In 2010 the Colts and the Chiefs were both divisional winners, in no small part because of the key playmakers on their respective offenses – Peyton Manning (PFF’s No. 2 Quarterback from 2010) and Jamaal Charles (No. 1-ranked running back). This weekend, neither will suit up, and two teams with a combined 1-7 record from the first four weeks will fight it out with the winner falling a step further from the top pick in the 2012 draft.
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The Colts stand at 0-4, and here’s an interesting fact: the last time they started 0-5 they ended the 1997 season with just three wins, claiming the first overall pick of the 1998 draft. Who did they pick that day? You guessed it, Peyton Manning.
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Here are three things to look for in this pivotal game:
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1) Pass Rush Battle No. 1: Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis vs. Branden Albert and Barry Richardson
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While things look pretty grim for the Colts' offense (a cumulative -48.9 grade places them dead last so far), one thing is pretty clear – they have the best defensive end pairing in the league. Robert Mathis currently ranks sixth in overall 4-3 defensive end grading with +9.3, and Dwight Freeney seventh at +9.2. Of course, the production from these guys comes from pass rush, in which Mathis and Freeney are knotted in the third spot with a pair of +9.9 ratings.
Freeney in particular has produced one of the more memorable moments from a DE so far this season: against Pittsburgh in Week 3. Late in the second quarter, he launched himself at Steelers left tackle Jonathan Scott and made sacking Ben Roethlisberger look as easy as walking through a turnstile. It’s exactly this kind of ability that will have Branden Albert working extra hard in training this week. Albert has started the season in solid fashion, amassing a +2.0 pass protection grade (ninth among all left tackles).
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On the other side of the line, Mathis should have a slightly easier time as he matches up against Barry Richardson. The Chiefs' right tackle has struggled so far in 2011, with a -3.9 pass protection grade (ranked 18th of all RT’s who have played at least 50% of all snaps).
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2) Pass Rush Battle No. 2: Tamba Hali vs. Colts offensive tackles
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The Colts aren’t the only team with elite pass rush ability up their sleeves. Tamba Hali amassed an incredible +53.2 pass rushing grade in 2010 – which, not surprisingly, ranked him well above his competition. He's off to a strong start again and currently stands fourth among all 3-4 outside linebackers with a +9.1 pass rushing grade. When we break down Hali’s positional pass rushing tendencies, we see he spends most of his time attacking the offense's left. So far this season, of the 264 snaps he has played – 122 have seen him rush the QB. Of the 122, 77 have come from a right-sided position and just 42 from the left (the remaining came from a central position). With this in mind, it's likely Hali will see more of the Colts' left tackle.
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First round pick Anthony Castonzo, who had played every snap at the LT position before suffering a knee injury in the Week 4 game against Tampa Bay, will miss the game. This coupled with the subsequent season-ending injury to his backup and fellow rookie Ben Ijalana, means the Colts are likely to shift personnel around. This could result in Jeff Linkenbach being restored as a left tackle and could be disastrous for the Colts, as Linkenbach lies 62nd among all tackles with a -7.5 pass protection grade so far. Hali will be looking forward to this one.
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3) Establishing a run game
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Given that both quarterbacks could be in for a tough time, it could be the case that whichever team enjoys the more productive ground game will prevail. Sadly, run blocking hasn’t been a strong point for either so far – the Colts rank 30th with a cumulative run block grade of -25.0, while the Chiefs lie only two places higher in 28th with a -21.5. Dexter McCluster‘s emergence could be crucial for Kansas City, especially when you compare his performances to Thomas Jones‘ so far. McCluster has a +4.2 rush grade (compared to Jones’ -2.1), and is averaging 5.9 yards per carry (compared to Jones’ 2.8). It’s interesting to note, however, that although McCluster has been in for 120 snaps, he has only carried the ball 28 times.
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The Colts will look to rely on Joseph Addai, who has so far taken 74% of Colts running back snaps. Part of theirs problem when running the ball comes from their inability to produce big plays from the running game – only 6.5% of Addai’s total yardage has come from runs of over 15 yards, ranking him 30th among all running backs who have played at least 50% of their team's offensive snaps.
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