It was just a little more than a year ago that the Jaguars went into Indianapolis with a chance to clinch the division. A loss by Jacksonville put both teams at 8-6–two more wins gave the Colts yet another division title while two more losses by the Jaguars ended their season.
This just shows how much can go wrong in a year without your starting quarterbacks. This is one of the few games without any playoff implications, and is the only Week 17 game that we knew had none weeks ago. If the Colts lose this game, they clinch the first overall pick in the draft … so at least we have that.
Even though other games will be viewed by more, the few of you watching this game still deserve to know what you can keep an eye on to keep it interesting. Here are three matchups to help decide who can enter the 2012 season already on a winning streak.
Jaguars Pass Offense vs. Colts Pass Defense
The Jaguars pass offense has been less than ideal this year. Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert (-46.5) will have the lowest rating for a season we have seen out of a quarterback, and has yet to have a game with an overall positive rating. He has also been the least accurate quarterback, with an Accuracy Percentage of 59.6%, and has averaged just 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Starting wide receiver Mike Thomas (-3.9) and Jarett Dillard (-6.4) are in the bottom 10 in terms of Yards Per Pass Route Run at 1.06 and 0.96 respectively.
Luckily for the Jaguars, they are going up against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Colts have had 11 players play a down at defensive back for them this year, and all 11 have negative coverage ratings. Their starting outside linebackers in this game will be Kavell Conner (-17.1 coverage) and Ernie Sims (-10.0 coverage) who have allowed the fifth and third most yards in coverage by a 4-3 outside linebacker respectively. One of these two units who have had rough seasons at best has to outplay the other in this game to leave fans with a high note going into the offseason.
Colts Run Blockers vs. Jaguars Run Defense
The Colts have been giving Joseph Addai and Donald Brown the carries recently, but I’m not sure if it will matter who is carrying the ball in this one with who the Colts have blocking for them. They have just three players with positive run block ratings. One is center Jeff Saturday (+4.3 run block), although over the last five games he has a -0.7 rating. The other two are quarterback Dan Orlovsky thanks to one play, and rarely used fullback Ryan Mahaffey. As a team, their -75.3 run block rating is the fourth-worst in the league.
The Jaguars on the other hand have one of the best run D's in the league. Basically everyone in the front seven is above average or better in run defense other than Tyson Alualu who has been dealing with a persistent knee problem. Leger Douzable (+8.9) spent most of the season as a backup defensive tackle, but recently has been the starter at defensive end, and has shown he deserves to maintain the job at least in the base defense. Over the last four games, he has accumulated a +9.4 run defense rating with 10 stops. The linebackers are led by Daryl Smith (+23.1) who has 58 stops which is tied with Atlanta's Sean Weatherspoon for the lead for all outside linebackers, and is fourth amongst all linebackers. The Jaguars should be able to stop the run early, and force the Colts offense to be one dimensional. In the last matchup, the Colts averaged just 2.9 yards per run, so I would expect a very similar performance here.
Colts Receivers Last Stand?
If last week was Reggie Wayne’s (+7.7 receiving) last home game, it ended well. This week he has an opportunity to have an even greater last game as an Indianapolis Colt if he leaves to another team in free agency. He needs 113 yards for an eighth straight 1000-yard season. The Jaguars have lost Rashean Mathis, Derek Cox, William Middleton and Ashton Youboty to injury this season. This leaves undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland (-3.6) and recent free agent addition Morgan Trent (-1.5) who spent a few days as a Colt just weeks ago as the starting two cornerbacks. Reggie Wayne should be able to get the best of whichever cornerback covers him, and have a big game. If the Colts win this game, a big game by Wayne could be a big reason why.
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