It's often said that no position is more confusing to project than cornerback, in that a player's skill is often inversely proportional to his fantasy value. Over the course of the past few seasons, no cornerback has been more consistently respected than the Oakland Raiders' Nnamdi Asomugha, but his fantasy value has been virtually nonexistent. The reason, of course, is because opposing quarterbacks consistently avoid Asomugha, resulting in precious few opportunities for interceptions, passes-defensed, or even tackles.
Meanwhile, inexperienced rookie cornerbacks are amongst the most valuable, because opportunistic opposing quarterbacks will target them whenever possible. And just as middle linebackers on bad teams tend to receive a disproportionate number of tackle opportunities, bad (or inexperienced) cornerbacks on good teams will tend to have a lot of footballs flying in their general direction, thus significantly boosting their fantasy value.
For this reason, many owners decide to pursue the well-worn strategy of picking up a cornerback playing opposite an All-Pro like Asomugha (Chris Johnson has been a popular pick of late), or perhaps even going after the worst available cornerback (on the best possible team) in waivers each week. It's a strategy that's worked well, and there's good reason to believe that it will continue to bear fruit. However, Rex Ryan's utilization of Darrelle Revis (matched against the opposition's top receiver each week) has caused a bit of a chain reaction, and it could significantly alter cornerbacks' fantasy values moving forward.
This season, rather than being tasked with shutting down one side of the field (and leaving opposing QB's to target Johnson at will), Asomugha will now be given the opportunity to shut down the opposition's top receiver every week. Unless the Raiders' opponents allow their top receiver to be eliminated from the game simply by virtue of Asomugha's presence, it seems quite likely that the Raiders' star cornerback will see a huge increase in targets-against in 2010. And consequently, he will quickly go from being a fantasy afterthought to one of the top fantasy cornerbacks.
Without further ado, here's our ranking of the top 20 cornerbacks based upon actual skill combined with fantasy potential (including a few bad cornerbacks noted with an asterisk), and 5 sleepers to consider…
1. Brandon Flowers (Kansas City Chiefs): An excellent tackler, Flowers should see his targets-against increase as the Chiefs continue to improve (more passes-against in the second halves of games), which will enable his numbers to rise across the board. The addition of ballhawking safety Eric Berry should also help, as should the development of talented cornerback Javier Arenas.
2. Johnathan Joseph (Cincinnati Bengals): Leon Hall is the better coverage corner of the Bengals' excellent bookends, which makes it likely that Joseph will be targeted a bit more often. Both corners finished in the top 10 in PFF rankings and should finish in the top ten amongst fantasy corners. It would certainly help their numbers if the Bengals' offense improves; ditto if Antwan Odom is able to remain healthy and wreak havoc on opposing QBs all season long.
3. Charles Woodson (Green Bay Packers): Woodson put up a monstrous season in 2010, finishing atop PFF's cornerback rankings, and his fantasy value was tremendous as well. Woodson turns 34 this season, and it's a good bet that opponents will keep on targeting him in 2010. It's probably unrealistic to expect another world-beating season, but if the high-powered Aaron Rodgers-led Packers offense continues to improve, it's quite probable that the Packers' secondary will be very busy in the second halves of games.
4. Leon Hall (Cincinnati Bengals): See above for notes on Johnathan Joseph.
5. Champ Bailey (Denver Broncos): As Bailey approaches the end of his storied career, he'll be targeted more often (see: Charles Woodson, Packers). André Goodman hasn't exactly been a star across from Bailey, but the playmaking ability he's demonstrated this season might cause opposing QB's to give a little pause before targeting him exclusively. Perhaps the biggest factor in Bailey's productivity will be the development of 2009 second round pick Alphonso Smith (to this point a disappointment) and rookie fifth round pick Perrish Cox (to this point, one of the absolute steals of the 2010 Draft).
6. Antonio Cromartie (New York Jets)*: With the Jets' attacking defense, interception opportunities are quite plentiful. And whether Darrelle Revis is playing across from him or not, it's a safe bet that opposing QB's will spend plenty of time targeting Cromartie this season. He'll make a slew of mistakes, but his combination of athletic ability and opportunity should make him an every-week fantasy starter in 2010.
7. Nnamdi Asomugha (Oakland Raiders): Without question, the most controversial player on this list. Virtually every IDP ranking system has Asomugha somewhere between irrelevant and nonexistent. But if his role changes as expected, look for Asomugha's value to absolutely surge. He was actually fairly productive given his limited opportunities in 2009 (only 28 targets against). If that number doubles in 2010 (a distinct possibility), Asomugha could easily put together a season comparable to Woodson's.
8. Antoine Winfield (Minnesota Vikings): An excellent tackler, Winfield isn't great in coverage, but he'll see plenty of opportunities in the Vikings' defense, what with Jared Allen and the Williams Wall making life miserable for opposing passers. In fact, Winfield's combination of age (33), height (5'9″), declining coverage ability (-8.8 from 2008 to 2009), tackling ability, and opportunity could be the perfect storm for fantasy owners.
9. Terrell Thomas (New York Giants): By all accounts, Thomas put together a very solid 2009 season despite playing in a secondary that was missing Kenny Phillips and Aaron Ross (and a pass rush that was missing Osi Umenyiora) for much of the year. With the additions of Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant – and the returns of Phillips, Ross, and Umenyiora – it will be that much harder for opposing QB's to avoid Thomas (eighth-best 12.6 rating in 2009).
10. Richard Marshall (Carolina Panthers)*: Marshall wasn't very good in 2009, but he'll continue to start for the Panthers, and should be targeted often enough to be quite valuable in IDP leagues. However, for those in dynasty leagues, be forewarned that the 2011 Draft is expected to be very deep with quality cornerbacks, and a demotion for Marshall is inevitable if his skills don't markedly improve.
11. Mike Jenkins (Dallas Cowboys): With Terence Newman remaining above him on the depth chart, Jenkins should see plenty of targets in 2010. The one concern for Jenkins' fantasy value is that if he continues to improve as dramatically as he did from 2008 (-8.3) to 2009 (9.7), he could easily emerge as the shutdown corner to be avoided in the Dallas defense. However, the Cowboys' fearsome pass rush (Ware, Spencer, Ratliff) will put enough pressure on opposing QB's that they're still likely to make plenty of bad decisions with the ball.
12. Charles Tillman (Chicago Bears)*: See Richard Marshall, above.
13. Darrelle Revis (New York Jets)
14. Jabari Greer (New Orleans Saints)
15. Terry Porter (New Orleans Saints)
16. Aqib Talib (Tampa Bay Buccanneers)
17. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Arizona Cardinals)
18. Nate Clements (San Francisco 49ers)
19. Terence Newman (Dallas Cowboys)
20. Kelvin Hayden (Indianapolis Colts)
* Ranked highly for fantasy potential rather than actual coverage/tackling ability.
SLEEPERS TO CONSIDER
1. Leodis McKelvin (Buffalo Bills): Widely considered the best cornerback available in the 2009 Draft, McKelvin lost most of 2009 to injury. He's now healthy, and should be matched against the opposition's top receiver every week. If his skills have improved – as expected – from 2008, look for McKelvin to re-emerge on IDP owners' radar by Week 3 or 4. If you're smart, you'll pick him up before then.
2. Lardarius Webb (Baltimore Ravens): The incredibly talented Webb should get plenty of opportunities in the Ravens' opportunistic defense. Some project him to ultimately replace Ed Reed at free safety, but as long as he's lining up at cornerback alongside Fabian Washington, Webb should put up very solid numbers in 2010.
3. Vontae Davis & Sean Smith (Miami Dolphins): The younger brother of 49ers tight end Vernon, Davis (4.6) put together a very solid rookie campaign alongside fellow first-year CB Sean Smith (4.5). If the young corners build upon their first year's experience – and if the offense improves in its second year under Chad Henne, with Brandon Marshall added to the receiving corps – things could get quite interesting for both Miami cornerbacks.
4. Christopher Owens (Atlanta Falcons): A third round pick in the 2009 draft, Owens finished his rookie year with a very competent 0.4 rating (in sharp comparison, high-priced free agent acquisition Dunta Robinson finished at -7.9). He's played well this offseason, and should start across from Robinson. Fifth round pick Dominique Franks will likely push for a starting job in 2011; don't be surprised if it's Robinson (and not Owens) that he ultimately replaces, though the $25.5 million guaranteed money in Robinson's $57 million contract may make such a move difficult for Falcons owner Arthur Blanks to swallow.
5. Perrish Cox (Denver Broncos): An absolute steal in the fifth round of the 2010 Draft, Cox has been very solid filling in for the injured Champ Bailey at left cornerback this preseason. His interception in the end zone against the Steelers (particularly the footwork he demonstrated in keeping both feet in-bounds). There's been a fair amount of speculation that Cox will replace Bailey in 2011 (the perennial All-Pro is in the final year of his contract with the Broncos), and a strong rookie year as the Broncos' nickel corner would do nothing to dispel that notion.
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