- Baker Mayfield isn't himself right now: The Week 7–12 version of this Bucs team ranks fifth-worst in EPA per play, last in EPA per dropback and near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category.
- A favorable spot for Jacoby Brissett: Brissett ranks fourth in the NFL in EPA on deep passes, even though he hasn’t pushed the ball downfield at a high rate. That could change against Tampa Bay, as opponents have attacked the Buccaneers vertically at one of the highest rates in the league. Over the past six weeks, Tampa Bay has faced the third-highest average depth of target.
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Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, focusing on specific bets first.
In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.
While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.
Arizona Cardinals -2.5/-5.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Let’s begin, as always, with the team fundamentals to understand how the market is pricing this matchup and set the baseline for our analysis. To find value, we first need to identify what the market is implying — and where our view diverges.
Both the Cardinals and Buccaneers have been essentially average this season, performing in nearly identical ranges across the board, with Arizona fielding a slightly worse defensive profile.
No matter which efficiency chart you choose, the story is the same: these teams have played to almost equal strength. With Tampa Bay favored by 4 at home, the market is implying a meaningful performance gap that hasn’t really existed over the whole season.
But the teams entering Week 13 aren’t perfect reflections of their season-long selves. The Cardinals have shifted from Kyler Murray to Jacoby Brissett, and Baker Mayfield has been a completely different quarterback since suffering his injury in Week 6.
Mayfield has been one of the league’s worst starting quarterbacks over the past month, ranking near the bottom of the NFL in yards per dropback and earning one of the lowest PFF grades among starters. He’s now logged five straight weeks with negative EPA per play and is clearly not the same quarterback he was earlier in the season — and, by extension, the Buccaneers are no longer the same offense.
Blending their early-season output with their recent form to label Tampa Bay an “average” offense misses the mark. The Week 7–12 version of this team ranks fifth-worst in EPA per play, last in dropback EPA and near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category. And if that recent version is the more accurate reflection of who the Buccaneers are right now, then the market’s pricing leaves significant value on the fundamentals.
And the Cardinals are finally getting reinforcements. Will Johnson — PFF’s 12th-ranked cornerback — is set to return to a secondary that injuries had previously decimated, while Marvin Harrison Jr. returned to practice and should be ready to rejoin the offense.
With Jacoby Brissett already playing better than Kyler Murray — averaging two more yards per dropback with higher PFF grades and better accuracy numbers — this matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions from a fundamentals standpoint.
Matchup Angles
Brissett and the Cardinals' offense have been most successful on deep passes.
Brissett ranks fourth in the NFL in EPA on deep passes, even though he hasn’t pushed the ball downfield at a high rate. That could change against Tampa Bay, as opponents have attacked the Buccaneers vertically at one of the highest rates in the league. Over the past six weeks, Tampa Bay has faced the third-highest average depth of target.
The Buccaneers’ coverage has also been unstable, making mistakes at the fifth-highest rate since their bye and posting a coverage rate of just 37%.
Brissett, meanwhile, has faced a high rate of perfect coverage this season but has been above average when defenses make coverage mistakes.
With the Buccaneers allowing more of those breakdowns, Brissett should see a few more mistake-driven opportunities than he’s used to, which can meaningfully boost his performance in this matchup (especially with Harrison back in the lineup).
On the flipside, this Cardinals defense has increased its blitz rate by 70% from pre-bye to post-bye, shifting from a bottom-four blitz team to a top-four one.
Mayfield has also been far worse against the blitz this season than against standard rush looks. And if we isolate the post-injury sample over the last six weeks, Mayfield would land in the same range as J.J. McCarthy and Joe Flacco on this graph.
All of this sets up a sneaky good spot for the Cardinals against an overvalued Buccaneers team, with several matchup angles — especially in the passing game on both sides — breaking in Arizona’s favor.
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