Just a year ago, the Seahawks and the Rams were the top two teams in the NFC West, and the last time they played it was to decide who would make the playoffs. The two of them have combined to win five games this year. While that doesn’t sound too impressive, three of those victories did come against the Saints, Ravens and Giants. Each of these teams is capable of winning this one, and whoever pulls it out will be on a two-game winning streak for the first time this season.
These two teams rank in the Bottom 5 in terms of offense and the they've scored more than 20 points only four times so far this year. So, we can expect a low scoring game, but some one has to end up on top. Here are the three matchups that will help decide which will walk away with a victory.
Stopping Steven
A big reason that St. Louis has won two of their last three games is because Steven Jackson (+6.2 run) has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over that time … and he's had at least 25 carries in each game. He hasn’t gotten as much help from the offensive line as he would like, which has led to him doing most of the work himself; forcing 12 missed tackles in those three games.
However, facing the Saints', Cardinals', and Browns' run defenses is nothing like facing what Seattle offers. In the Seahawks' last game, the Ravens decided to avoid the run all together and gave Ray Rice just five carries. All seven players in the Seattle defensive line rotation have positive run defense grades, as do each of the starting linebackers. I would expect the Seahawks to get to Jackson quickly, and have enough players around him to limit his yards after the initial contact. This takes away what has been the key to the Rams' offense in the games they've won, so if St. Louis is going to earn the “W” here, they'll need to do it on the arm of Sam Bradford.
Breno Giacomini vs. Chris Long
The Rams have one clear strength on defense, and unfortunately for the Seahawks he will be lined up against Seattle's biggest offensive weakness. Over the past three games Chris Long (+22.7 pass rush) has been unstoppable; collecting 26 overall pressures on 112 pass rushes, or 23% of pass plays. Getting that much pressure in so few opportunities is basically unheard of. He always lines up on the left side of the defense, which means most of the time he will be across from the right tackle. For most of the season that was James Carpenter (-16.3 pass block), but he tore his ACL in practice on Wednesday is out for the year. His replacement is likely Breno Giacomini (-5.7) who has started just one game in his career, and in that game allowed two pressures, two hits and a sack. If things hold true, expect Tarvaris Jackson (+13.9) to be under some sort of pressure for at least a quarter of his attempts; a spot that has seen him end up nearly as many sacks (22) and interceptions (six) as completions (33). It’s not very often that a single defensive player completely takes over a game, but it is certainly possible in this one.
Strength vs. Strength
While the first two matchups to watch for were where one team should dominate, there is one that is more evenly matched. Seattle’s clear star on the offensive line is center Max Unger (+8.6). He started as a rookie in 2009 and played very well in pass protection though not as well as a run blocker. He missed most of last year, and now that he is healthy again he has yet to allow a sack or a hit. He has also dramatically improved his run blocking, where the Seahawks' runners have averaged 4.4 yards per carry running up the middle, and 3.5 yards per carry elsewhere. Most of the time he will be challenged by either Fred Robbins (+4.2 run defense) or Justin Bannan (+6.1 run defense). Neither will be much of a threat at rushing the quarterback, but they both have 11 stops on the year, and will be an adequate challenge for Unger. Winning this battle will go a long way toward determining whether the Seahawks' ground game will be successful … and, in turn, will be a big factor in the outcome of the game.
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