The Dallas Cowboys are returning from a bye week that probably alleviated some of the mental and physical pain Tony Romo felt after their collapse against Detroit. The road doesn’t get much easier, as the Cowboys find themselves traveling to the 4-1 New England Patriots after one of their better defensive performances.
However that defensive performance did come at the hands of the New York Jets, whose offense is about as dangerous as a new born kitten at the moment. After allowing opposing offenses to throw at will, the Patriots held the Jets 255 total offensive yards – a figure that was 200 yards better than their season average. The Patriots will be out to prove that last week’s defensive performance wasn’t an aberration…but then again, even if it was, the defense can at least rely on Tom Brady and company to put 30 points as they have for 13-consecutive games.
Here are three things to keep your eye on in this game
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1) Tom Brady and Company vs. Dallas Secondary
Though Darrelle Revis of the Jets may have only allowed one reception for four yards, that didn’t prevent Brady from using his plethora of weapons to find numerous holes on other matchups. As a matter of fact, had it not been for a dropped touchdown pass from Aaron Hernandez that resulted in an interception, the score wouldn’t likely have been as close as it was. Despite the critical drop last week, the return of Hernandez does represent a unique offensive threat back in the Patriots arsenal. Hernandez is third among all NFL tight ends in percentage of his targets that are beyond 20 yards down the field. That said, the story of the Patriots’ offense – yawn – has to go back to Wes Welker (+13.6). Not only does he lead all receivers in PFF grade, targets, receptions, and yards, Welker is also leading in the PFF signature stat yards per rout run at 3.94 yards. Given the challenge at hand, it is a welcome week for the return of Orlando Scandrick. With Mike Jenkins (+2.0) and Terence Newman (+0.0) likely covering the outside receivers, Scandrick will spend most of his time lined up against the receiver who has given defenses headaches all season. In any case, Abram Elam (+0.3) and Gerald Sensabaugh (-1.6) should be on their toes because, as the Jets Eric Smith can attest, Welker’s not afraid to go deep.
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2) Dallas’ Defensive Font Seven vs. Patriots’ O-Line
If Dallas’ secondary wants to build in some insurance against being burned by the passing game, they may want to consider slipping some cash incentives to the guys getting after Brady. Though Brady (+40.3) may lead all quarterbacks in PFF grade by a comfortable margin, his passing under pressure is middle of the pack at 59.6%. This percentage is the 15th ranked mark in the NFL, and an almost 10% difference from his season average of 67.9%. One of the reasons for his success despite this average mark under pressure is that the Patriots’ offensive line has been incredibly effective at keeping Brady pressure-free. The offensive line is ranked third in pass blocking efficiency after only allowing 36 total pressures in 343 total plays. Given that DeMarcus Ware (+11.7) has generated 25 total QB disruptions on his own (five sacks, three hits, and 17 pressures) in only 138 pass-rushing plays, it will be interesting to watch if Ware can get pressure against a line that has been stingy all season. Another player who will be hoping to help slow the Patriots QB down will be Anthony Spencer (+2.9), who has 13 disruptions (three sacks, three hits, and seven pressures) in 105 pass rushes. Though Spencer hasn’t been quite as effective as Ware, look for him to try and take advantage of any blocking schemes that may pay too much attention Ware.
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3) Tony Romo with something to prove?
Though Dallas’ last collapse may not lie completely at the feet of Romo, given that it was his second in four weeks, it shouldn’t be surprising if Romo comes out Sunday in Foxboro with something to prove. Helping him in that cause will be Dez Bryant (+2.8) who has yet to drop a ball on 10 “catchable” passes. Another key return for Romo will be Miles Austin, who managed four touchdowns in the first two weeks of the season before being limited by a hamstring injury. The most fortunate fact for Romo, however, may be the defense he is facing. Though they may have looked formidable last week, much of that could be a credit to the elementary Jets’ offense that at one point last week ran a passing play with one receiving option. Strangely enough, Romo’s biggest target might be former PFF ROTY, Devin McCourty. McCourty has been targeted 45 times and allowed 30 receptions, both of which are league highs. Even more in Romo’s favor, is that the majority of those targets and receptions came against larger receivers – a bill Bryant and Austin each fill.
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