It all comes down to this in the AFC, the most one dimensional team in the league and a balanced team that has seemingly only really hit its stride in two games this season. Who will win the day and advance to Indianapolis to play a Super Bowl in the home stadium of a bitter rival of both teams? Will it be the Patriots carried by the passing attack of Messrs.’ Brady, Gronkowski, Hernandez and Welker? Or will it be the balanced, but arguably underachieving Ravens team looking to take a step forwards and crown their fourth straight playoff appearance with a first Super Bowl berth in more than a decade?
It can be spun in either way as to which unit matchup is the most important. Is it more important that the Ravens defense elevates its level of play and chops the Patriots one dimensional offense down to size? Or is it more important that Joe Flacco raises his game, under pressure from his own All Pro safety Ed Reed, and puts in a quality performance in the most important game of his career to date? The correct answer is probably somewhere between the two and the Ravens enter this game knowing what they have to do on both sides of the ball, whilst everybody knows what the Patriots are all about and what they will look to do. At this stage of the season it comes down to execution, are the Patriots merely here because of a weak schedule or will they prove in this game that they have merely beaten what has been in front of them and the Ravens will just be another road bump to their first Super Bowl appearance since the defeat they’d rather forget?
Last Meeting: Baltimore 20 – New England 23 (OT) (Week 6, 2010)
The Ravens and Patriots did not meet this season but have met three times in the previous two seasons with the Patriots holding an edge of 2-1 courtesy of their overtime victory in 2010 last season. Tom Brady’s efficiency in that game was held in check as he only completed 27-of-42 aimed passes whilst throwing two interceptions to only one touchdown. However it wasn’t enough for the Ravens on that day, Joe Flacco had one of his better games completing 27-of-33 for 285 yards and threw no interceptions, but the Ravens running game failed to get on track. This game showed what a narrow margin of error the Ravens have, their quarterback arguably had the better of the QB duel, but they still came out on the losing side. The Ravens will want a repeat of their playoff victory in 2009 where early big plays allowed them to establish a lead they never relinquished.
Establishing the ground game
If the Ravens are to control the clock and control time of possession then they must establish the ground game and crucial to that will be the play of their guards Ben Grubbs (+2.6 run blocking) and Marshal Yanda (+7.2 run blocking) along with veteran center Matt Birk (+1.2). The Ravens like to attack the middle of a defense, as they ran 157 times between the guards this season and 113 off the outside shoulder of their guards picking up 4.3 yards per carry on rushes through the A and B gaps this season, only Houston attempted more rushes to the interior of a defense this season. The Ravens will face a stern test if they look to this area again this week with the big bodies of Vince Wilfork (+8.8 run defense) and Kyle Love (+9.2 run defense) patrolling the middle of the Patriots defense to good effect this season. If Ray Rice is to have the sort of impact on this game as a runner that the Ravens desperately need him to the Ravens interior trio need to win and the potential tipping point in this pivotal encounter could come in the colossal matchup between Ravens FB Vonta Leach and returning Patriot MLB Brandon Spikes. If Leach can contain and control Spikes the Ravens could have a great deal of success on the ground this week but if Spikes can work downhill and be a disruptive force in the backfield a greater burden is likely to fall on Joe Flacco and the Raven passing attack. Leach and Spikes should be one of the best one on one matchups to watch in this weekend’s games.
The Gronkowski-Hernandez Connection
It is unlikely that any two players he has faced this season will have been giving Baltimore defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano more sleepless nights than Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. There may be “greater” talents at receiver and running back but no two players right now offer a more head scratching matchup than the Patriots twin terrors at tight end. Do you cover them as receivers and bring in sub packages? Well that’s a danger as Gronkowski’s in line blocking is good enough to allow BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley to make gains on the ground. Do you treat them as base players and keep in your base defense? Do that and you’ll struggle to cover them with your linebackers and safeties as they have shown all season long. The Ravens have faced only a handful of quality receiving tight ends all season and fared quite well against Antonio Gates (2 receptions, 31 yards), Vernon Davis (4 receptions, 38 yards) and Owen Daniels (4 receptions, 39 yards in two games). However Gronkowski and Hernandez are a whole different beast. Will the Ravens load the mid zones to take away these two and dare Brady to beat their outside corners with his perimeter receivers? It’s a dangerous game to play but can the Ravens really just let Brady march up and down the field by trying to play a balanced defense and cover all of his threats at once?
Passing to the perimeter
In the last three games between these two teams the Ravens have held the Patriots to an average of 21 points (21.3 if we’re being precise) per game, so the onus is likely on the Ravens offense to find four or possibly five touchdowns in this game to seal their Super Bowl pass. The entire burden for yards and points cannot fall on the running game so Joe Flacco has to step up and get help for the Ravens to walk out of Foxborough, MA with a victory. Flacco’s overall body of work this season has been substandard this year, but to his credit he has shown up well in the Ravens handful of big games this season. His performance in Pittsburgh is the one he needs to draw on for this game as he elevated himself above the play of his receivers who seemed determined to drop every pass he threw their way. Flacco’s five highest graded games this season have come against playoff teams. If Flacco is to contribute to a Ravens victory he needs help, Anquan Boldin fitted straight back into the starting lineup with a 73 yard game against Houston and he needs to make the most of a favorable matchup against a porous New England secondary. However Boldin cannot do it all himself, it is all too easy to take away one receiver if he is a team’s only threat and Bill Belicheck should be able to do this even with the corners and safeties he has at his disposal. The tight end pairing of Ed Dickson (+1.1 receiving) and Dennis Pitta (+8.5 receiving) have the potential to contribute but it is rookie Torrey Smith (-1.2 receiver) who has the greatest potential to change this game. A big play from Smith could not only change the complexion of the game of the scoreboard but also in terms of what the Patriot defense has to respect. Not too much pressure on the rookie at all, but in one play he holds the potential open up the game for the Ravens offense to forge a path to Indianapolis.
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