Weeks 1 and 2 of the 2011 NFL season are in the books, which means we actually have some real data we can utilize in this week’s edition of the Offensive Matchup Report.
As mentioned previously, this article will progressively improve in terms of reliability as the season progresses. Right now, we have past season historical data and 120-140 snaps from 2011 for each team. That’s a somewhat outdated and small sample size, respectively, which is why this article took one week off between Weeks 1 and 3. Fortunately, we now have some solid data from 2011, so I’ll do my best to provide a handful of upgrades and downgrades for this week based on the information at hand.
Before we get started on Week 3, let’s review our Week 1 progress:
Upgrade Kyle Orton to QB16 – Actual: QB18
Downgrade Joe Flacco to QB21 – Actual: QB9
Upgrade Darren McFadden to RB4 – Actual: RB12
Downgrade BenJarvus Green-Ellis to RB32 – Actual: RB34
Upgrade Santonio Holmes to WR8 – Actual: WR35
Downgrade Miles Austin to WR23 – Actual: WR11
Upgrade Lance Kendricks to TE7 – Actual: N/A
Downgrade Owen Daniels to TE6 – Actual: TE46
Not as good as I’d like, but, again, our success rate will improve each week. On to Week 3:
QB UPGRADE
Browns Colt McCoy vs. Dolphins
So far in 2011, 77 passes have been attempted against the Dolphins. They’ve allowed 53 completions for 747 yards, six scores, and just one interception. Of course, one of those games was Tom Brady’s 517 yard effort and the other games against the Texans, but they’ve still been pretty awful nonetheless, especially in the pass TD department. Miami hung in both games against tough opponents, which likely means they’ll be ahead of or close to Cleveland on the scoreboard all day. McCoy could be a top 12 QB this week if he finds the endzone twice.
Projection: 21-of-38, 233 yards, 1.6 TD, 0.6 INT (QB # 10)
Others: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton, Tarvaris Jackson
QB DOWNGRADE
Steelers Ben Roethlisberger vs. Colts
Indy has been one of the best Fantasy defenses against the pass over the last few seasons and that’s still the case today, despite their struggles on offense. In fact, those offensive struggles are part of the reason their pass defense has been pretty good. The Texans and Browns combined for 60 drop backs in their two games against Indy compared to 68 runs. That allowed the Indy defense to hold their opponents to a combined 431 yards, two TDs, and two INT. Roethlisberger shouldn’t have much trouble completing passes, but with Pittsburgh expected to dominate, he’ll have trouble racking up yardage and scores on such a low number of attempts.
Projection: 19-of-27, 241 yards, 0.9 TD, 0.9 INT (QB # 15)
Others: Sam Bradford, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler
RB UPGRADE
Lions Jahvid Best vs. Vikings
My top rated running back this week, Jahvid Best is set for a big day at Minnesota. The Chargers and Buccaneers backs combined for three scores and 169 yards on just 40 carries against the Vikings during the first two weeks of the season. Additionally, those team’s runningbacks hauled in 20 of 23 targets for 165 yards and two more touchdowns. That works out to a 0.8 boost in YPC and a huge jump in TD rate for opposing tailbacks.
Projection: 19 carries, 86 yards, 4 receptions, 33 yards, 1.0 total TD (PPR RB # 1)
Others: Rashard Mendenhall, Ahmad Bradshaw, Beanie Wells
RB DOWNGRADE
Eagles LeSean McCoy vs. Giants
McCoy relied heavily on the pass game en route to a huge 2010 Fantasy season, but the targets just haven’t been there so far in 2011. The Eagles are a pass heavy team, which means that McCoy will end up as a pretty inconsistent fantasy producer this year if Mike Vick doesn’t looks his way more often. His owners have been fortunate so far in that he’s averaging 6.6 yards per carry and has found the endzone four times despite just 39 touches. This week, he faces the Giants, who allowed the Redskins and Rams to combine for just 118 yards and one score on 42 carries by tailbacks. Additionally, those RB units (led by quality pass catchers Tim Hightower and Cadillac Williams) were held to six receptions and 29 receiving yards. McCoy is in for a down week.
Projection: 13 carries, 52 yards, 3 receptions, 22 yards, 0.6 total TD (PPR RB # 20)
Others: Steven Jackson, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Hillis
WR UPGRADE
Bills David Nelson / Stevie Johnson / Donald Jones vs. Patriots
It might seem odd to include receivers facing the mighty Patriots on this list, but teams are forced to throw the ball a ton against good teams. The Bills already love to throw the ball, they’ve been very effective offensively so far in 2011, and they’ve run 3+ WR sets 75% of the time this year – an NFL high. Their two previous opponents, the Dolphins and Chargers, combined for 101 drop backs, which led to a combined 515 yards and three touchdowns for opposing wide receivers. Note that I’m not even including passes to running backs or tight ends there – only wideouts. Opposing WRs have enjoyed large boosts in YPR (+2.8), TD% (+4.5%), and Catch Rate (+9%) as compared to their other 2011 game.
Projection – Johnson: 6 receptions, 93 yards, 0.9 TD (PPR WR # 1)
Projection – Nelson: 6 receptions, 77 yards, 0.5 TD (PPR WR # 8 )
Projection – Jones: 4 receptions, 49 yards, 0.4 TD (PPR WR # 33)
Others: Julio Jones, AJ Green, Brandon Lloyd
WR DOWNGRADE
Dolphins Brandon Marshall vs. Browns
Before you jump all over me, I do realize that the Browns schedule so far has included the Dalton/Gradkowski-led Bengals and Collins-led Colts. Still, those teams dropped back to pass only 71 times and managed to complete just 16 passes to wide receivers for 202 yards and one score. Both team’s wide receivers, especially Cincinnati’s, fared much better in their other game. Led by Joe Haden, opposing wide receivers have seen their YPR drop 2.3, TD rate drop by 3.8%, and catch rate fall by 16%.
Projection: 5 receptions, 58 yards, 0.2 TD (PPR WR # 29)
Others: Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, Calvin Johnson
TE UPGRADE
Rams Lance Kendricks vs. Ravens
Nothing too significant stands out this week in the Tight End Rankings, but Kendricks is worth mentioning again considering his poor start and back-end TE1 status this week. The Ravens have combined to allow opposing tight ends six receptions on eight targets for 80 yards in two games so far. Obviously, that isn’t much, but consider that in the Steelers and Titans other two games, their TEs combined for just three receptions and 25 yards on eight targets. See what I did there? It’s obviously a painfully small sample size, but the fact is that the Ravens defense has allowed opposing Tight Ends to be better than they are normally. Kendricks isn’t a homerun hitter yet, but he has a good shot at reaching 50 yards and has a one is three shot at a score.
Projection: 3 receptions, 51 yards, 0.3 TD (PPR TE # 11)
Others: Scott Chandler
TE DOWNGRADE
Saints Jimmy Graham vs. Texans
After holding Dallas Clark to four catches and 39 yards on six targets in the season opener, the Texans shut down Week 1 standout Anthony Fasano to the tune of zero catches on one target. Dolphins and Colts tight ends combined for 14 targets, 10 receptions, 118 yards, and 1 score in their other games. That’s a YPR drop of 2.1, TD rate decrease of 10%, and catch rate drop of 14%.
Projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards, 0.3 TD (PPR TE # 10)
Others: Ed Dickson
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