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Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (-2.5) [Total: 49]
Game Overview
A tradition and rivalry that predates the NFL merger: Thanksgiving football in Detroit between the Lions and Packers. As has been the case for decades, the Lions kick off the festivities with their 86th Thanksgiving matchup. For the Packers, this will be their third straight appearance, marking their 39th all-time showing.
The NFC North rivals last faced off on the holiday in 2023, a game the Packers won outright as 8.5-point underdogs. In his first season at the helm, quarterback Jordan Love led off with a 53-yard bomb to Christian Watson, setting up the Packers' opening score and an early lead they never relinquished.
That's largely been the story for the Lions on Thanksgiving. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is now aiming to turn the tide on its 1-3 Thanksgiving record. The team holds a 50% cover rate and an 0-2 mark against the spread as favorites in that span. However, that trend is out of the norm for Campbell’s Lions, who are an NFL-best 27-15 against the spread at home since 2021.
On the other sideline, Matt LaFleur’s Packers have covered each of their past two games on Turkey Day but face a tough road challenge this time around, given their difficulties covering the spread this season. They hold just a 1-4 against-the-spread record on the road this season, as well as an 0-1 mark as the underdog.
In a tight race for the NFC North, this game will carry some animosity. The Packers handled the Lions in their first matchup of the season in Week 1, but can they repeat that effort on the road?
QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: Over 19.5 completions (-110)
When the Lions and Packers met in Week 1, Love dropped back just 23 times, completing 16 of his passes. With Green Bay leading by multiple scores for the majority of the game, the team's offense called pass plays on just 50% of snaps — the Packers' second-lowest mark of the season, and a 7.5-percentage-point decrease in their pass play rate over the 10 games to follow.
Detroit will host this time around, and the expectation is that it will be a much closer game, opening the Packers up to throw more. Love has eclipsed this completions line in three of his past five games and now faces a man-coverage-heavy Lions defense he can attack. He has flourished against man coverage this season, earning the second-highest PFF passing grade against man looks in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys [Total: 52.5]
Game Overview
This will be the 58th time the Dallas Cowboys have suited up on Thanksgiving, playing host for the better part of the past 50 years. Their history on Turkey Day has been among the best, posting a .605 win percentage. And that isn’t all the excellence of an acclaimed franchise that dominated generations ago. Dallas has experienced recent success, as well, claiming victory in each of the team's past three Thanksgiving showings, to go along with a 2-1 record against the spread.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, haven’t seen the field on Thanksgiving for almost two decades, last making an appearance in 2006. They won that game at home, 19-10, over the Denver Broncos — and covered as one-point favorites — behind a massive 157-yard performance from Larry Johnson.
However, the 2025 campaign brings new challenges for both franchises. For the Chiefs, the glimpses of the explosive offense that made them a dynasty have returned. Yet, that success has seemingly struggled to translate in betting markets on the road, as they hold just a 1-4 against-the-spread record away from the confines of Arrowhead Stadium.
That may spell trouble for Dallas' defense, which has struggled for the majority of the year. Yet, the unit may be looking up after an influx of talent around the trade deadline, notably acquiring Quinnen Williams and seeing key defenders return from injury. Over their past two games, the Cowboys have propelled themselves into the top 12 in EPA per play allowed, a drastic improvement over the team's 31st-ranked unit before a Week 10 bye.
QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 263.5 passing yards (-115)
Mahomes has been dealing over the past two months, posting more than 270 passing yards in six of his past eight games. That production has propelled the Chiefs' offense to new heights, with their 0.118 EPA per play ranking second best in the NFL. It's also their highest mark through Week 12 since the 2022 season.
This week, the Chiefs’ passing game draws a plus matchup against a Cowboys defense that has struggled to restrict passers from filling up the stat sheet, ranking 31st in passing yardage allowed. Mahomes can take advantage of a Dallas secondary that runs zone coverage at a top-five rate in the NFL. He has been incredibly efficient against zone, generating the highest EPA per play against those looks.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7) [Total: 52]
Game Overview
It’s been more than a decade since the Bengals or Ravens have graced the field on Thanksgiving.
The Bengals’ struggles have been far-reaching in 2025. They have won just once since mid-September, when they lost quarterback Joe Burrow to an injury that sidelined him for nine games. As a result, Cincinnati has covered just four games this season.
While the Bengals haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the postseason, their margin to make a playoff push (0.7%) is slim. A loss would effectively eliminate them from contention. However, Burrow is back, so expect this team to fight tooth and nail to take down their division rivals in an attempt to salvage that minute chance. That scenario would bode well for their chance to cover as touchdown underdogs.
What doesn’t bode well for Cincinnati’s chances is the “why” regarding the touchdown spread of this game. The Ravens have been on a tear — having won five games in a row — and are now in a tie for first place in the AFC North. With a renewed defensive identity and Lamar Jackson back leading the charge, the Ravens have produced a 12.8-point average victory margin over the stretch. They have eyes on taking sole possession of the division, so don’t expect the Ravens to lay down at home.
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals: Under 14.5 rushing attempts (-118)
Since the start of the 2024 season, no team has run the ball at a lower rate than the Bengals (31.6%), due in large part to their frequent deficits. As a result, Brown has gone under this line in seven of his 11 games this season.
With Joe Burrow set to make his return, and the Bengals matched against a high-powered Ravens offense, the game state may not project favorably to a rushing script for Cincinnati. Moving Kyle Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage in Week 6 has transformed a Ravens defense that had struggled mightily through the first five games. Since that switch, Baltimore ranks first in EPA per rush allowed. The Bengals’ running game could get stifled early, making this line difficult to reach for Brown.
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