Much has been said about the Bears hiring of Mike Martz as their new Offensive Coordinator. Regardless of whether or not you feel the hiring will translate into wins for the franchise, one thing is for sure: the Bears will throw the football…a lot.
Now that might not seem like much of a change if you watched this squad in 2009. The Cutler-led Bears threw the ball on 58% of their offensive snaps (4% were sacks, 38% runs), which was good enough to place them as the 4th pass-heaviest team in the NFL behind only Arizona, Seattle, and Indianapolis. I took the time to break down the boxscore of every game since 1999 where Martz was a team’s Head Coach or Offensive Coordinator. His average Pass:Run:Sack ratio over those 8,757 plays was 58 % pass, 37% run, 5 % sack. The first thing that should jump out at you is that 5% sack rate (yes, that’ s high. We’ll get to it later), but also note how close his pass:run ratio is to what the Bears put up in 2009. This tells me that we should expect about that ratio (if not more passing) in 2010.
Before I dig any deeper, let’s take a deeper look at my sample size. I consider 8,757 plays over 10 seasons to be plenty. The first 7 seasons come from his time in St. Louis. He was the Offensive Coordinator in 1999, before taking over as Head Coach in 2000, a job he held through 5 games into the 2005 season. Martz spent 2006 and 2007 as the Lions Offensive Coordinator and held the same post for the 49ers during the 2008 season (*Note: Because Mike Singletary took over as head coach and changed the offensive philosophy after the team's 7th game, I will only be including the 49ers first 7 games of 2008 in this analysis). Take a look at the team’s records and pass:run:sack splits during those 10 seasons. Note that I only include the games from 2005 and 2008* in which Martz was on staff.
| Chart 1 | |||||||||
| Year | Tm | Gm | Pos | W | L | Plays | Sack% | Pass% | Run% |
| 1999 | STL | 16 | OC | 13 | 3 | 994 | 3% | 53% | 43% |
| 2000 | STL | 16 | HC | 10 | 6 | 1014 | 4% | 58% | 38% |
| 2001 | STL | 16 | HC | 14 | 2 | 1007 | 4% | 55% | 41% |
| 2002 | STL | 16 | HC | 7 | 9 | 1024 | 4% | 62% | 33% |
| 2003 | STL | 16 | HC | 12 | 4 | 1054 | 4% | 57% | 39% |
| 2004 | STL | 16 | HC | 8 | 8 | 1011 | 5% | 57% | 38% |
| 2005 | STL | 5 | HC | 2 | 3 | 336 | 6% | 64% | 30% |
| 2006 | DET | 16 | OC | 3 | 13 | 963 | 7% | 62% | 32% |
| 2007 | DET | 16 | OC | 7 | 9 | 965 | 6% | 61% | 34% |
| 2008 | SF | 7 | OC | 2 | 5 | 389 | 7% | 51% | 42% |
| TOTAL | 78 | 62 | 8757 | 5% | 58% | 37% | |||
Winning and running the ball a higher-than-average percentage of the time are tied together, but you should know by now that this is because good teams are generally ahead in the second half and will run the ball in order to keep the clock moving. The splits in Chart 1 show an obvious trend for Martz. Including only the 8 full seasons he coached, the team passed between 61-62% of the time the 3 seasons they were under .500. In the 5 other seasons, his team was .500 or better and passed between 53-58% of the time. His 2 best seasons in terms of record (1999 and 2001) were also the two seasons he passed the least (53% and 55 %, respectively).
I mentioned the sack rates earlier and now is a good time to come back to it considering you can still see Chart 1 on your screen. Note that the league average sack% was 4% 7 of the 8 seasons spanning from 1999-to-2006, but was closer to 3% from 2007-to-2009. That said, Martz’s clubs were near league average from 99-03 when Kurt Warner (with a side of Trent Green, Marc Bulger, and Jamie Martin) was leading his offense. It was all downhill from there. From 2004 on, Martz has not seen a sack% under 4.95% and has seen two as high as 7%. Marc Bulger (04-05) was responsible for 2 of those seasons, but Jon Kitna and J.T. O’Sullivan took the biggest beatings from 2006-to-2008.
What does all this mean to the Chicago Bears in 2010 (and possibly beyond)? Well that depends.
-Do you expect the Bears to win 10+ games? The offense will still pass a lot, but they’ll sit around the 56% mark. The sack rate will also be decent (for Martz’s standards) and should fall around 4%
-Think they’ll dangle around .500? A pass% closer to 59% is in order. Sack rate will dangle around 4.5-5%
-Expecting a top 5 draft pick next season? 62-63% of the team’s plays will be passes and Cutler will go down about 5.5% of the time.
Compare those responses to Chart 1 and you can see where they come from pretty easily. The moral of the story here is simple: the Bears, even if they’re winning and in a position to run, will still pass the ball a ton.
If you’re thinking about fantasy football right now, you just mentally downgraded Matt Forte and Chester Taylor and upgraded Jay Cutler, Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Greg Olsen, etc. Not so fast!
Although Martz loves to throw, he’s very specific about who gets the looks. I dug a bit deeper to see what kind of share of those looks each position on the depth chart gets.
Rushing:
Next up is a look at how the carries were spread across each of Martz’s teams. Some coaches give the ball to the RB1 75% of the time. Some mix it between the top two backs. Some get the receivers and tight end involved. Chart 2 tells Martz’s story.
| Chart 2 |
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| Year | Tm | Gm | Pos | Att | Yd | TD | QB | RB1 | RB2 | RB O | FB | WR | TE |
| 1999 | STL | 16 | OC | 431 | 2059 | 13 | 7% | 59% | 11% | 0% | 20% | 3% | 0% |
| 2000 | STL | 16 | HC | 383 | 1843 | 26 | 10% | 66% | 14% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 2001 | STL | 16 | HC | 416 | 2027 | 20 | 9% | 63% | 19% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| 2002 | STL | 16 | HC | 343 | 1405 | 11 | 7% | 62% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 2% |
| 2003 | STL | 16 | HC | 411 | 1496 | 19 | 8% | 51% | 21% | 17% | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| 2004 | STL | 16 | HC | 381 | 1624 | 11 | 6% | 51% | 35% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 0% |
| 2005 | STL | 5 | HC | 101 | 417 | 3 | 7% | 75% | 15% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 2006 | DET | 16 | OC | 304 | 1129 | 9 | 11% | 60% | 16% | 11% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
| 2007 | DET | 16 | OC | 324 | 1288 | 13 | 9% | 47% | 20% | 19% | 2% | 3% | 0% |
| 2008 | SF | 7 | OC | 162 | 717 | 5 | 18% | 73% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| TOTAL | 3256 | 14005 | 130 | 9% | 59% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% | |||
Key:
QB, RB1, RB2, FB, WR, TE – Self Explanatory – Carries by that position on the depth chart
RB O – o stands for “other”. Includes all other tail backs not covered in RB1/RB2
Marshall Faulk was Martz’s RB1 from 1999-to-2004, which covers every full season Martz spent there. Faulk carried the ball between 59% and 66% of the time during the first 4 years of that run before falling to 51% each of 2003 and 2004. There was a reason for each of these drops (injury in 2003, Steven Jackson’s arrival in 2004). The big mystery heading into 2010 is the split in carries between the vet newcomer Chester Taylor and the young, incumbent Matt Forte. The only year in which Martz had to find a way to utilize 2 talented backs was the 2004 campaign. Faulk, the vet, carried it 51% of the time, while the 2nd year man Jackson carried it 35% of the time. Other running backs carried it only 5% of the time, receivers 2%, and the fullback and tightend were basically uninvolved. Could this be a preview of 2010? Absolutely. In fact, prior to this research, I threw together projected carry splits for each team. I had Forte (47%) and Taylor (34%) combining for 81% of the carries, the other RBs accounting for 7%, Cutler handling 11%, and the WRs combining for 1%. Pretty close. Still, who gets the carries? The youngster who is also the incumbent or the vet who is new to the roster? I don’t think we can come to a conclusion based on this data–or at least there is nothing telling me my 47%-34% split projection is incorrect.
There is nothing else too significant on the chart. Martz handed to the fullback quite a bit early on, but eased up over his last 7 seasons. The wide receiver was always involved a little bit, with Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Az-Zahir Hakim, Roy Williams, etc. all carrying it a few times a season. That is likely to carry over to Chicago, especially considering that speedy Johnny Knox and Devin Hester will be around. The tight end carried the ball a few times for Martz, but nothing significant. Brandon Manumaleuna carried it a few times for Martz in the St. Louis days and was signed by Chicago this offseason, but it’s unlikely he’d see a carry at this stage in his career. Greg Olsen, on the other hand, could see 3-4 total carries on end arounds. Again, nothing significant here.
Receiving:
Next, we take a look at where the passes will go. Much has been said about the impact Martz’s arrival will have on the tight ends, most specifically Greg Olsen, who was the most targeted player on the Bears roster in 2009 with 20% of Jay Cutler’s passes going his direction. Some say to avoid him at all costs as he’ll be a non-factor. The Bears say they’ll find a way to keep him involved. What do the numbers say? They say: go with the former.
| Chart 3 |
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| Year | Tm | Gm | Pos | Rec | Yd | TD | T | RB | FB | WR1 | WR2 | WR S | WR4 | WR O | TE1 | TE2 |
| 1999 | STL | 16 | OC | 343 | 4580 | 42 | 100% | 25% | 6% | 22% | 15% | 10% | 10% | 1% | 7% | 3% |
| 2000 | STL | 16 | HC | 380 | 5492 | 37 | 100% | 24% | 3% | 23% | 22% | 14% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| 2001 | STL | 16 | HC | 379 | 4903 | 37 | 100% | 26% | 1% | 17% | 21% | 10% | 11% | 0% | 10% | 3% |
| 2002 | STL | 16 | HC | 408 | 4480 | 24 | 100% | 28% | 2% | 19% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 2% |
| 2003 | STL | 16 | HC | 377 | 4287 | 23 | 100% | 18% | 0% | 31% | 18% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 3% |
| 2004 | STL | 16 | HC | 372 | 4615 | 23 | 100% | 20% | 3% | 25% | 24% | 10% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| 2005 | STL | 5 | HC | 139 | 1648 | 10 | 99% | 19% | 0% | 27% | 6% | 16% | 18% | 8% | 1% | 4% |
| 2006 | DET | 16 | OC | 372 | 4208 | 21 | 99% | 25% | 2% | 22% | 26% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| 2007 | DET | 16 | OC | 368 | 4216 | 19 | 100% | 19% | 1% | 17% | 13% | 21% | 17% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| 2008 | SF | 7 | OC | 115 | 1547 | 8 | 100% | 26% | 3% | 17% | 11% | 18% | 0% | 10% | 10% | 4% |
| TOTAL | 3253 | 39976 | 244 | 100% | 23% | 2% | 22% | 19% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 6% | 3% | |||
Key:
RB, FB, WR1, WR2, WR4, TE1, TE2 – Self Explanatory – Receptions by that position on the depth chart
WR S – Slot Wide Receiver
WR O – Includes all Other wide receivers who caught a pass
Regardless of what is said by Lovie Smith or Mike Martz, odds are pretty good that Olsen sees no more than 10% of the passes this season, which basically cuts his production in half and makes him all but fantasy irrelevant. As you can see in Chart 3, the largest portion of a Martz team’s receptions ever delivered to a TE1 was 10% (twice, 2001 to Ernie Conwell & 2008 to Vernon Davis). After seeing what kind of impact Davis made in 2009 with Martz out of the picture (25% of the 49ers receptions, 965 yards, 13 TD), it should be relatively clear that it doesn’t matter how talented a receiver the tight end in question is, he just won’t be involved in the pass game.
And note that 10% on those two occasions is the ceiling for a Martz offense. The average team receptions for the team’s top receiving tight end was 6%! Going even further, receptions made by additional tight ends on the roster averaged out at only 3%, which means the average Martz offense completed only 9% of its passes to the tight end. To give you perspective, in the 2009 season, the Arizona Cardinals were dead last in the NFL in regards to getting the ball to the tight end. Cardinals’ tight ends combined to catch 6% of the team’s passes. The next closest was the Patriots at 11%.
Now that we covered the tight end debate, let’s focus on some other positions, starting with running back.
As you can see on Chart 3, completions to the runningback have been both consistent and high. Martz clearly liked having Warner dump the ball off to Marshall Faulk, with Faulk catching a majority of the 24-28% of the passes to the RB from 1999-2002. Although we see a 10% dropoff from 2002 to 2003, the rate bounces back several times with 6 of the 10 seasons ending up over 23%. In fact, the average Martz team threw to the RB 23% of the time–25% if you include the fullback.
These numbers are all but useless without perspective, so let’s look at the 2009 season again. The Ravens led the NFL with 30% of their passes going to the runningback (includes fullbacks). The Chargers were 3rd in this category at 25%, which is right where the average Martz team would sit.
Finally, we have passes to wide receivers. This is where it gets tricky. Through the first half or so of his coaching career, Martz was fortunate enough to have Isaac Bruce and rising star (and later NFL superstar) Torry Holt at his disposal. Then, in Detroit, he had Roy Williams (when he was good) and 1 season of Calvin Johnson. This presents a problem when projecting for 2010 because the Bears don’t have 1-2 standout wide receivers. Instead, they have 4-5 young receivers who do not have permanent spots on the depth chart. This will be a bit easier once we get an idea of the roles each player will take on.
Chart 3 clearly shows that Martz made sure his WR1 saw plenty of looks. In fact, in 8 of the first 10 seasons shown here, the top WR caught at least 21% of the team’s passes. Where we need to focus most of our attention is the last few seasons, when Martz focused more on the team’s slot receivers. While coaching in Detroit, Martz had Jon Kitna force feed the ball to slot WRs Shaun McDonald (21% of passes in 2007) and Mike Furrey (26% of passes in 2006, 17% in 2007). This was mainly a result of not having elite players at WR1 and WR2. Considering this will be the case in 2009, the reception splits are worth noting. In 2007, McDonald’s 21% was the highest mark on the team. In 2008 with San Francisco, 18% to slot man Arnaz Battle led that team. This bodes well for whoever ends up playing the slot for Chicago. In fact, it likely bodes well for 2 Bears slot receivers. The 2 receivers split out wide should be expected to catch around 30% of the passes, where as the 2 guys coming across the middle will end up totaling a figure around 40%.
Moral of the story here is that you’re going to want to target the speedy, possession receivers who will line up in the slot and catch 6-7 balls a game, especially in PPR formats. This all bodes well for Devin Hester, who is a perfect fit to carry on the Az-Zahir Hakim/Dane Looker/Kevin Curtis/Ricky Proehl/Furrey/McDonald/Battle/etc tradition.
Passing:
Next up, I’d like to take a look at the impact Mike Martz could have on Jay Cutler.
| Chart 4 |
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| Year | Tm | Gm | Pos | QB | %R | C% | YPC | YPA | TD/C | TD/A | INT/A |
| 1999 | STL | 16 | OC | Warner | 7% | 65% | 13.4 | 8.6 | 12.2% | 7.9% | 2.8% |
| 2000 | STL | 16 | HC | Warner/Green | 10% | 65% | 14.5 | 9.4 | 9.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
| 2001 | STL | 16 | HC | Warner | 9% | 69% | 12.9 | 8.9 | 9.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| 2002 | STL | 16 | HC | Warner/Bulger/Martin | 7% | 64% | 11.0 | 7.1 | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% |
| 2003 | STL | 16 | HC | Bulger/Warner | 8% | 63% | 11.4 | 7.1 | 6.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 2004 | STL | 16 | HC | Bulger/Chandler | 6% | 64% | 12.4 | 8.0 | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| 2005 | STL | 5 | HC | Bulger | 7% | 65% | 11.9 | 7.7 | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% |
| 2006 | DET | 16 | OC | Kitna | 11% | 62% | 11.3 | 7.1 | 5.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| 2007 | DET | 16 | OC | Kitna | 9% | 63% | 11.5 | 7.2 | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| 2008 | SF | 7 | OC | O’Sullivan | 18% | 58% | 13.5 | 7.8 | 7.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% |
| Martz Average | 9% | 64% | 12.3 | 7.9 | 7.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | ||||
Martz had the pleasure of working with Kurt Warner for a majority of his time in the NFL. I say pleasure because, as you can see from Chart 2, Warner’s dominance from 1999-2001 significantly inflate Martz’s career passing stats (if you will). Warner put up incredible 8.6, 9.4, and 8.9 YPA marks during those 3 seasons and had TD/Att marks above 6.3% and as high as 8% as well. To give you an idea of how impressive that is, the league average YPA and TD/Att in the NFL from 1999-2009 are 7.0 and 4.2%, respectively. You can see that in no other year after that did his passing game come close to approaching those impressive first three seasons.
One thing that is noticeable is the high completion rates each full season he coached. The league average completion percentage is 61% since 1999. The worst completion% put up by a team coached by Mike Martz for 16 games was 62% by Jon Kitna in 2006. In fact, you can see that the mark was 64% or better in 5 of those 8 seasons.
I also included a column to show the % of the team’s passes that were runs by the quarterback (%R). This may not seem overly relevant, but something many people forget to incorporate into fantasy projections is rushes by the quarterback. In fact, the stat that pushed Aaron Rodgers to the top of my pre-season fantasy rankings both last season (turned out well, eh?) and for the upcoming 2010 season was the high amount of rushes he accrues each game. Note that the average Mike Martz Quarterback runs on 9% of the team’s run plays.
Wondering about Jay Cutler’s career marks in these categories? I was too.
| Chart 5 |
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| Year | Tm | Gm | Pos | Player | %R | Com% | Y/C | Y/A | TD/C | TD/A | INT/A |
| 2006 | DEN | 5 | QB | Jay Cutler | 8% | 59% | 12.4 | 7.3 | 11.1% | 6.6% | 3.6% |
| 2007 | DEN | 16 | QB | Jay Cutler | 10% | 64% | 11.8 | 7.5 | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| 2008 | DEN | 16 | QB | Jay Cutler | 15% | 62% | 11.8 | 7.3 | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% |
| 2009 | CHI | 16 | QB | Jay Cutler | 11% | 61% | 10.9 | 6.6 | 8.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% |
| Cutler Average | 11% | 62% | 11.6 | 7.1 | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | ||||
| Martz Average | 9% | 64% | 12.3 | 7.9 | 7.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | ||||
Cutler comes up short in every category aside of INT%, but remember that the Martz average includes those crazy Warner years. If we were to regress Martz a bit, you’d come out closer to, well, numbers close to, if not worse, than Cutler’s career average so far.
That all being said, I don’t see Mike Martz’s arrival affecting Cutler’s numbers too much. Cutler is better than Kitna and possibly Bulger in his prime, but is not Kurt Warner in his prime. When all is said in done, Cutler’s career marks should be pretty good indicators for what to expect under Martz. The only adjustments I’d make are a 1-2% boost in Completion% and a 0.5% adjustment to the bad to account for the high 2009 rate (4.7%) and the recurring high INT% for Martz quarterbacks.
Conclusion:
Although the 2-runningback system and wide receiver depth chart questions pose a projection nightmare, there are still a lot we can learn from Martz’s trends.
Jay Cutler should put up similar numbers to what we’ve seen in his career. The INT rate will be better than in 2009 and his completion rate should improve slightly.
Although they may only combine for 300 carries, Matt Forte and Chester Taylor still bring fantasy value to the table considering they should combine for at least 100 receptions and close to 900 receiving yards. The burning question will continue to be which of the two gets more of the looks.
Tight end is pretty simple: avoid at all costs. Olsen will be lucky to see 9% of the targets this season, which means 35 receptions is probably pushing it.
Wide Receiver is tricky. Devin Hester seems like the best bet, but there are still question marks regarding his role. If he plays most passing downs and is in the slot, he’s PPR gold and could approach 85-90 receptions. Speedy Johnny Knox was used primarily as a down-field threat in 2009, but could be moved to a slot role in 2010? Earl Bennett and Devin Aromashodu will also be looking to find a spot on the field, but neither seem likely to make the impact Hester and Knox could. Juaquin Iglesias made no impact in his rookie 2009 campaign, but will be looking to move up the depth chart this fall.
There was a lot to be learned from this study, but all of the questions cannot be answered without a better idea of what the depth chart will look like. Once the fall rolls around, come back and re-read this article. It should help you decide on Hester or Knox, Taylor or Forte, and Olsen or a box of crackerjacks.
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