Denver’s quarterback battle between Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow was one of the only things that got them national news attention. However, that national attention abruptly ended once the Broncos made it clear that Orton would be their starter.
While they may have finished at the bottom of the AFC West, the Denver Broncos are a team that has the ability to make big strides in 2011. I’m not sure that I’d say they can make the playoffs just yet, but a winning season is within reach.
Don’t believe me?
Here are some reasons to believe, as well as some reasons to expect the same mediocrity that we saw last season.
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Five Reasons to be Confident
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1) Improved Receiving Corps
What made the Broncos’ offense more enjoyable to watch in 2010 was the emergence of Brandon Lloyd. In addition to leading the NFL in receiving yards, Lloyd also finished at the top of the league in terms of yards per pass route run with 2.41. While you can find out more in-depth analysis about his breakout season here, the fact that the Broncos now have one of the league’s top receivers makes their offense that much more dangerous.
In addition to Lloyd, newcomers such as running back Willis McGahee and tight end Daniel Fells are both very competent receivers and will be asked to step up in key situations. While Jon Fox may elect to run the ball more consistently, their passing game looks better than it has in the past two years.
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2) Champ is still Champ
While he may no longer be considered as one of the NFL’s elite cornerbacks, Champ Bailey can still play the position at an extremely high level. Last season, Bailey had the highest overall coverage rating for cornerbacks. Sure his 57% catch rate and two interceptions aren't exactly eye-popping, but one thing to note is that he never gave up a big play. Ignoring one very bad game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Bailey allowed just 19 yards per game, with the longest pass he allowed all season being 32 yards (which was against the Chiefs). He may not be getting any younger, but Bailey certainly hasn’t shown any signs of his play deteriorating.
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3) Stronger Up Front
Back in the dark days of the lockout, we ran a “Help Wanted” series where we said that the Broncos’ biggest need was at defensive tackle. Naturally, the team’s front office took our criticism under consideration and added both Ty Warren and Brodrick Bunkley to their roster. Unfortunately for Denver, Warren suffered a tear in his right triceps and will miss significant time, but Bunkley should still provide them with an immediate upgrade.
In 2009, which was the last time that Bunkley was an NFL starter, he had a +11.9 run defense rating, which was better than any Broncos defensive linemen over the past three years. Combine that with the return of Elvis Dumervil and the drafting of Von Miller and you have three spots in the front seven that are instantly upgraded from what we saw in 2010.
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4) The Trials of Youth
There are few areas where you could argue that the Broncos have downgraded. The players who played the most snaps for Denver in 2010, were safety Renaldo Hill, tight end Daniel Graham and receiver Jabar Gaffney, none of whom will be wearing navy and orange next season. Although each of those players had 10 or more years of experience under their belts, only Hill had an overall positive rating in 2010. It’s hard to argue the Broncos’ decision to get younger at these positions, and it’s even harder to imagine the team being any worse than they were a year ago.
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5) In Orton we Trust
While people all over the world wanted to see more of what Tim Tebow had to offer, it is easy to forget that Kyle Orton really wasn’t that bad of a quarterback. Last season, Orton had a +31.5 pass grade over the first 11 games, and he finished 17th in our new quarterback ratings. While he may never be an elite QB, he is still better than nearly half of the league’s starters which fans can often forget.
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Five Reasons to be Concerned
1) Offensive Line Woes
Although Ryan Clady is still one of the league’s better left tackles, the other four offensive line spots are questionable at best. As a rookie, left guard Zane Beadles had negative ratings in both pass and run blocking, while fellow rookie Z.D. Walton had the fourth worst overall rating for centers.
On the right side of the ball, Chris Kuper and his -11.0 run block rating isn’t much better than his teammates to the left, and at right tackle we just don’t know how well second round pick Orlando Franklin will perform. The Broncos may want to be a run first team, but that won’t work if the line plays the same way that they did last season.
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2) Knowshon Moreno
One of the few rumored destinations for both DeAngelo Williams and Ahmad Bradshaw was Denver. The goal was to pair one of them up with Knowshon Moreno, but both players opted to remain with their former teams. While Moreno’s 4.3 yards per carry average is very solid, he hasn’t had many standout games in his short NFL career. Since being drafted two years ago, Moreno has only had two 100 yard games, and both of those came against the Kansas City Chiefs. If they want to build an offense around the running game, Moreno is not the ideal back to do it with.
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3) Quarterback Controversy
Like most quarterbacks do, it is likely that there will be a point in the season where Orton struggles to score points. The second that happens, talks of Tim Tebow replacing him will be unavoidable. Even if Broncos lose a few games despite the fact that Orton has played well, fans will still want to see Tebow take over under centre. Quarterback controversies like this are never good for the locker room, and until one of these players leaves the city, this controversy isn’t going away any time soon. Chances are that this will be a distraction at some point in the season; it’s just a matter of when it will happen.
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4) Learning Curve
The Broncos have once again changed head coaches, and with that change comes new philosophies on both sides of the football. The length of the NFL lockout makes it harder than ever for players to adjust to these new schemes, and after two years of playing a 3-4 defense, the Broncos are returning to a 4-3 front. Elvis Dumervil and D.J. Williams are the only front seven starters that were with the team back when they used to play a 4-3, so it will take some time for the rest of the Broncos to learn all of the necessary changes.
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5) Youth Movement
While the Broncos have a number of veterans on their roster, they also have seven players whom they drafted in the past three years that are expected to start. Three of those seven players are rookies, and rushing players into a starting role is rarely a good thing. Looking beyond the starters, there are only few names that an average NFL fan would recognize and an injury to a key player would easily end any momentum the Broncos may have built.
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When you have just had the second overall pick, not much is expected of you the following year and I can’t think of anyone who is expecting big things out of Denver. If the Broncos aren’t able to put together a solid season, at least they will still get some media attention from their quarterback situation.
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Follow Nathan on Twitter: @PFF_NateJahnke and check out our main Twitter feed too: @ProFootbalFocus
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