NFL Week 12 Betting: Prop bets to target

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These are some of the best player prop bets to target in Week 12 for the 2025 NFL season.

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RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Under 82.5 rushing yards (-113)

With quarterback Michael Penix Jr. out for the remainder of the year and wide receiver Drake London already ruled out for Week 12, the Falcons are down key contributors on offense. In Kirk Cousins‘ limited time under center this season, the Falcons' offensive efficiency has nosedived.

The weight of the Falcons‘ offense now rests on Bijan Robinson’s shoulders. While the dynamic back is capable, it’ll be difficult to find space to work with if the Saints load the box and force Cousins to beat them. The Dolphins took that same approach in Cousins’ previous start — coincidentally, a game where Drake London was also out — which resulted in Robinson finding little room to maneuver, finishing with just 25 yards on the ground.

Saints defensive coordinator Brandon Staley isn’t afraid to deploy that strategy, having called the fourth-most plays with eight or more defenders in the box. That approach has netted positive results against the run, with the Saints ranking in the top eight in team PFF run-defense grade (71.9), EPA per rush allowed (-0.124) and yards per carry average on designed runs (3.7).  

To make matters worse, both of the Falcons’ starting guards, Chris Lindstrom and Matthew Bergeron, are questionable to play. It would be a heavy loss if either is unable to go, as both rank in the top 12 in PFF run-blocking grade among qualifying guards this season. 

RB Brashard Smith, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 2.5 rushing attempts (+115)

Smith is in line to be more involved against the Colts amid Isiah Pacheco‘s absence. This bet has the highest projected value of any pick on the market for Week 12, according to the PFF Player Prop Tool, with a massive 72.4% edge. Smith’s projection of 3.64 rushing attempts puts his cover probability at 80.2%.

Although the first-year back hasn’t been heavily involved in the Chiefs’ rushing attack this season, he has managed to record three or more carries in three of his past four games. He isn’t an afterthought in Kansas City's offensive game plan, as head coach Andy Reid looks to get him the ball in unique ways to attack the edge and find space.  

Smith can be a pivotal weapon against the Colts‘ defense, given the unit's struggles in slowing down rushing attacks this season. Indianapolis ranks 21st in both team PFF run-defense grade (62.5) and EPA per rush allowed (-0.054).