Three to Focus on: Chiefs @ Jets, Week 14

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Both the Jets and Chiefs were playoff teams last year and now are on the outside looking in with just four weeks to go. The Chiefs have suffered a number of injuries as well while facing a more difficult schedule to get them to their 5-7 mark, but the Jets are simply suffering from poor play on offense.

Now the only two teams that won a Super Bowl while in the AFL square-off with the winner clinging on to their dim playoff hopes. The Jets could be eliminated from the division this week, and are currently sitting at a four way tie for the sixth seed. The Chiefs will likely only get in with a division victory, but they only have a chance if they win out, and they only have teams with winning records on the schedule. Here are the matchups to watch between two desperate teams.

Kansas City’s Tamba Hali vs. New York’s Offensive Tackles

If you were a reader of Pro Football Focus last year, you heard all about how elite of a pass rusher Tamba Hali (+20.9) was. He was getting pressure on 17.7% of his pass rushes, which is absurdly high considering how often he rushed the passer. This year he is down to 12.8%, which is still very good.

On just under 70% of his snaps, Hali lines up on the right side of the field. This would put him up against D’Brickashaw Ferguson (+4.4 pass block) who, like Hali, is not playing at the elite level he was last year, but is still playing quite well. He has only allowed pressure on 6.0% of pass plays; a worthy opponent. However, there is a chance the Chiefs might put Hali on the defense’s left side more often than his usual 30% to put him across from Wayne Hunter (-11.1 pass block) who has looked a bit worse in pass protection. Pressure is key to stopping Mark Sanchez (-13.7) who has just 3.6 yards per attempt when throwing the ball under pressure and there have been plenty of times where he didn’t even get the chance to make a throw as he’s been sacked 25 times. If Hali can have a big game, it will go a long ways in helping the Chiefs' cause.

Revis Island Welcomes Dwayne Bowe

It was very surprising when Darrelle Revis (+14.5) allowed nine catches and a touchdown against the Bills. He had not allowed that many catches in any other game in our four years of grading him and hadn’t given up a touchdown since Week 6 of the 2010 season. However, he responded well last week with just one catch for 14 yards permitted against the Redskins.

This week he will likely be paired up with receiver Dwayne Bowe (+4.0) of Kansas City. He has been very unpredictable this season, with three 100-yard games, two 17-yard games, and seven games that have varying yard totals in between. Bowe hasn’t faced the Jets since 2008 when he had six catches for 102 yards, but Revis wasn’t consistently paired up with him in that game. Now that Revis is elite and in most games facing one man, I expect these two to be lined up across from each other often.

Chiefs Run Game vs. Jets Run Defense

The Chiefs have been a mess at quarterback since Matt Cassel went down, so running the ball more has been a clear objective of the offense. However, in the last two weeks, their trio of running backs has run the ball 67 times for 197 yards – just under 3 yards per carry. This was against the Bears and Steelers who are known for having top-notch run defenses, but neither of them have the run D to match New York's.

Entering the season, both Sione Pouha (+20.0 run defense) and Mike DeVito (+11.8 run defense) were already considered top run-stoppers, and now they've been joined by Muhammad Wilkerson (+5.8 run defense), who is starting to live up to expectations. They are joined by linebackers Bart Scott (+10.6 run defense), and Calvin Pace (+6.9 run defense) who has been a pleasant surprise. DeVito may not play here due to a left knee injury but, as you can see, they have capable depth here. Over the last four games, running backs have run 95 times for 254 yards and a touchdown, so just 2.7 yards per carry. If the Chiefs are going to win this game, they will need to throw the ball, which is a scary thought for Kansas City’s chances.

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