When assigning player grades on a play-by-play basis, trends become apparent over time. In fact, that was part of the motivation for the Pro Football Focus initiative to begin with — to show, when all was considered, a richer, deeper and more contextualized performance log for all players. Now, with our fifth full season of such detail being captured, looking back to see where trends took turns is particularly interesting and even more so when those shifts are found as they are happening.
With a number of last season's Scramble contributors moving on to other duties within PFF or, *gasp*, to real-life responsibilities, Gordon McGuinness returns as the lone holdover. He'll be joined this season by three of our more experienced player participation analysts as they tackle in tandem a different topic for each article. This week's assignment: sift out a handful of players who are showing signs of shifts in their play.
What our Scramblers have returned with is a short list of players whose performances so far are hinting at 2012 turnarounds. Small sample to be sure, with only two games in the books, but for this moment in time at least, these four players can be counted among the group who are emerging from the cloud of disappointing play and heading toward (or back toward) a positive record.
Marshall Newhouse
Offensive Tackle, Green Bay Packers
By Bryan Hall
There's no point in sugarcoating it, Marshall Newhouse was one of the league's worst pass blockers in 2011. In his first season of NFL action, he gave up a whopping 54 total pressures (including eight sacks), struggled mightily against premier pass rushers, and earned a -15.3 PFF pass protection grade that had him ranked 74th out of 76 offensive tackles. About the only thing he seemed to excel at was pulling his MVP quarterback back up to his feet and helping to pick the turf out of his helmet.
The Packers organization stuck by Newhouse in the offseason and he was the unquestioned starter from the first day of camp. That faith would be tested immediately in Week 1, with no tougher an assignment than 18 pass sets versus the 49ers’ Aldon Smith and 32 (11 with help) against his teammate Justin Smith. Follow that up with 23 opposite Chicago’s Julius Peppers and you’d be right to wonder if Aaron Rodgers would still be standing by Week 3.
Instead, much to our surprise, Newhouse seems to be turning things around. He has allowed only three total pressures on the season (two sacks, one hurry), and his +3.2 pass blocking grade is good for ninth among tackles.
He’s also played a big role in making that trio of pass-rushing superstars look rather ordinary. Our Pass Rushing Productivity (PRP) rating provides the perfect illustration. Last year, Aldon Smith’s 15.4 PRP led all 3-4 OLBs, Justin Smith led all 3-4 DE's (9.1), and Peppers was Top 10 among 4-3 DEs (10.3). In games against the Packers this year, those ratings were slashed to 5.8, 4.5, and 6.3, respectively. For Justin Smith and Peppers, the majority of their pass rushing snaps came against Newhouse.
What has changed in Newhouse's game? Go back to last year’s Week 16 matchup against the Bears and you’ll see a different player (-2.2 pass blocking grade and four hurries yielded). In 15 pass sets against Peppers, he was continually beaten outside by speed rushes — which, in turn, set him up for a sweet inside move from Peppers later in the game. So far this year, Newhouse appears a half-step quicker laterally, able to keep defenders from gaining the edge, and for the most part, forcing them to face him head-on with power instead of speed.
Two games don’t make a trend, and Newhouse still flounders trying to stick to anyone while run blocking (-1.4), but the Packers, and Rodgers in particular, have to be thrilled with what they’ve seen so far.
Josh Freeman
Quarterback, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
By Gordon McGuinness
After the way he ended the 2010 season — throwing nine touchdowns and no interceptions in the final four weeks — it wouldn't have been odd to expect Josh Freeman (+8.7) to step up in 2011 and prove himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the league. That simply didn’t happen. Throwing just 16 touchdowns to 22 interceptions, Freeman regressed to the point that it was tough to believe he was the same quarterback that had played so well at the end of 2010.
Thankfully, the regime change for the Buccaneers seems to have done him a world of good as he’s started this season looking like the player that impressed us so much back then. Through the first two weeks of the season he ranks as our fourth-highest graded quarterback after impressive performances against the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants.
Grading positively on over 19% of his plays so far this season (Eli Manning, for comparison, is at 23%), Freeman's positive play pace is ahead of last season (16%). And, noting from the far corner of his stat sheet, a small-sample glimpse shows that he’s found a bit of success on deep passes down the left, with both of his completions from his four attempts there going for touchdowns. One of those came on Sunday as he dropped the ball in perfectly for Vincent Jackson, leading him into the end zone despite having a face full of pressure.
Both of his interceptions have come when he’s been under pressure, though, and that is reminiscent of his struggles from last season. Under pressure his completion percentage in 2012 drops to just 40% — definitely an area for work and evidence that this hint at a turnaround is, at this point, just that.
With his poor season last year it’s easy to forget that Freeman's — and his fourth-quarter heroics — played a major role in 2010 when Tampa Bay just missed out on the playoffs. They’re a young team with a coach stepping up from the college ranks, but they have plenty of talent on the roster and, if Freeman can continue his resurgent play, there’s no reason to think that they can’t make another postseason push.
J.D Walton
Center, Denver Broncos
By Trey Cunningham
Center J.D Walton was a third round pick for the Denver Broncos in 2010, but his performance in his first two years didn’t match his somewhat high price tag. After a rough rookie outing, he was our worst overall graded center in 2011, despite his team leading the league in rushing yards.
Walton’s first game epitomized his whole rookie season — facing Jacksonville, he gave up two QB hits, two pressures, and lost the majority of his battles in the running game to the tune of a -2.6 grade in this area. A learning curve is to be expected, but, alarmingly, his sophomore campaign was worse. On the very first play in Oakland in Week 1 he allowed John Henderson to slip past for a 1-yard tackle on the running back. This would become a trend, giving up at least one tackle for a short gain or worse in all but two games (including playoffs) and grading in the red in half of them. His pass protection also regressed, giving up five fewer hurries in the regular season than the prior year (15), but surrendering more sacks (four) and QB hits (four).
Turn to 2012, though, and Walton is finally off to a successful start. At +3.9 overall, he hasn’t allowed Peyton Manning to be touched on his watch, allowing just a single hurry in two contests. In contrast, he started his first two games in prior years at -5.5 overall (including two QB hits and two hurries) and -7.9 (a hit and two hurries), respectively. Also in comparison, his first play of this season was much better than last year’s, this time making a positive impact with a solid block on Steeler linebacker Larry Foote. He did give up a tackle for short gain and get stood up by NTs Casey Hampton and Steve McLendon, but would ultimately got the better of them — especially Hampton who, at 13:46 in the fourth quarter, Walton puts to the ground, opening a huge hole for Willis McGahee. Walton performed even better in run blocking last week in Atlanta (+2.0).
Walton is showing the kind of power and anchor that we never really saw from him in those previous seasons, able to control people at the point of attack rather than being victimized. While it’s too early to jump to conclusions, the Broncos' staff have to be thrilled with his performance so far this year after so many early-career struggles.
Reshad Jones
Safety, Miami Dolphins
By John Breitenbach
Flashing potential in his rookie year, 2010 fifth-round pick Reshad Jones had a +3.1 grade in just 153 snaps (with one start) and made plays in both coverage and against the run. However, after taking over the full time job in 2011, it quickly became apparent that the Georgia product wasn’t ready.
His commendable job of coming quickly down against the run was muted by the fact that he often found himself out of control and, consequently, missed nine tackles on the way to a poor Tackling Efficiency rating of just 6.3 (65 safeties rated higher). Even then, Jones’ struggles in coverage were more concerning, where his -9.5 grade ranked him fourth-last of all safeties last year. With Miami in rebuild mode on offense as they endure Ryan Tannehill’s growing pains, the defense needs to step up and Jones in particular has done just that.
Through two weeks, Jones is our third-ranked safety overall and looks like he may be turning the corner. With three defensive stops logged and a pair of tackles for losses, he’s shown that aforementioned ability to come down against the run (despite just 25 snaps in the box) and has avoided missing tackles. He has also impressed in limited coverage opportunities where he’s allowed just one completion on four targets with an interception.
The story with Jones is still incomplete, as he was only targeted once by the Texans and took advantage of an out-of-sorts Carson Palmer, but the third season is where players are supposed to step up if they are ever going to and this Miami Dolphins safety has done everything asked of him so far.
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