It’s a battle to become the “top of the bottom of the barrel.” At least that’s how running back Maurice Jones-Drew sees this game. Just one year after the AFC South division crown came down to the final weeks, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts find themselves with a combined two wins and are both clearly at the bottom of that barrel. Indianapolis’ players are surely sick of hearing about that quarterback from Stanford, but at this point, it’s well deserved. Not only are they winless, but they come into this game with our 27th best offense and our worst ranked defense. They haven’t come close to winning in weeks and have been outscored 120-24 in their last three games. Enter the first possible remedy for 2011’s disaster: the Jaguars.
Jacksonville has made amazing strides defensively in 2011, but trotting out the worst offense in the league has them sitting at 2-6. They have scored 20 points in a game only once, and not much has gone right to this point. The offensive line has had moving parts, the wide receivers have not made plays and rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert has taken his expected first year lumps (and then some). Even with their incompetent offense, the Jaguars come into this game as rare favorites and will try to push the Colts one game closer to 2008 Detroit Lions’ immortality.
Gabbert’s First chance to Break Out?
It has not been a good start to Blaine Gabbert’s career, but to his credit he has gone up against some of the best defenses in the league. This week may be his chance to shine, as he goes up against the Colts and their league worst -79.6 rated defense. Gabbert has struggled mightily in all areas, but he has been particularly bad when facing pressure, completing only 39% of his passes. This week, his biggest concerns will be with the usual suspects, defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. They have supplied an amazing 59% of the Colts’ total quarterback disruptions, and have the only positive pass rush grades on the defense. If offensive tackles Eugene Monroe and Guy Whimper can keep them in check, Gabbert will have a chance to complete passes against a terrible Colts’ secondary. Gabbert’s string of facing tough defenses comes to an end this week and this will be his best chance to show his potential as a future franchise quarterback.
Colts Running Backs vs. Jaguars Linebackers
Despite the team’s struggles this year, the Colts’ running game has shown signs of life in recent weeks. Running back Donald Brown (+2.1) has played well and although he had a tough game last week, rookie running back Delone Carter (-3.8) has looked like good value from a fourth round rookie. For the Jaguars, solid linebacker play has been a huge part of their defensive turnaround. Free agent middle linebacker Paul Posluszny (+12.7) is playing outstanding football and Daryl Smith (+18.1) continues to fly under the radar as one of the league’s best linebackers. Posluszny came to Jacksonville with a reputation as a strong run defender, but he has excelled in coverage as well. He plays in every nickel and dime package and has missed only two snaps all season. Both Posluszny and Smith need to keep an eye on center Jeff Saturday as does a great job of getting to the second level in the running game. Look for the Colts to try and protect quarterback Curtis Painter by getting Brown and Carter involved in the game early.
Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Colts Linebackers
The Jaguars offense always starts with running back Maurice Jones-Drew (+4.7 Rush) and this has been a historically good matchup for him. The Colts’ undersized defensive tackles are usually no match for the Jaguars’ power running game so the linebackers will play a huge role. Middle linebacker Pat Angerer is gaining a reputation as a tackling machine due to his inflated tackle stats from the NFL, but it’s his league leading 12 missed tackles that have us most concerned. He has been the Colts’ worst run stopping linebacker at -5.9. The lone bright spot has been Linebacker Phillip Wheeler who is rated at +6.3 in his run defense and he’s picked up six stops on his eight tackles last week. In past years, the Colts’ chance at success on defense against the Jaguars has depended on their ability to slow down Jones-Drew, and this week will be no different.
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