use a big game from its running backs after being limited last week by a fantastic Seahawks defense.
The Jets shut down the Colts’ running game last week, but they have struggled as a unit this season. Linebackers Bart Scott and David Harris, both known as elite run defenders, have been gashed by opponents on the ground, combining for 16 missed tackles. The defensive line has been more successful and defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson has quietly submitted a stellar season. Both his cumulative run grade of +14.3 and total run stops (21) rank second only to Texans superstar JJ Watt. Wilkerson will likely find himself lined up opposite guard Dan Connolly on Sunday, and will have to take advantage of this favorable matchup to slow down the Patriots’ running game.
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