Three to Focus On: Panthers @ Buccaneers, Week 13

It’s not often two division rivals first see each other in Week 13, but that’s what we have as the Carolina Panthers take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week.

Built similarly, these teams feature promising young quarterbacks but underwhelming defenses. The Panthers were expected to struggle while breaking in rookie QB Cam Newton, and even though he has exceeded first-year expectations, the Panthers have limped to a 3-8 record.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, had high hopes after Josh Freeman’s breakout season and an influx of youth to the defensive line, but the year has not gone as planned. Freeman has seemingly regressed, particularly since Week 3, and the defense has been terrible. Instead of competing for a playoff spot, the Bucs find themselves trying to avoid the cellar in the NFC South.

QBs of the Future

When discussing the best young quarterbacks in the league, the list often starts with Cam Newton (+33.3) and Josh Freeman (+14.2). Newton silenced most of his critics by becoming an instant playmaker, particularly when throwing the ball. Everyone knows he can make plays with his legs, as his 10 rushing touchdowns attest, but it’s his ability to make big time throws from the pocket that took many by surprise. He was leading our Deep Passing Signature Stat for much of the season and he is still third in the league in yards on deep passes. After starting the season 25-for-55 on such throws, he's gone just 1-for-12 for 26 yards in his last three games. It may be the rookie wall, or perhaps teams are starting to respect his ability to throw, but getting the ball downfield was an early-season strength the Panthers would like to see again. Newton’s athleticism can mask a lot of deficiencies, but he has flashed such incredible potential in his first year, that anything less than superstardom will be a disappointment.

While Newton seems to have lost his deep ball touch, Freeman has had trouble in the intermediate passing game. Perhaps his biggest strength last year was his ability to drive the ball between 10-19 yards and he finished the season completing 58% of such throws for 907 yards, 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. This season, though, he has only completed 44% of his intermediate throws with a pair of touchdowns and eight interceptions. The change has been a result of not only inaccuracy, but also indecision, and if Freeman wants to regain his 2010 form as a Pro-Bowl-caliber QB, he has to get better at making these throws.

Panthers Defensive Line vs. Bucs Offensive Line

When discussing the Panthers’ pass rush, it starts and ends with two guys. DEs Charles Johnson (+11.3) and Greg Hardy (+11.0) have supplied 53% of all Carolina QB disruptions with 36 and 34 respectively. Johnson and Hardy will move around to both defensive end spots so they will both so a lot of left tackle Donald Penn (+9.3) and right tackle Jeremy Trueblood (-17.3). Penn has been the lone bright spot on our 28th-best pass blocking offensive line (85.2 Pass Block Efficiency), while Trueblood has struggled in every facet of the game. Penn had a strong game run blocking last week, particularly at the 11:41 mark of the first quarter when he drove Tennessee Titans defensive tackle Jurrell Casey halfway across the field.

On the inside, it’s been a tough season for a pair of third round picks in DTs Terrell McClain (-18.9) and Sione Fua (-6.6). Both rank in the bottom 10 among defensive tackles with McClain grading as the worst in the league. For the Bucs, all of their interior offensive linemen are grading in the red, although LG Jeremy Zuttah (-2.2) has had some bright moments. If he can avoid committing three penalties like he did last week, he can have some impact in the running game, particularly against the struggling rookies.

Panthers Linebackers vs. LaGarrette Blount

One way to make a giant leap in our Elusive Rating is to break six tackles on one play as RB LaGarrette Blount did in Week 11 against the Green Bay Packers. As one of our PFF members mentioned on Twitter, we may need to overhaul the rating based on the ridiculousness of that one run. For now, Blount sits at second in the league with his 65.1 Elusive Rating and he appears to be picking up steam with two strong games in a row.

The Panthers’ slew of injuries to their linebacker corps combined with the struggles up front has resulted in a terrible run defense. The lone bright spot has been LB Dan Connor whose +10.2 run grade is easily best on the team. 26 of Connor’s 39 tackles have been stops, but he will need better play around him to slow down Blount. LB James Anderson has had a disappointing season after a breakout 2010, and his 11 Missed Tackles are tied for second among 4-3 OLBs. If the trends continue, Blount may find himself dodging and carrying a number of tacklers again on Sunday.