The NFL is officially back, so get pumped for fantasy football! The next week is going to be crazy with free agent signings, rookie contracts, roster cuts, trades, and holdouts. Stay informed, as a seemingly basic NFL roster move can affect your fantasy roster.
Today we highlight the historical data of third season defensive backs, and players to target in 2011. Defensive back is the deepest position in football, so show patience during your draft. Solid players will fall to you if you let it happen.
.
Click the link below to view the Excel report:
>>> Third Season DB Production <<<
.
Percentages for a 16-team league, starting 2 DBs
“Starters” were players ranked in the Top 32 at the end of the season.
“Backups” were players worthy of contributing to your fantasy team in a limited capacity.
“Rosterable” were players worthy of belonging on a fantasy roster.
“Minimal Contribution” were players on waivers who could be useful in case of emergencies (ex: injuries, byes, poor match-up).
“No Contribution” were players who could be found on waivers.
.
Third Season Production, 2010: 54 Defensive Backs
4% chance of owning a starter (2 players)
– 4% chance of owning a DB#1 (2 players)
– 0% chance of owning a DB#2 (0 players)
11% chance of owning a backup (6 players)
17% chance of minimal contribution in third season (9 players)
69% chance of no contribution in third season (37 players)
.
Third Season Production, 2006 – 2010: 296 Defensive Backs
7% chance of owning a starter (22 players)
– 3% chance of owning a DB#1 (9 players)
– 5% chance of owning a DB#2 (13 players)
11% chance of owning a backup (34 players)
15% chance of minimal contribution in third season (45 players)
66% chance of no contribution in third season (195 players)
.
Defensive Backs drafted in the first or second rounds, 2006 – 2010: 67
16% chance of owning a starter (11 players)
– 6% chance of owning a DB#1 (4 players)
– 10% chance of owning a DB#2 (7 players)
31% chance of owning a backup (21 players)
24% chance of minimal contribution in third season (16 players)
28% chance of no contribution in third season (19 players)
.
Defensive Backs drafted in the third or fourth rounds, 2006 – 2010: 72
8% chance of owning a starter (6 players)
– 4% chance of owning a DB#1 (3 players)
– 4% chance of owning a DB#2 (3 players)
6% chance of owning a backup (4 players)
15% chance of minimal contribution in third season (11 players)
71% chance of no contribution in third season (51 players)
.
Defensive Backs drafted after the fourth round, 2006 – 2010: 157
3% chance of owning a starter (5 players)
– 1% chance of owning a DB#1 (2 players)
– 2% chance of owning a DB#2 (3 players)
6% chance of owning a backup (9 players)
11% chance of minimal contribution in third season (18 players)
80% chance of no contribution in third season (125 players)
.
.
Quick Hits:
Second round defensive backs compared favorable to first round defensive backs, so they were merged into the same tier.
There were 25 cornerbacks that achieved Rosterable status, compared to 32 safeties.
There were six cornerbacks that achieved Starter status, compared to 16 safeties.
2010 was a poor year for third season defensive backs. From 2006 to 2009, there were at least four third season starters and at least 11 Rosterable DB’s. 2010 only produced two starters (Terrell Thomas and Tyvon Branch) and six backups.
Of the 22 third season defensive backs that ranked in the Top 32 at the end of the season, 18 were non-first round draft picks.
Teams that have been terrible at producing third season Rosterable defensive backs: Eagles (11 DB’s, zero Rosterable players), Jaguars (11 DB’s, zero Rosterable players), Cowboys (9 DB’s, zero Rosterable players), Broncos (8 DB’s, zero Rosterable players), Seahawks (7 DB’s, zero Rosterable players), Ravens (6 DB’s, zero Rosterable players), Dolphins (4 DB’s, zero Rosterable players), and Bills (12 DB’s, 1 Rosterable player).
The best teams at producing Rosterable DB’s in their third season: Chiefs (8 DB’s, 2 Starters, 1 Backup), Bengals (10 DB’s, 2 Starters, 1 Backup), and Giants (10 DB’s, 2 Starters, 1 Backup). No team produced three Starters.
Solid DB’s can be found late in your draft, so don’t be pressured to use a premium pick on the position. Defensive back should be the second-to-last position to acquire during your draft, right before kicker. Need some proof? There are only seven DB’s that became Starters in their third season that I’d target in my 2011 draft: Thomas, Branch, O.J. Atogwe, Bernard Pollard, Kerry Rhodes, Cortland Finnegan, and Roman Harper. DB is not only the deepest position in the NFL, but it’s also turns out a wide assortment of talent.
.
Notable third season defensive backs for 2011 (player, position, round drafted):
Vontae Davis CB (1), Malcolm Jenkins S (1), Alphonso Smith CB (2), Darius Butler CB (2), Michael Mitchell CB (2), Sean Smith CB (2), Darcel McBath S (2), Jairus Byrd S (2), Louis Delmas S (2), Patrick Chung S (2), Sherrod Martin S (2), William Moore S (2), Asher Allen CB (3), Bradley Fletcher CB (3), Christopher Owens CB (3), Derek Cox CB (3), Jerraud Powers CB (3), Keenan Lewis CB (3), Lardarius Webb CB (3), Ryan Mouton CB (3), Kevin Barnes S (3), Rashad Johnson S (3), D.J. Moore CB (4), Glover Quin CB (4), Gregory Toler CB (4), Chip Vaughn S (4), David Bruton S (4), Donald Washington S (4), Brandon Hughes CB (5), William Middleton CB (5), DeAngelo Smith DB (5), Joe Burnett DB (5), Chris Clemons S (5), Michael Hamlin S (5), Victor Harris S (5), Brandon Underwood CB (6), Brice McCain CB (6), Jason McCourty CB (6), Morgan Trent CB (6), Cary Harris DB (6), Coye Francies DB (6), DeAndre Wright DB (6), Kevin Ellison DB (6), Al Afalava S (6), Don Carey S (6), Captain Munnerlyn CB (7), E.J. Biggers CB (7), Ellis Lankster DB (7), Mike Mickens DB (7), Nick Schommer DB (7), Courtney Greene S (7), Curtis Taylor S (7), Jamarca Sanford S (7), Troy Nolan S (7), Brice McCain CB (ND), Bruce Johnson CB (ND), Byron Westbrook CB (ND), Cary Williams CB (ND), Jacob Lacey CB (ND), Kyle Arrington CB (ND), Marquice Cole CB (ND), C.J. Spillman S (ND), Ryan Mundy S (ND), Tom Nelson S (ND),
The percentages state two third season DB’s drafted in the first or second rounds will become fantasy starters. There are solid names in this tier, and it’s tough to narrow my targets. Let’s start with the ProFootballFocus Premium Stats ratings (using a snap filter of 25%) for the obvious contenders, all of which are safeties: Byrd 23, Chung 35, Delmas 43, Jenkins 47, Martin 48, Moore 73.
Last season, the production of Donte Whitner, Byrd, Bryan Scott, and George Wilson prevented fantasy owners from feeling comfortable targeting any of these Bills early in the season. Although Whitner is a free agent, the Bills habit of producing multiple serviceable safeties should keep owners away from Byrd. Martin and Moore are currently penciled in as starters for their teams, but they are best left as late targets for leagues with deep rosters. Of the remaining three players, my choice would be Chung and Delmas due to their superior tackling ability compared to Jenkins. Chung’s impressive leap in stats in his second season compared to his rookie year should have owners ranking him high on their draft boards.
D/ST leagues, take note of the Dolphins cornerback tandem of Sean Smith and Vontae Davis. PFF rated Smith the 8th best CB and Davis the 14th best CB (using a snap filter of 25%). Neither player is a strong IDP option, but their value to the Dolphins defense is huge.
Despite Greg Toler’s mediocre PFF CB rating of 67, his 2010 statistics were tremendous. He is clearly the one third season DB drafted in the third or fourth rounds to target. Another player to keep tabs on, especially in leagues mandating cornerbacks, is Fletcher. His PFF CB rating of 38 is good, and he’ll be busy playing opposite of Ronald Bartell. If your league awards points for special team yardage, don’t forget about Webb. He was solid returning kicks in his rookie year, so let’s hope the Ravens give him the gig again in 2011.
The percentages state one third season DB drafted after the fourth round will become a fantasy starter. The player to target is Houston DB Nolan. If unrestricted free agent Bernard “Bonecrusher” Pollard opts to sign elsewhere, Nolan will be atop the depth chart. His PFF Safety rating of 69 was poor, but that was due to three lousy games. Nolan statistically made the most of his limited opportunities last year, highlighted by a nice three-game run to end the season..
.
Other articles in the Third Season Production series: Third Season Wide Receiver Production, Third Season Tight End Production, Third Season Defensive Linemen Production, Third Season Linebacker Production
.
Click the links for individual Rookie Production articles, which include positional graphs, five-year Excel reports, and 2011 drafted rookies: Rookie Quarterback Production, Rookie Running Back Production, Rookie Wide Receiver Production, Rookie Tight End Production, Rookie Defensive Linemen Production, Rookie Linebacker Production, Rookie Defensive Back Production, Rookie Production Summary.
.
Get all the latest info directly from the source. Follow my NFL Media, Offensive Players, and Defensive Players feeds at Twitter. Television and beat reporters are becoming accustomed to 2011 technology, and they’re providing NFL and fantasy fans with immediate access to all the breaking news. Become a follower today! Technologically advanced? Add the widget/script source to your website for direct access.
.
© 2025 PFF - all rights reserved.