- Christian McCaffrey will look to rebound from an injury-shortened 2024 season: There’s real risk with McCaffrey as he enters 2025 after a significant injury, but the upside remains elite if he returns to full health.
- Derrick Henry delivered a career year in 2024: Henry’s first year in Baltimore was a resounding success, and he’ll aim to build on that momentum in 2025.
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This fantasy football article series breaks down the toughest draft-day decisions facing fantasy managers, using Underdog’s average draft position (ADP) as a guide. Each installment compares similarly ranked players at the same position, using key stats from previous seasons and contextual factors — including team situation — to identify the better pick.
Today’s fantasy football spotlight pits two of the most productive running backs of the past decade against each other: Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry. With both players likely to come off the board near the Round 1/2 turn in 2025 drafts, we’re diving into their roles, workloads and outlooks to help determine who should anchor your fantasy backfield this season.
Christian McCaffrey (RB5) vs. Derrick Henry (RB6)
After two consecutive top-two fantasy finishes, Christian McCaffrey had largely quieted the injury concerns that once surrounded him. But those concerns resurfaced in 2024, as he was limited to just four games and struggled to recapture his 2023 form. Encouragingly, offseason reports have been positive regarding his recovery, and his current top-five ADP at the position reflects renewed optimism for a healthy bounceback.
Derrick Henry, on the other hand, continued to push back against the typical aging curve at running back. In his debut season with the Ravens, he posted career highs in PFF rushing grade (93.1), yards per carry (5.9), and breakaway run rate (41.8%). That efficiency helped fuel a PPR RB4 finish — his third straight top-12 fantasy season. Even with his 31st birthday approaching, Henry remains firmly in the RB1 conversation heading into 2025.
UTILIZATION IN THE RUNNING GAME
In 2023, Christian McCaffrey commanded one of the best workloads in fantasy football, but a truncated, injury-riddled 2024 made that level of usage a distant memory. As he returns from injury, it’s reasonable to expect the 49ers to manage his touches early on, and there’s no guarantee he’ll return to the 20-plus-touch workload that made him such a fantasy asset. Still, if he does regain that volume, his current ADP could prove to be a bargain.
Derrick Henry, meanwhile, wasted no time asserting himself as the focal point of the Ravens’ ground game. He finished second in the NFL with 325 rushing attempts and remained the team's go-to ball carrier in all situations, even with Lamar Jackson under center. Unlike Saquon Barkley in Philadelphia, who had to share short-yardage and goal-line duties with Jalen Hurts, Henry retained those high-value touches, reinforcing his top-tier fantasy value.
UTILIZATION IN THE PASSING GAME
Even in a shortened season, McCaffrey reminded us why his passing-game involvement remains a key differentiator. He’s topped 100 targets in four of his eight NFL seasons and has averaged an impressive 77.8 targets per year despite multiple injury-shortened campaigns. When healthy, McCaffrey isn’t just San Francisco’s primary ball carrier; he’s a dual-threat weapon whose receiving upside keeps him firmly in the elite fantasy tier.
Derrick Henry, on the other hand, continued to cede most passing-down work to Justice Hill in 2024, a familiar dynamic, as Henry has never surpassed 40 targets in a season. That trend is unlikely to change in 2025. While Henry is more than capable as a pass catcher, the Ravens wisely preserve his workload in that area to maintain his dominance as a runner, especially as he enters his age-31 season.
UTILIZATION IN SCORING RANGE
Due to injury, McCaffrey had limited opportunities to showcase his red-zone usage in 2024. However, in 2023, he handled 27 goal-line carries, tied for the second-most in the NFL. Even with their offensive struggles last year, San Francisco still ranked sixth in goal-to-go plays, reinforcing McCaffrey’s elite scoring upside when healthy and back as the primary option near the goal line.
Henry dominated Baltimore’s goal-line work in 2024, handling 23 goal-line carries and converting nine into touchdowns. Crucially, Lamar Jackson’s seven such carries didn’t significantly cut into that role. With Henry firmly entrenched as the Ravens’ preferred finisher in scoring situations, his touchdown potential remains among the best in the league.
TEAM-LEVEL SITUATION
The 49ers dropped to below average in run rate in 2024, largely due to McCaffrey’s absence. In 2023, with McCaffrey healthy, they led the league in run rate, a clear indication of the offense’s identity when at full strength. With one of the NFL’s top run-blocking units still intact, San Francisco is built to dominate on the ground again in 2025 if McCaffrey returns to form.
Baltimore, meanwhile, maintained its commitment to the run, finishing third in run rate last season and remaining in the top five for a second straight year. The presence of Lamar Jackson continues to give the Ravens a unique edge — since 2019, Baltimore’s backs have averaged a league-best 5.0 yards per carry. That efficiency boost helped Henry post a career-high yards per carry in 2024 and should remain a major advantage moving forward.
POTENTIAL 2025 BACKFIELD COMPETITION
If and when McCaffrey is fully healthy, there's little question he’ll resume his role as the 49ers’ featured back — past usage makes that clear. Still, coming off a significant injury and entering the later stages of his career, San Francisco could manage his workload more carefully in 2025, especially early in the season. That might mean fewer than 20 touches per game and a more meaningful role for a complementary back like Isaac Guerendo or another member of the backfield.
For Henry, as noted earlier, the only real competition comes on passing downs, where Justice Hill has carved out a niche role. Hill isn’t expected to eat into Henry’s early-down or goal-line touches, but his presence does allow the Ravens to give Henry some breathers — something that helps keep the 31-year-old fresh for the heavy workload he continues to carry on the ground.
While the final decision is yours, don’t go into your draft blind. Check out PFF’s latest fantasy football rankings to see exactly where Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and the rest of your targets stack up heading into 2025.
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