A quick thank you firstly to Khaled for standing in yesterday while I was off doing my bit for NFLUK by joining Neil Reynolds on his weekly podcast at short notice. It wasn’t that Neil needed me of course, but it was nice of him to ask knowing I’m not the sort to turn down a free lunch. Talking of “free”, I see Khaled was trying to bribe my loyal readers with the offer of a free subscription in his Drop Rate competition. This awkwardness has been brewing since I asked to restructure his burgeoning contract, which leads me (incredibly crudely) on to my topic of the day — Is Jared Allen worth the $14m he refuses to take a pay cut from. Now, if only I could get Khaled down to that much!
Friday, May 24th
Jared Allen Won’t Budge on His Value
Based on Average Per Year (APY) Allen isn’t the highest paid defensive end in football (he’s actually fourth) but, unlike the players above him, 2013 is the last year of his contract and his cap hit this season (just over $17m) is the largest at his position. In terms of production that’s an incredibly difficult number for anyone to have to justify and my immediate reaction was “come on Jared – be realistic”, but when I examined his performance in more detail I felt perhaps he has a point.
Getting Your Money’s worth
There’s often a debate at PFF towers about the value of a defensive lineman staying on the field for a large percentage of plays but (perhaps as a result) being not quite as productive on a per play basis as someone who plays fewer snaps. Allen very much falls into the first category and in his primary role (that of a pass rusher) last year no one came close to rushing the quarterback as many times as he did.
Defenders Ranked by 2012 Regular Season Pass Rush Snaps
[table id=868 /]
In fact those 45 snaps that separate him from the man in the No. 2 position (Gerald McCoy) are a typical game's worth in today’s NFL.
Further, consider the players who have a higher APY than him all played significantly less snaps overall — if the average amount of snaps for a “full-time” DE is 60 snaps then Mario Williams (APY of $16m) played two full games less (121 less snaps), Charles Johnson (APY of $12.6m) played over 3.5 games less (216 snaps) and Julius Peppers (APY of $14m) more than a quarter of a season and nearly 4.5 games less (266 snaps). Whatever you wish to say about Allen, you cannot say he doesn’t give value in terms of playtime.
The Production Debate
Obviously, if you stay on the field for enough plays, even a blind squirrel will sometimes find a nut, so is Allen productive for the amount of snaps he plays?
Here are our Pass Rush Productivity (PRP) rankings for 4-3 ends in 2012, and given what we have already seen above, that Allen ranks 16th is a remarkably creditable performance.
4-3 ends Ranked by 2012 Regular Season Pass Rush Productivity
[table id=869 /]
Additionally, it should be mentioned that of those above him only Hardy, Parker and Peppers rushed from the right side over 80% of the time — Allen played every snap on the right.
Taking a Stand
On the surface, in terms of pure productivity, it’s quite difficult to argue that Jared Allen is currently a better player than, for example, either Cameron Wake or Jason Pierre-Paul — never mind defenders at other positions like J.J. Watt, Von Miller or Geno Atkins — but when you consider the whole picture it’s much easier to say he deserves that money. When you play over 25% more than an equally productive, better paid player who wasn’t injured, the context of the argument changes somewhat.
It’s doubtful he’ll ever get close to $12m a year again, particularly given the NFL’s current distrust of older players, but for now at least I think he deserves his compensation and is right to stand his ground.
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