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Denver Broncos (-5.5) vs. Washington Commanders [Total: 43.5]
Game Overview
The Broncos and Commanders are well rested entering this primetime matchup, coming off Week 12 byes. It's good timing for both teams as they aim to get healthier down the stretch, with each returning key playmakers this week. Denver cornerback Pat Surtain II and Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin are both set to make their returns from injury, just in time for a high-profile face-off that could go a long way toward deciding this game.
The Broncos, looking to extend an eight-game winning streak, enter as road favorites, a spot they have struggled in this season. Away from Mile High Stadium this season, Denver holds a 40% cover rate, including an 0-2 record against the spread as the favorite.
As for the Commanders, the losses are mounting. They are looking to snap a six-game skid — all defeats in which they failed to cover. The story has been the same in betting markets all season for this team, as they maintain a 3-8 record against the spread, with their last home cover coming back in Week 3.
Washington is still missing quarterback Jayden Daniels, so the team's chances of covering this game lie with Marcus Mariota, who has performed relatively well during his time as the starter this season, earning a top-10 PFF overall grade (78.6) at the position. That will be put to the test against a Broncos defense that allows the lowest success rate (32.1%) in the NFL on pass plays.
On the Broncos' sideline, covering as steep road favorites will rely on whether Bo Nix and the offense can sustain early production. The Commanders' defense comes in well below the NFL average in most key defensive metrics, but it remains to be seen if Denver can capitalize. Consistency has been touch-and-go for Sean Payton’s offense this season, as the group ranks in the bottom five in percentage of plays generating positive EPA (41.0%).
Combine those two factors, and scoring may be more limited, giving credence to the PFF model’s slight under projection for this matchup.
RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., Washington Commanders: Under 41.5 rushing yards (-113)
The Commanders' backfield has shifted toward Chris Rodriguez Jr. after his pair of strong outings as the focal point of the ground game, but Jacory Croskey-Merritt hasn’t been pushed out of the picture. Since Rodriguez’s ascension in Week 9, the backfield split has been even between the two backs, with each totaling a 43.4% share of the workload. Although Rodriguez has been more productive, splitting the workload down the middle makes reaching production thresholds much more difficult.
The Broncos' defense ranks in the top five in PFF run-defense grade (75.7), so running lanes may be few and far between. The defense’s biggest asset against the run is its ability to limit explosive plays, having allowed the fewest rushes of 10 or more yards (11) on designed carries in the NFL.
Schematically, the Commanders’ power running game may struggle to generate push against a Broncos defense that allows the third-lowest EPA per play mark against gap, power, counter and pull-lead concepts. That doesn’t bode well for Rodriguez, who has generated 58.8% of his production this season from gap and counter runs.
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