Betting News & Analysis

NFL Betting 2022: Sprinkle these Week 4 SGPs

· SGP build consisting of D.J. Moore 80+ receiving yards / anytime TD, Baker Mayfield 275+ pass yards (+1939)Moore is second in PFF’s Air Yards Buy Low Model; Arizona allowing explosive pass play on NFL-high 11% of attempts.

· SGP build with Jerry Jeudy and Russell Wilson leading Broncos charge in Vegas (+2863): Wilson second in NFL this season in EPA vs. man, and Jeudy leads NFL in separating vs. man since entering league.

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Estimated reading time: 2 mins


· While same game parlays (SGPs) are big money makers for the sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don't exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: they uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads, and totals; and (2) SGPs allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle, but will not be priced into the odds set by books.

· The goal in this space, then, will be to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only through SGPs.


Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Story: Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy tears up man coverage en route to Broncos Win

· The Raiders have played the fourth-most man coverage of any team in the NFL, increasing their man rate each week.

· As we’ve studied at PFF, man coverage enables talent to play through – great receiving will almost always defeat weak coverage. 

· Against man coverage since entering the NFL, Jeudy leads the league in PFF separation grade. 

· Jeudy should be running free against a Raiders defense ranked bottom 10 in allowing separation in man coverage and possibly missing two starting cornerbacks.

· So far in 2022, Russell Wilson is 2nd in the NFL in EPA against man coverage. 

FanDuel SGP build (+2863)

· Denver Broncos ML

· Jerry Jeudy 100+ Yards

· Russell Wilson 275+ Yards


Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Story: The Titans lean on their passing game against the Colts

· Indianapolis leads the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed per carry (2.6 ypc), and teams pass 3% more than expected against the Colts, setting up Tennessee to lean on its passing attack.

· Ryan Tannehill has excelled with the second-best EPA in the NFL when not under pressure. Meanwhile, the Colts have the fourth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, generating pressure on only 26% of pass-rush snaps.

· Robert Woods and Treylon Burks are 7th and 8th, respectively, this week in PFF’s Air Yards Buy Low Model. Look for the two of them to be the main beneficiaries of the Titans' likely increased passing in this matchup. 

FanDuel SGP Build (+2254)

· Ryan Tannehill 275+ Yards

· Derrick Henry Under 70

· Robert Woods 50+ Yards

· Treylon Burks 70+ Yards


Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Story: Panthers WR D.J. Moore catches long TD en route to big day vs Cardinals 

· Arizona has allowed an explosive pass on 11% of pass attempts against — second-worst in the NFL — and has allowed quarterbacks to average 282 passing yards so far this season. 

· Who might be the beneficiary of a defense that bleeds explosive plays? Fifth in the NFL in explosive catches since entering the league, Moore also ranks second in PFF’s Air Yards Buy Low Model. Now is the time to buy low on Moore. 

FanDuel SGP Build (+1939)

· Baker Mayfield 275+ Yards

· D.J. Moore 80+ Yards

· D.J. Moore TD Scorer

 

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