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Week 12 is nearly a wrap, and betting lines are now available for Week 13. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) vs. Carolina Panthers [Total: 45.5]
Best Bet: Rams -9.5
The Rams are coming off a dismantling of the NFC South leaders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, in a game that was decided well before halftime. The performance underscored Los Angeles' dominance on both sides of the ball, and the team now leads the NFL EPA per play earned (0.172) and allowed (-0.205) since a Week 8 bye.
With Matthew Stafford at the helm of Sean McVay’s offense, the Rams' passing game looks nearly flawless. The odds-on favorite to win the MVP leads the NFL in PFF passing grade and has been putting even the best defenses in knots. The Panthers' defense doesn’t stand in the upper echelon of the NFL. In fact, their coverage unit has struggled this season, particularly over the past month, having allowed the fifth-highest EPA per dropback in the league.
With losses in their past two home games, the Panthers are searching for some consistency. Their offense operates best when finding success on the ground with Rico Dowdle. But that will be a difficult task against a Rams front that ranks third in EPA per rush allowed over the past four games.
Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-7) [Total: 44.5]
Best Bet: Bears +7
The Eagles' offense had a terrific first few series against the Cowboys‘ defense in Week 12, but the team struggled immensely after that. Worst of all, Philadelphia's ground game was again stifled, this time by a poor Dallas run defense.
The Eagles' issues were exposed once more in the defeat. The team can't run the ball, especially without star tackle Lane Johnson, and quarterback Jalen Hurts is sensitive to pressure. When the ground game isn't working, this isn't the same unit.
On the other side, the Bears‘ offense continued to hum on the ground in Week 12, providing the team with a high floor for success. Quarterback Caleb Williams continues to showcase terrific escapability, too, helping Chicago's offense stall out less often and put points on the board. With a large seven-point spread currently separating these teams, the inconsistency of the Eagles‘ offense combined with the floor of the Bears' offense makes this an attractive bet.
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