These two potential playoff teams went in different directions during the month of October. The Houston Texans are riding a three-game winning streak where they allowed 33 total points while averaging nearly 33 of their own in that span. They seem to have a firm hold on the division and can now set their sights on a first round bye.
On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost three of their last four and have been bitten by the injury bug as their top receivers and defensive tackles are hurting. They've fallen to third place in the division and appear destined to a fate similar to last year: a pretty good record but no playoffs.
You’ll find no rivalries here, just some good ol’ football
Running Up The Middle
Now that Arian Foster (+11.5) is healthy and hitting his stride, he and fellow running back Ben Tate (+5.2) are forming a strong one-two punch and both players were good enough to make the All-PFF team last week. While they do more damage running outside than in, it’s hard to resist pounding the ball up the middle when you have Chris Myers (+25.8) as your center. When running up the middle, these two backs have produced 429 yards on 100 carries and have scored four touchdowns, forcing nine missed tackles along the way. The Buccaneers have a big weakness in the middle that the Texans can and should exploit.
Tampa Bay is hurting at defensive tackle, with their best, Gerald McCoy (+5.5), lost for the season and their next-best, Frank Okam (-1.7), questionable again after missing last week. That leaves Brian Price (-13.3) and Roy Miller (-8.7) as their starting tackles. That duo has combined for 12 stops on the season, a figure which 21 individual DTs can match or exceed. Last week the Tamps run D allowed seven yards per carry against the New Orleans Saints, and in the game before, Matt Forte put up 145 yards and made seven defenders miss tackles. With the D desperate for help, they've gone against their philosophy of building with young players and brought in Albert Haynesworth (+0.5 run defense) this week. Even with him, the Texans' run game should be dominant.
Buccaneers Defensive Weapon Neutralized
The only star on the Buccaneers’ defense has been third-year defensive end Michael Bennett (+17.6). He has been averaging three pressures and two stops per game. His play against the run has been unmatched by any other defensive end in the league, and the amount of pressure he brings doesn’t hurt his case at all.
The problem is that he spends over 95% of his snaps lined up at left defensive end, which puts him across from PFF All-Pro right tackle Eric Winston (+8.1). Over the last four games Winston has allowed just three total pressures, and no other right tackle in the AFC has had a higher run block rating. The best right tackle that Bennett has faced prior to this point was Tyson Clabo (+2.8) who is having a down year. It will be interesting to see if it's the solid Winston or the upward-shooting Bennett who emerges as the victor.
Attacking Houston’s Weakness
If there is a weakness anywhere on this Texans team, it’s at the second cornerback spot. Houston is starting second-year man, Kareem Jackson (-3.9 coverage), who, over the last three weeks, has been on for 63% of their defensive snaps. The other 37% have gone to Jason Allen (-3.5 coverage) who typically plays for a few drives at a time in each game. Jackson has allowed 63.6% of passes thrown his way to be caught for an average of 15.5 yards per reception; neither are particularly good marks. While Allen’s numbers are better in both of those categories, he has allowed 88 yards after the catch, noteworthy considering his limited snaps.
If you want to find success in the passing game, it would likely come against whichever of these two is on the field, but for that to happen a Tampa Bay receiver would need to step up. The man most capable of doing this is Dezmon Briscoe (+0.3) who has caught 81% of passes thrown his way while producing a solid 14.2 yards per catch. He has only been targeted more than four times once this year, but give the opportunity he could shine on Sunday.
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