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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the markets most suited to a given thesis or angle.
Patriots QB Drake Maye excels in the deep-passing game against a struggling Bengals defense
PFF has studied the importance of explosive plays to NFL offenses and their correlation with scoring at the drive level.
And this Bengals defense has been bleeding those chunk gains, allowing a 10% explosive-pass rate, effectively tied for the worst mark in the league.
On the Patriots side, Drake Maye has been outstanding when throwing the ball downfield this season, leading the NFL in EPA per play on deep throws — putting him in a prime spot to attack a Bengals defense that is leaking explosive plays.
What strengthens the case even further is Cincinnati’s inability to generate pressure without Trey Hendrickson. The Bengals rank second-to-last in disruption pressure and third-worst in quick-pressure rate, which is critical because Maye’s biggest weakness so far has been his 9% sack rate and 23% pressure-to-sack rate.
Against a defense struggling to hurry the quarterback, Maye should be kept clean, kept upright and able to fully unlock the Patriots’ passing game. I’ll be on Patriots alts, Maye overs and SGPs built around an efficient, explosive Maye performance.
Detroit Lions dominate New York Giants‘ man coverage
PFF has examined how different coverages shape offensive outcomes and found that man and zone produce very different distributions of results. In man coverage, talent discrepancies show up far more clearly, with superior wide receivers beating lesser cornerbacks — and weaker receivers struggling against top-tier corners — at a much higher rate than they do in zone.
And in this matchup, the Lions have two of the most dominant man-coverage receivers in the league. Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown both rank near the top of the NFL in yards per route run and separation against man, giving Detroit a clear edge when defenses line up in single coverage.
And they’ll have major matchup advantages across the board against the Giants’ cornerbacks — none of whom land in the “top-right” quadrant of separating and making plays on the ball.
The Lions are built for offensive success here — exactly what the market is implying — but there’s still value in just how explosive this offense can be. With elite man-beaters on the perimeter and a run game positioned for efficiency, multiple Detroit players have a path to ceiling performances. I’ll be on Lions onslaught SGPs and Lions alts, telling the story of a massive, highly efficient day through the air.
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