In Week 3, the Falcons traveled to New Orleans and upset the Saints 27-24, putting the Falcons at the top of the division where they've stayed. QB Matt Ryan (+7.2) had one of the best games of his career, taking advantage of the Saints blitz averaging 13.6 yards per attempt when they blitzed along with a touchdown.
QB Drew Brees (+5.1) also had a strong game for the Saints completing all 16 of his passes in the middle of the field for 10 yards or less for 153 yards and two touchdowns. Despite good play by the Saints, the Falcons kept the ball for the last seven minutes of overtime pounding the ball until they kicked the last second field goal to win. You can read our recap of that game here.
The Falcons need to…
Take advantage of the Saints' weak pass rush
There is no one on the Saints defense that would scare you in terms of pass rush. DE Will Smith (+5.8) leads the team with an average of just over two combined pressures a game. This bodes well for the Falcons, as QB Matt Ryan (+54.6) is significantly better when there isn’t pressure compared to when there is. His rating is +40.5 when there is no pressure and +10.0 when there is some. If the Falcons offensive line gives Ryan plenty of time to throw the ball, he can pick apart the Saints secondary and continue making the amazing throws he’s been making all season.
The Saints need to…
Spread the ball around
The Falcons have two outstanding corners in Brent Grimes (+11.0) and Dunta Robinson (+8.9), but outside of them the secondary is so-so. The Saints have a number of wide receivers they like to use, as well as TEs Jeremy Shockey (+1.7 in pass) and Jimmy Graham (+3.0), and RB Pierre Thomas (+4.1). Look for the Saints to target their usual range of players to avoid those two corners and move the ball down the field.
Matchups
Falcons HB Michael Turner vs. the Saints' front seven
The first time the Falcons and Saints played, Turner ran a lot but wasn’t successful by our standards — in fact he had his lowest grade of the season. Odd, since the Saints' run defense isn’t too scary– they rank in our bottom 10. OLB Danny Clark is a run specialist, getting more than half his snaps vs. the run, but will be out and replaced by the underwhelming Jo-Lonn Dunbar. Fellow linebackers Jonathan Vilma and Scott Shanle have struggled vs. the run throughout their careers.
Saints LG Carl Nicks vs. Falcons DRT Corey Peters
While on the far left side of the line there is the matchup of Bushrod and Abraham which is in favor of the Falcons, just one spot closer will be our best-graded guard in Nicks (+23.8) against a struggling rookie Peters (-9.9). Expect the Saints to run in that direction, as Nicks is best when run blocking and run defense is where Peters has struggled the most.
Notes
One of the reasons for the Falcons' success is lack of penalties; they have only averaged around five a game. … All of the Saints' halfbacks (Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Julius Jones) have played between 149-186 snaps each this season. So, who leads the Saints in snaps played? Ladell Betts, who is on injured reserve and has probably already been forgotten by Saints fans.
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