In the final installment of this series, our analysts turn their attention to the NFC West.
This is their last chance to speak out before being locked away to inspect the Week 1 action and they find plenty to say about this history-making division. Yes, there will be breakout players. Yes, there are definite positional strengths across the teams. And yes, one of them will make the playoffs.
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Be sure to have a look back at the answers to these questions for each of the other divisions too:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South
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Who'll be this division's breakout player for 2011?
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Khaled: In honor of Sam Monson, I almost want to say Tarvaris Jackson, but watching 200-plus games of football a year hasn’t turned me that crazy yet. Instead, I’ll take a chance on Dan Williams getting more playing time, and turning out to be one of the more stout nose tackles in the league.
Neil: It’s defense all the way in this division and I’ll be surprised if any of our analysts mentioning the Cardinals doesn’t name Daryl Washington now that he’s starting. Given how much superior he was to the rest of the linebackers in Arizona, the real shame was they hardly gave him any playing time at all in Weeks 9 through 13; maybe to stop the other guys from looking so bad in comparison. With the Rams, I’m going for Justin Bannan. I know we didn’t grade him that highly last year with the Broncos but I believe that was more a problem with the dysfunctional Denver D than him and he’ll show that in 2011. While Ahmad Brooks isn’t as good as Manny Lawson he’s not a bad replacement in San Francisco and, if he can cut down on the penalties, I think the loss of Lawson won’t be too great. Finally, for the Seahawks, Raheem Brock will get a ton of pressure as, from Week 11 of 2010 into the playoffs, no one was as destructive as the ex-colt.
Ben: Dan Williams played extremely well in limited playing time last season and now with a full starting role his for the taking he looks ready to emerge and grow into one of the better nose tackles in the league. With players like Vonnie Holliday added and hopefully more consistent performance from Calais Campbell, the Cardinals’ defensive line could become a force to be reckoned with in the NFC West. Williams may have come in to camp out of shape after, by his own admittance, not doing enough during the lockout, but his displays last year show what a force he can be.
Nathan: Seahawks defensive linemen Red Bryant should have a huge year in 2011. His first two seasons in the league were mediocre with very few snaps in any game. He started last season showing flashes of being an elite run stopping end before his season was cut short by injury. Now he is back and better than ever. There are very few teams with two very good defensive ends, but this year the Seahawks will be one of them.
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The over/under lines on the season win total for teams in this division are: St. Louis Rams 7.5; San Francisco 49ers 7.5; Seattle Seahawks 6.5; Arizona Cardinals 6.5. On which team would you put your theoretical $100?
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Khaled: The Rams will be better than they were last year – not by much – but enough that they’ll get to nine wins.
Neil: I’m going over on St. Louis at 7.5, not because they particularly impress me, but due to the lack of confidence I have in every other team.
Ben: Seattle has questions marks at quarterback but I still think they’re more than capable of winning more than 6.5 games this season. Their defense should be solid and if the offensive line comes together, there is enough talent across the rest of the offense to drag their quarterbacks close to .500.
Nathan: I had liked the direction the 49ers defense was going prior to this offseason, but losing Aubrayo Franklin, Takeo Spikes, Travis LaBoy, Manny Lawson and Nate Clements can only hurt. Not much changed on the offensive side of the ball, so I will say the 49ers go under 7.5 wins.
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What do you see as the positional strength of the division?
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Khaled: Defensive ends, regardless of formation. I had Justin Smith as my second best player in the whole of the NFL last year, so you can probably imagine I think he’s pretty good. Sticking with 3-4 guys, Darnell Dockett is better suited to a tackle role, but comes alive in the sub package, while Calais Campbell has the talent to be an every-down nuisance. On the 4-3 side of things, Chris Long had his breakout year last year, and with the more hybrid defense of the Seahawks, Red Bryant is a beast in run support while Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock pile on the pressure. Something for everyone in this division.
Neil: Inside linebackers. Patrick Willis is all-world, James Laurinaitis should get to the Pro Bowl this year, David Hawthorne has been a PFF favorite for years and I mentioned Daryl Washington above. If you want to add to that list then Navorro Bowman is a good player and Paris Lenon? … not so much!
Ben: In the league’s worst division there still is at least some relative strength and for that I’m going to look at defensive end, both 3-4 and 4-3. The Seahawks have a fine pair of rush ends in the shape of Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock; in San Francisco Justin Smith is the best 3-4 end in the league by a comfortable margin; the Rams will be looking for Chris Long to convert more of his pressure in to sacks and shore up his play against the run; finally Arizona has a fine player in Calais Campbell, still with his own issues in run defense. The Cardinals are also going to be the latest squad to find out – and probably under-appreciate like the last two teams he’s played for – the contribution Vonnie Holliday brings to 3-4 defenses in sub packages.
Nathan: I’ll go with the receiving tight end being the one thing these teams have in common. The only player remaining from last year is Vernon Davis who is a classic case of a tight end who can catch but not block. Todd Heap and Zach Miller joined the division, with all three of these players ranking in the Top 10 of last year’s tight end receiving ratings. Rounding out the group is rookie Lance Kendricks, who has shown potential in the preseason as a frequent target for Sam Bradford.
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Who is going to make the playoffs and do they have a shot to win it all?
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Khaled: Whoever it is won’t win it all and will likely be one and done. I’ll go for the Rams because they look like the most stable team and have made progress this off season. I just can’t bet on teams led by guys like Kevin Kolb, Tarvaris Jackson and Alex Smith.
Neil: St. Louis gets it done this year but not by much (maybe nine wins) and loses to whoever they host in the Wild Card round.
Ben: I’m expecting even more mediocrity this season and this one may just come down to who has the most solid QB play. For that reason I’ll take the Rams and second-year QB Sam Bradford to take the division with no less than nine wins.
Nathan: This division will be just as bad as last year I believe, so it will be just one team making it as the fourth seed, and my guess is they would lose to the fifth seed unlike last year. It’s just a matter of which team to put here, and I think it’s the Rams that will barely take the division.
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Follow the guys on Twitter: @PFF_Khaled, @PFF_Neil, @PFF_NateJahnke … and the main feed: @ProFootbalFocus
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