Week 13 is here, and PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.

This week’s card leans heavily on matchup edges: AD Mitchell gets a blitz rate he can exploit, Bo Nix faces a Washington defense allergic to disruption, and Demario Douglas draws the man-coverage looks he’s dominated all season. Together, they form a trio of data-backed bets with clear paths to ceiling performances.

Houston’s league-best perfect-coverage rate leaves Daniel Jones in a difficult matchup, especially for a Colts offense that has relied heavily on exploiting coverage mistakes. Meanwhile, Washington’s inability to generate disruption sets up a clean-pocket script for Bo Nix, making Denver’s passing attack and team-total overs strong targets.

The Buccaneers are being priced like an average offense, but their recent form paints a far different picture, with Tampa Bay ranking near the bottom of the league in nearly every offensive metric over the past six weeks. With Jacoby Brissett excelling on deep throws and several matchup angles tilting in Arizona’s favor, the Cardinals are a live underdog against an overvalued Tampa Bay team.

Jahmyr Gibbs enters the week as one of the league’s hottest playmakers, and his expanded receiving role under Dan Campbell gives him multiple paths to find the end zone against Green Bay.

Thanksgiving is here, and so is one of the best football slates of the season. With Packers–Lions, Chiefs–Cowboys and Bengals–Ravens headlining the holiday lineup, PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets for all three matchups, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.

All three matchups on the NFL's 2025 Thanksgiving slate have significant playoff implications, as well as betting value.

For the second straight week, the Cowboys rank as the No. 2 most improved team in our power ratings. After falling behind early, their comeback win over the Eagles delivered another ratings bump as they head into a Thanksgiving matchup with the Chiefs.

A contest between the Los Angeles Rams and Carolina Panthers is among the Week 13 games that present early betting value.

Despite being significant underdogs, the Panthers have performed well when taking seven or more points, holding a 2-1 ATS record. The 49ers defense has underperformed in the absence of Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, ranking 29th in EPA per play allowed.

Every week, we break down the matchups, data angles and player tendencies that matter most to bettors, building a library of actionable insights you can use across the season.

Saquon Barkley draws one of the week’s most favorable trench matchups, pairing his top-10 yards-before-contact profile with a Dallas defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in the same metric. Kansas City’s Hunt brings similar touchdown equity on volume alone, converting 24 of 29 short-yardage carries and owning nearly all of the Chiefs’ inside-the-5 work this season.

Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level, and the Buccaneers are struggling to stop opposing passing games.

Drake Maye is set up for an efficient, explosive performance against a Bengals defense leaking big plays and struggling to generate pressure without Trey Hendrickson. At the same time, Detroit’s receivers draw clear matchup edges against the Giants’ corners, positioning the Lions offense for another high-ceiling outing.

Tyler Shough’s aggressive play style — including the second-highest ADOT in the NFL and strong underlying grades — creates real upside as he continues to trend upward week over week. With Atlanta allowing the second-highest yards per attempt over the last five weeks, this is a quietly favorable matchup for both Shough and the Saints offense.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting into the swing of things, the PFF Player Prop Tool gives you actionable takes to beat the sportsbooks.

Dallas appears mispriced in this matchup, with Dak Prescott well equipped to counter the tight-window looks that drive most of Philadelphia’s defensive success. On the other side, the Eagles face a tougher challenge than the market suggests, especially without Lane Johnson and against a quietly improving Cowboys pass rush.

Week 12 is here, and PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets of the week, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.