Week Two of Pro Football Focus Fantasy Round Table answers some great questions heading into your upcoming draft. This week we tackle three points. Can Chris Johnson (PFF Fantasy’s #1 Projected RB) break the NFL single season rushing record? Who are some great #2 or #3 WR options for your team? We all know the elite QBs, but who are some of the underrated QBs? Let’s see what our experts think.
Tony Bosma- Pro Football Focus Staff Writer
There is very little hope for Chris Johnson to break the single season rushing record, no matter how confident he is in himself to get it done. On a woeful 8-8 Titans team in 2009, Johnson rushed for 2,006 yards on 358 attempts, often piling up yards when games didn't matter. I expect the Titans to be a little better than 8-8 this year which means Johnson's stats will be somewhere in between his 2009 stats and 2008 (251 carries, 1,228 yards). The Titans have the toughest schedule in the NFL, including games against four top 10 defenses from 2009 (PIT, DAL, PHI, HOU twice) and the Giants and Dolphins should be close to cracking the top 10 defensively in 2010. There are just too many factors working against Johnson to repeat a 2,000+ yard season.
Colin Davidson- Pro Football Focus Staff Writer
This is a bold goal for the man with the Predator style locks, only three years removed from being a somewhat surprising first round pick out of East Carolina. He is coming off an unbelievable season, but carried the ball over 350 times and is trying to break a record that has stood since the year the first Police Academy movie premiered. To break the current record of 2105 rushing yards, Johnson would have to average over 131 yards per game. Last year, he averaged 127 yards a game last year behind the 12th rated PFF offensive line. Highly rated tackles David Stewart and Michael Roos are back, but 7 time Pro Bowl center Kevin Mawae doesn’t appear to be in the Titans’ plans. What made last year so special was that in addition to all of this top notch offensive line play, Johnson led the NFL in yards after contact (YCo). This loss on the line will decrease his yards before contact, but will also affect his yards after contact as well. In 2009, his largest area for yards after contact was the gap between the center and left guard, and Mawae’s absence will allow more linebackers and defensive tackles to get clean shots on him. Even if Mawae was coming back, there would likely be a drop off in overall production and yards after contact. Do you know who the 2008 leader in yards after contact was? One of the biggest disappointments of 2009, Michael “I’ve got food on the burner” Turner. I still have Chris Johnson as the top rated fantasy running back, but the odds of breaking the single season rushing record seem low.
Mike Suttner-Pro Football Focus Staff Writer
If you do not know, the single season rushing record was set in 1984 by Eric Dickerson with 2105 yards. Chris Johnson had a breakout season in 2009 with 2006 yards rushing and made the statement that he wants Dickerson’s record. Johnson is rated PFF’s #1 fantasy RB, but he will not break Dickerson’s record this year. Here is why he will not get to even 2000 yards in 2010.
#1 Reason– The Titans are tied with the Texans for the toughest schedule in the lead (.547 winning percentage). Their schedule includes 10 games (Jacksonville twice) against PFF’s top 20 rated defenses. Six of the Titan’s games are against PFF’s top 12 teams against the run. I know the Titans have a commitment to the run, but teams like Philadelphia, Miami, Dallas, and Pittsburgh will devise schemes to slow him down. We shall see how he fairs against the schedule.
#2 Reason– CJ needs to average 131.6 YPG just to beat Dickerson by ONE YARD! Johnson averaged an astonishing 125.375 YPG last year, but was held under 100 YPG 4 times last year. If he has a shot to break the record, he cannot have any off games.
#3 Reason– I just don’t think he can hold up to that much pounding and carries. He had a career (including college) high 358 carries and if he comes close to 2105 yds, he will need to increase the workload. These are professional athletes with pride, and every player will try to stop Johnson from breaking the record against them.
Counting only Wide Receivers who are not number one on their team's depth chart, which are the best options in Fantasy?
Tony Bosma– Value is key. Terrell Owens of the Cincinnati Bengals is the definition of value in 2010. He won't cost a high pick and will make big plays sporadically throughout the season. Owens is projected by PFF Fantasy to have 53 catches for 775 yards and 5 touchdowns — big numbers for a No. 2 (or even No. 3 depending on Antonio Bryant's production). Age isn't on his side, but with Chad Ochocinco and Bryant taking the brunt of strong secondary coverage, Owens could end up being the default No. 1 by season's end.
Colin Davidson- The Patriots were 3rd in the league in passing yards per game and while Randy Moss is a legit #1 fantasy option, Brady’s favorite target has proven to be Wes Welker. Welker was thrown at (TA) more than any other receiver in 2009 and also led starters in the percentage of attempts caught at over 80%. Assuming his knee is healthy, he will be a killer this year.
Early Doucet has been learning behind Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin for the past two seasons and is ready to break out. Now that Boldin has moved on to the Ravens, Doucet will be counted on to step up and help Matt Leinart get his career of to a good start. Last year, Doucet averaged 12.6 yards per reception and produced more than half of his total receiving yards after contact. He even averaged 6.9 yards after catch per reception (YAC/rec), which is on par with DeSean Jackson and Greg Jennings. Even with Kurt Warner gone, this offense will continue to throw the ball enough to allow Doucet to put his play making ability on display.
Mike Suttner– I have two different WRs that people may not think of, Julian Edelman and Legedu Naanee.
The Patriots have two great receivers in Moss and Welker, but the Pats struggled last season with their number 3 WR. The Pats thought that Joey Galloway was the answer, but he could not catch the ball. Edelman missed some games due to injury and finished with 37 catches 359 yards and one TD. The former Kent State QB has one more year under his belt as a WR and has the best mentor, Wes Welker. Edelman looked great in the first preseason game with 6 catches (6 targets) for 90 yards and a 40 yard punt return. Welker is fully healed from offseason knee surgery but will most likely give up his return duties to Edelman. PFF ranks Edelman 115 WR overall, look for him to creep up the charts throughout the season.
Legadu Naanee came into the Chargers camp as the starting WR (#2 WR) because PFF #1 overall WR Vincent Jackson still remains unsigned. Naanee had a career year in 2009 with 24 catches (28 targets), 242 yards, 2 TDs, and averaging 10.1 yards per catch. PFF Fantasy projects Naanee to almost double all of his stats, 44 catches, 596 yards, and 4 TDs. The Chargers have many weapons for Phillip Rivers; look for Naanee to reap the benefits.
Who are some of the underrated QBs heading into this season?
Tony Bosma– Alex Smith of the 49ers might as well have a question mark for a number on his jersey. One thing is clear, head coach Mike Singletary believes in him, so he won't be on a short leash in 2010. The 49ers passed up all free agent quarterbacks in favor of Smith, earning him a vote of confidence he has yet to enjoy. With that said, Smith's 60% completion percentage should actually increase in 2010 with speedy WRs Ted Ginn, Jr. and Michael Crabtree drawing defenses deep to open lanes for tight end Vernon Davis. Expect an even better TD-INT ratio because of this, as well. Completions and yards will be the key for Smith's fantasy worth in 2010, as Frank Gore tends to steal a lot of touchdowns once the 49ers get inside the red zone.
Colin Davidson- Jason Campbell. I could understand skepticism with this pick. Campbell has underperformed so far in the NFL and is going to the league's version of the dysfunctional Lohan family, the Oakland Raiders. Keep in mind though, Campbell wasn’t exactly playing with the 1989 49ers the last couple years and he is getting a fresh start with a team that’s fan base isn’t openly criticizing him. The Raiders have some talent and lots of speed on the outside with Louis Murphy, Chaz Schilens and Darrius Heyward-Bey. All three averaged at least 12.5 yards per reception last year, which is above that of Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe and Hines Ward. This is important because Campbell had some of his best success throwing deep in 2009. He averaged 7.1 yards per attempt last season, which was 16th in the league. He had a quarterback rating of 104 for passes over 20 yards outside the numbers on the left. Jason Campbell is not a top ten fantasy quarterback, but could be a steal in the middle rounds.
Mike Suttner– Can I go with Colin took mine? I think Campbell can have a great impact on the Raiders. I look at David Garrard every year and pass him up for someone that ends up putting up worse numbers. Garrard was ranked #9 overall by PFF ahead of Tom Brady, Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb. When you think Jacksonville, everyone thinks of MJD and that is it, but Garrard has been solid year in and year out for the Jags. If you look deep into the numbers, Garrard excels at all the throws, with positive ratings from every direction 10-19 yards and 20+ yards down the field. Garrard can run, too. He broke my heart two years ago against the Steelers scrambling for 32 yards and setting up the game winning field goal, but I am not here to talk about the past. Garrard is projected to be the 15th overall QB by PFF Fantasy ahead of Carson Palmer, Vince Young, Matt Ryan, and Chad Henne. The whole Jags team is under pressure this year, look for Garrard to shine.
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