Sometimes you can learn more from a defeat than a victory.
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So beating a Tarvaris Jackson-led Seattle Seahawks probably wasn’t the best indicator that the 49ers were heading in the right direction. Almost beating a very talented Cowboys outfit was.
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Sure, when it came down to it, the Niners couldn’t close the game out (with some extremely conservative coaching not helping), but the defense that we worried about after losing Aubrayo Franklin, Takeo Spikes and Nate Clements can still get the job done, and the offense did have moments.
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Now, to the naked eye, they get an easier test. A Cincinnati team led by a rookie quarterback and coming off a defeat in Mile High. These Bengals, however, were more impressive than you’d think in that loss and are getting a number of strong performances from unheralded players.
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Could they lead them to victory? Or will the experience of the 49ers see them through? Let’s find out where this battle could be won.
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1. How do you solve a problem like Justin Smith?
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Doug Free was one of the better left tackles in the league last year … Doug Free gave up five pressures to Justin Smith. There are worse guards than Derrick Dockery in the league … Derrick Dockery lost battles to Justin Smith in the running game, and had the ‘false start fear’ put into him for a pair of penalties. Essentially, a decent left side of the Cowboys’ line got decimated by the one-man-wrecking-crew that is Smith – and they weren’t the first. Smith, who leads 3-4 ends with a +12.8 rating (next best being +6.3), did the same thing to Seattle. Cincinnati needs to find a way to keep him from adding them to his list.
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How do they hope to do it? Well, they need Andrew Whitworth to bring his “A” game. The franchise left tackle was our top-ranked player at the spot last year, and has gotten off to a solid, if not spectacular start. Unfortunately, Smith won’t just be going up against him, but lines up against the left guard just as much. And that left guard just happens to be Nate Livings. Oh dear. Livings was our 54th-ranked guard last year and, after two games in 2011, finds himself in the same spot. The prospect of Livings going up against Smith should set some alarm bells ringing in the head of Andy Dalton, who has a -2.5 grade when pressured.
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2. Carlos Rogers versus A.J. Green
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Okay, so it’s not going to be an explicit one-on-one matchup. Carlos Rogers mans the LCB spot, before moving into the slot in the 49ers’ nickel package. A.J. Green has spent 49.6% of his time as the RWR, the highest percentage of his snaps at any position. It means we should get a pretty good contest between the impressive rookie, and the underrated Rogers.
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Green had a tricky NFL debut against Joe Haden (even after that touchdown), but bounced back to show his dominance against an overmatched Broncos secondary. He’s already picked up three catches (on six targets) on balls thrown over 20 yards, and can challenge you all over the field. Rogers had his “Classic Carlos” moment against the Cowboys when a ball smacked him in the face, but he also broke up three passes – one of which ended up being intercepted. He’ll never be a beloved cornerback because he may have the worst hands of any player in the league, so will never put up the interception stats. But in coverage, Rogers can make life very tough for a receiver.
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3. Battles of the 2nd Years
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When you take a risk on guys that fall in the draft, sometimes it pays off, and sometimes it doesn’t. It’s fair to say that, as of right now, Carlos Dunlap has paid off for the Bengals. The DLE is currently ranked third in our defensive end rankings after two weeks with a +6.6 grade, after picking up three quarterback hits, and a further four pressures. Numbers that won’t jump off the page at you, but are extremely impressive when you consider he has only rushed the passer 35 times.
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He’ll present a tough test for sophomore tackle, Anthony Davis. The 49ers’ right tackle (-3.6) hasn’t had the best start to 2011 (following up a rough rookie year), and could be there for the taking. If there’s a consolation for the 49ers, it’s just how good Alex Smith has been under pressure. Completing a healthy 53.8% of passes with pass rushers nearing, Smith is averaging more yards per attempt (7.7) when pressured then when he is not. He also has a better rating (+4.0) when pressured. So Davis may get beat, but perhaps it won’t matter all that much if Smith can cope with it the way he has through the opening two games of the season.
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