The Bears and Buccaneers have been two of the many confusing teams in the NFC. The Bears three losses have come against arguably the three best teams in the NFC, and have won three road battles against equal or lesser teams. However their PFF ratings make them look like one of the worst teams both offensively and defensively. The Buccaneers on the other hand are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the 49ers followed by a victory over division rivals New Orleans.
Whichever team ends up getting a win will help the team stay in control of their playoff destiny, as both teams look to be in contention the rest of the season but might end up on the outside looking in.
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1) Stoppable Force vs. Movable Object
The Bears pass game has been less than impressive this year, with Devin Hester (-8.7) getting by far the most offensive snaps so far with 307. He has caught just 51.5% of passes thrown his way as well as a drop in each of the past two games. On the offensive line, Chris Williams (+0.6 pass blocking) is the only player with a positive pass block grade, which has led to Jay Cutler (+9.2) being pressured on 37.2% of pass plays.
However this week could be the Bears offense chance to shine, as the Buccaneers secondary hasn’t looked great. Former great CB Ronde Barber (-5.9) has not looked great this year, allowing 22 catches on the season for 309 yards and three touchdowns. His eight missed tackles on the year doesn’t help his grade either. The secondary as a total have a combined -13.8 rating, as most players are between a coverage rating of -1.0 to -3.0.
While both teams have a weakness in this area, they both have a reason to be optimistic this week. For the Bears, Earl Bennett could be returning after barely playing this year. He had a +6.3 rating last year which was by far the best for the team. For Tampa Bay, safety Tanard Jackson (+1.8) will be in his second game after a yearlong suspension, and his first game back was impressive.
2) Matt Forte vs. Everyone
Like last year, the majority of the positives in the Chicago offense has come from Matt Forte (+13.5). Over the past three weeks he has run the ball 64 times for 408 yards, which is an average of 6.4 yards per run. He’s also had 14 players miss tackles on him over that period of time. He’s also been an asset in the passing game, where he leads the league, among RBs, in receiving yards with 381. If the Bears win, it will definitely be because Forte has a big game.
The question then becomes if the Buccaneers have enough on defense to stop Forte. On the defensive line, Tampa Bay will hopefully have Gerald McCoy (+6.2 run defense) return, while they have seen defensive end Michael Bennett (+11.7 run defense) flourish in his third year. It will be those two that have the best chance at stopping him in the run game, which will leave the linebackers responsible for covering him on pass plays. Rookie Mason Foster (+2.2 coverage) has done well so far, only allowing 7.4 yards per catch and has yet to allow a big play. The defense has a shot to stop Forte, and if they can it will keep the Chicago’s offense off the field and off the scoreboard.
3) Giving Freeman Time
One of the problems the Buccaneers offense has had is keeping Freeman on his feet, as he has been under pressure on 33% of his drop backs. He has averaged 7.4 yards per attempt when he’s not pressured compared to just 4.9 when he is. Part of that falls on the offensive line, where Jeremy Trueblood (-14.5) has already allowed 26 combined pressures.
The Buccaneers might get off easy this week, as the Bears pass rush isn’t as good as last year. DE Julius Peppers (+1.7 pass rush) hasn’t been as good, with a pressure on every 11.3 plays this year compared to a pressure on every 9.3 plays last year. Their other DE Israel Idonije (-5.8 pass rush) has regressed even more, with a pressure on one in every 17.5 plays this year.
If the Buccaneers can keep the pressure off of Freeman, he should be able to get the best of the Bears secondary who outside of Charles Tillman (+3.7 coverage) haven’t looked good.
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