To win a DFS tournament, building a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game is essential. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking so that when these low-rostered plays hit, rosters soar past the competition and into first place.
Last week’s assessment of James Conner and Cooper Kupp was on the money, as both veteran studs featured in the winning DraftKings Millionaire Maker lineup at 10% and 18% rostership, respectively. Taysom Hill looked like he was on his way to making it a perfect three-for-three until he suffered a Lisfranc injury midway through the game. With that, let’s move onward to Super Wild Card Weekend.
Click here for more PFF tools:
This Cowboys-49ers game boasts real shootout potential and carries the highest total of the entire weekend at 50.5. Dak Prescott possesses the key matchup against a vulnerable San Francisco secondary — PFF’s 16th ranked coverage unit — compared to their stout run defense, which ranks sixth. Expect Prescott to throw the ball all over the field as the path of least resistance to victory.
Specifically, the 49ers secondary is extremely susceptible to slot receivers. We attacked this angle last week with Kupp, so let’s go right back to the well here with Wilson. The versatile Cowboys wide receiver stepped in for the injured Michael Gallup and destroyed the Eagles secondary to the tune of a 5-119-2 receiving line for 31.9 DraftKings points. He is severely underpriced at just $4,300 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel.
Wilson slid right into the slot last week where he lined up on 91% of his snaps. CeeDee Lamb replaced Gallup on the outside, where he lined up on 94% of his snaps. Expect the Cowboys to run back a similar three-wide-receiver set with Lamb and Amari Cooper on the outside, and Wilson in the slot.
Here is the production the 49ers allowed to slot receivers this season:
|112.5 passer rating||28th|
|8.3 yards per attempt||25th|
Wilson can be double stacked with Prescott and either Lamb, Cooper or even Dalton Schultz. Correlate it with any combination of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk or Elijah Mitchell to capture all the fantasy points in this potential high-scoring affair.
Harris is one of the most underrated players in the NFL, as his 87.5 PFF grade ranked first among all running backs this season. He gets a matchup against a middling Bills run defense that has been prone to complete meltdowns, including the last time these two teams met back in Week 13.
Fantasy managers are keenly aware of Bill Belichick’s unpredictable running back usage, which should keep Harris’ rostership in check. Brandon Bolden’s random two-touchdown performance last week is just the latest example of New England’s running back roulette wheel.
Harris will need multiple touchdowns to pay off his salary. He scored 15 rushing touchdowns this season — the second-most in the NFL. New England feeds him when they get close to the end zone, as Harris has racked up 30 carries from inside the 10-yard line — 19 more than anyone else on the Patriots and second-most in the league behind only Jonathan Taylor. That could pay off against a Bills defense that has given up 19 rushing touchdowns this season, which is the fifth-most in the league.
The emergence of Hunter Renfrow has clouded the fact that Jones is Derek Carr’s favorite target of late with at least eight targets in each of the last five games. Here are his receiving numbers over that same five-game stretch:
- 40 targets (first on Raiders)
- 30 catches (t-first)
- 289 yards (first)
- 0 touchdowns
The zero-touchdown stat sticks out like a sore thumb, but regression could be on the way, as he failed to haul in both of his end zone targets last week.
Additionally, Jones boasts a massive downfield role with a whopping 39% of the Raiders total air yards over the last four weeks — the fourth-most in NFL. Carr just missed Jones wide-open deep down the field last week on what should have been a 50-plus yard touchdown.
Cincinnati’s pass defense is burnable deep. Here is the receiving production they allowed on throws 20-plus yards downfield this season:
|100.1 passer rating||22nd|