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Thanksgiving is here, and so is one of the best football slates of the season. With Packers–Lions, Chiefs–Cowboys and Bengals–Ravens headlining the holiday lineup, PFF’s analysts have locked in their favorite bets for all three matchups, powered by the PFF Player Prop Tool.
Our picks enter Thanksgiving at 35-33-4 on the season. Here are our analysts’ favorite bets for the holiday slate.
Trevor Sikkema (7-5)
QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: Under 3.5 carries (-175 BetMGM)
Jordan Love and the Packers head to Detroit on Thanksgiving for a pivotal NFC North matchup. His rushing total is set at 3.5 — right in line with his average over the past month —, but he’s cleared that number only four times this season.
Quarterback rush props are always vulnerable to kneel-downs, but even with that caveat, the under is the play here.
Dalton Wasserman (7-5)
RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 35.5 rushing yards (-108 DraftKings)
Isiah Pacheco is expected to return this week, which should significantly cut into Hunt’s workload. In the eight games Pacheco has played this season, Hunt has reached at least 35 rushing yards only twice. The matchup doesn’t help either — Dallas has turned things around defensively, ranking fourth in run-defense grade since Week 9.
Ben Linsey (9-3)
WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 3.5 receptions (+112 FanDuel)
Worthy saw a noticeable shift in usage last week, running more crossing routes (27% vs. 16% before Week 12) and more in- or out-breaking routes (27% vs. 20%). That’s a strong indication Kansas City is trying to involve him beyond deep clear-outs and screens. With this matchup projecting as a competitive, high-scoring game and Kansas City likely to throw often, I’m betting on Worthy’s upward trajectory continuing, especially against a Dallas cornerback group that ranks last this season in average separation allowed.
Mason Cameron (4-7-1)
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals: Under 14.5 carries (-118)
No team has run the ball less over the past two seasons than the Bengals, who sit at a league-low 31.6% rush rate. That volume shows up in Brown’s results — he has fallen under this line in seven of his 11 games this year. With Joe Burrow potentially returning and a high-powered Ravens offense on the other sideline, this shapes up as a matchup where Cincinnati may abandon the run early if it stalls.
That’s a likely outcome against a Ravens defense that has taken a major leap since moving Kyle Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage. Since that adjustment in Week 6, Baltimore leads the NFL in EPA allowed per rush (-0.222), making this an even tougher spot for sustained rushing production.
Max Chadwick (4-6-2)
QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: Over 4.5 rush attempts (-105 Fanatics)
Williams has cleared this number in five of his last 10 games and ranks sixth among quarterbacks in rushing attempts this season (56), averaging 5.1 per game. The Eagles have the seventh-worst defense in the league when it comes to defending quarterback scrambles and have allowed at least five rushing attempts from quarterbacks in five of their 11 games this season.
With the Bears entering Black Friday as 7-point underdogs, Williams should have the ball in his hands plenty, increasing the chances he gets there again on the ground.
Gordon McGuinness (4-7-1)
WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: Anytime TD (-137 Caesars)
With Tee Higgins out, the Bengals' passing game — and a returning Joe Burrow — is likely to funnel heavily toward Ja'Marr Chase as he comes back from suspension. Chase already leads the team with 18 red-zone targets this season, and no other Bengals receiver who will be on the field Thursday has more than five.
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