Nothing is more intimidating to your Head-to-Head opponent than stacking your starting lineup with stud running backs. It’s a comfortable feeling to know your opponent has basically spotted you three touchdowns before games even kick off. When it comes to rookies, no other position generates as much production as the running backs. Draft them early, late, and often. I’ll take a late-round rookie RB prospect any day over extra depth at other positions. Chances are, you’re cutting those other guys/positions anyway in favor of players on the waiver wire during the season, so it makes sense to gamble on high-reward rookie backs.
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Click the link below to view the Excel report:
>>> Rookie RB production <<<
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Percentages for a 16 team league, starting 2 RBs
“Starters” were players ranked in the Top 32 at the end of the season.
“Backups” were players worthy of contributing to your fantasy team in a limited capacity.
“Rosterable” were players worthy of belonging on a fantasy roster.
“Minimal Contribution” were players on waivers who could be useful in case of emergencies (ex: injuries, byes, poor match-up).
“No Contribution” were players who could be found on waivers.
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Rookie Production, 2010: 21 Running Backs
5% chance of drafting a starter (1 player)
– 0% chance of drafting a RB#1 (0 players)
– 5% chance of drafting a RB#2 (1 player)
38% chance of drafting a backup (8 players)
– 24% chance of drafting a RB#3 (5 players)
– 5% chance of drafting a RB#4 (1 players)
– 10% chance of drafting a RB#5 (2 players)
10% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (2 players)
48% chance of no contribution in rookie season (10 players)
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Rookie Production, 2006 – 2010: 141 Running Backs
11% chance of drafting a starter (15 players)
– 6% chance of drafting a RB#1 (8 players)
– 5% chance of drafting a RB#2 (7 players)
28% chance of drafting a backup (40 players)
– 11% chance of drafting a RB#3 (15 players)
– 5% chance of drafting a RB#4 (7 players)
– 13% chance of drafting a RB#5 (18 players)
7% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (10 players)
54% chance of no contribution in rookie season (76 players)
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Running Backs drafted in the first round, 2006 – 2010: 17
53% chance of drafting a starter (9 players)
– 29% chance of drafting a RB#1 (5 players)
– 24% chance of drafting a RB#2 (4 players)
41% chance of drafting a backup (7 players)
– 29% chance of drafting a RB#3 (5 players)
– 6% chance of drafting a RB#4 (1 player)
– 6% chance of drafting a RB#5 (1 player)
0% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (0 players)
6% chance of no contribution in rookie season (1 player)
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Running Backs drafted in the second or third rounds, 2006 – 2010: 23
17% chance of drafting a starter (4 players)
– 13% chance of drafting a RB#1 (3 players)
– 4% chance of drafting a RB#2 (1 player)
48% chance of drafting a backup (11 players)
– 9% chance of drafting a RB#3 (2 players)
– 9% chance of drafting a RB#4 (2 players)
– 30% chance of drafting a RB#5 (7 players)
13% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (3 players)
22% chance of no contribution in rookie season (5 players)
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Running Backs drafted after the third round, 2006 – 2010: 101
2% chance of drafting a starter (2 players)
– 0% chance of drafting a RB#1 (0 players)
– 2% chance of drafting a RB#2 (2 players)
22% chance of drafting a backup (22 players)
– 8% chance of drafting a RB#3 (8 players)
– 4% chance of drafting a RB#4 (4 players)
– 10% chance of drafting a RB#5 (10 players)
7% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (7 players)
69% chance of no contribution in rookie season (70 players)
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Quick hits:
It was a wacky 2010 for rookie running backs. The best players were first round picks and undrafted players.
Don’t be fooled by undrafted RB production. On the surface, it looks like they hit more often than the lower drafted players. However, if undrafted players aren’t good in the summer, they go to the practice squad or get cut in camp. The ones that impress the coaches stick around. The research doesn’t include all the undrafted players who don’t get credited with an NFL season.
Looking at the overall running back list, you end up realizing why getting a respectable health insurance and retirement plan are sticking points in the current labor negotiations. Steve Slaton, Laurence Maroney, Kevin Smith, Mike Bell, Wali Lundy, and Selvin Young are all examples of running backs peaking early in their career whom have been invisible lately. Running back careers are brief, and these guys are great examples of beaten men who deserve compensation.
Rashard Mendenhall was the only first rounder to produce no meaningful stats in his rookie year, and it was due to a Week 4 Ray Lewis hit that ended his season.
Kenny Irons, Ben Tate, and Montario Hardesty were the only second rounders to produce no meaningful stats in their rookie year, and it was due to season-ending preseason injuries.
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Rookie Production, 2010, ProFootballFocus Premium Stats Highlights:
“The goal of our detailed grading process is to gauge how players execute their roles over the course of a game by looking at the performance of each individual on each play.” Click here for more on the grading process.
Running Back ratings use a snap filter of 25% due to the vast quantity of players who participated in minimal game action.
Javid Best DET: 15 GP, 246 carries plus targets (ranked #20), 2 “plus” games, 6 “even” games, 7 “minus” games, 56th rated RB by PFF (second to last for running backs that qualified for the snap filter).
Ryan Mathews SDC: 12 GP, 182 carries plus targets (ranked #32), 2 “plus” games, 7 “even” games, 3 “minus” games, 44th rated RB by PFF.
C.J. Spiller BUF: 14 GP, 101 carries plus targets (ranked #55), 2 “plus” games, 12 “even” games, 0 “minus” games, 26th rated RB by PFF.
There are lots of similarities between the 3 players already mentioned. All three were first round selections. All three were expected, by many, to be the lead ball carrier. All three suffered nagging injuries. All three disappointed their fantasy owners in redraft leagues. It’s hard to argue that Best “disappointed”, considering he was around the 20th best RB at the end of the season. However, after producing five touchdowns in the first two games, he didn’t score for the rest of the season. He also didn’t crack 100 yards rushing all season, and went over 100 rushing-plus-receiving yards once after Week 2. I’d take any of them on my Dynasty team, but these toys aren’t so shiny anymore. All three have competition for touches in 2011 (rookie Mikel Leshoure in Detroit, Mike Tolbert in San Diego, Fred Jackson in Buffalo), which will lower their Average Draft Position. It will only be a round or two less than last season’s draft value, but take what you can get. Each offer solid depth for your fantasy squad with the potential to be good RB#1’s.
LeGarrette Blount TBB: 13 GP, 207 carries plus targets (ranked #29), 4 “plus” game, 8 “even” games, 1 “minus” game, 10th rated RB by PFF.
Keiland Williams WAS, 15 GP, 118 carries plus targets (ranked #50), 1 “plus” game, 12 “even” games, 2 “minus” games, 43rd rated RB by PFF.
Chris Ivory NOS: 12 GP, 138 carries plus targets (ranked #43), 4 “plus” games, 7 “even” games, 1 “minus” game, did not reach 25% snap filter (10th rated RB by PFF without snap filter).
Javarris James IND: 10 GP, 71 carries plus targets (ranked #57), 1 “plus” game, 8 “even” games, 1 “minus” game, did not reach 25% snap filter (59th rated RB by PFF without snap filter).
These four rookies were undrafted, but each ended 2010 with respectable stats. Its obvious Blount has the highest upside in this group. He has no competition for playing time, and the coaches rode him in the second half of the season. Finishing the season as the 10th rated PFF RB is a clear sign that he will again be trusted by Buccaneers’ staff. Williams not only has rookies Roy Helu and Evan Royster to battle, but Ryan Torain and James Davis are also on the roster. It’s a situation to avoid, unless you somehow are able to draft all four. But then that would really eat into your roster space and kill you in other positions. Ivory and James were injury replacements last season, and only belong on rosters in the deepest of leagues..
Running Backs drafted in 2011: 30 (player, team, round drafted)
Mark Ingram NOS (1), Ryan Williams ARI (2), Shane Vereen NEP (2), Mikel Leshoure DET (2), Daniel Thomas MIA (2), Demarco Murray DAL (3), Stevan Ridley NEP (3), Alexander Green GBP (3), Roy Helu WAS (4), Kendall Hunter SFO (4), Delone Carter IND (4), Owen Marecic CLE (4), Taiwan Jones OAK (4), Bilal Powell NYJ (4), Jamie Harper TEN (4), Johnny White BUF (5), Anthony Sherman ARI (5), Jacquizz Rodgers ATL (5), Dion Lewis PHI (5), Charles Clay MIA (6), Evan Royster WAS (6), Jordan Todman SDC (6), Allen Bradford TBB (6), Shaun Chapas DAL (7), Da'Rel Scott NYG (7), Shane Bannon KCC (7), Anthony Allen BAL (7), Baron Batch PIT (7), Stanley Havili PHI (7), Jay Finley CIN (7)
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With only one running back drafted in the first round, the Rosterable percentage will either remain at 94% (17/18) or drop to 89% (16/18). The Saints are currently loaded at running back (Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Chris Ivory, Lynell Hamilton), but there have been whispers of Thomas and/or Bush being removed from the mix. The Saints backfield was destroyed by injuries last season, so they made it a priority to land the top back in the draft. Look for Ingram to be a Rosterable RB, but I don’t foresee him ranking in the Top 32 backs at the end of the season.
The second and third round running backs present a tough group to predict. The percentages lean towards 4-5 running backs becoming Rosterable, which means two or three 2011 rookies won’t make the cut. Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley will join a committee backfield in New England, which hurts both their chances for fantasy success. However, Bill Belichick has proven that tandems can be effective in fantasyland, ala tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. But if players have to be removed from projected Rosterable status, I’d take Ridley out. The other player I’d eliminate is Demarco Murray. The Cowboys already own two running backs similar to his skill-set in Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, and I think Choice will get one more look from Cowboys’ management. Ryan Williams, Mikel Leshoure, Daniel Thomas, and Alex Green will all be involved in running back playing time battles when camp opens, but these four should be productive enough to land on your roster. If I were to remove one, it would be Green, who is stuck behind Ryan Grant and James Starks.
The percentages state approximately five running backs drafted after the third round will become Rosterable. I featured his picture for this article, so it’s clear I am a big fan of Delone Carter. Even if Joseph Addai returns to Indy, I think there will be enough opportunities for Carter to make a fantasy impact. Donald Brown has been a disappointment, making Carter's ascension to the lead back role easier. Peyton Manning will love his pass protection skills, and he’s a powerful inside runner to ride late in games. If Chris Johnson refuses to report to Titans’ camp, Jamie Harper is going to skyrocket up the draft boards. If you’re a Johnson owner, do yourself a favor and reach a few rounds early for Harper. That late in the draft, the handcuff protection is well worth drafting over some projected WR#4. Jacquizz Rodgers sits behind an aging Michael Turner in the high-powered Falcons’ offense. Reading his scouting reports, he reminds me of Ray Rice. Draft Rodgers, whether you are a Turner owner or not. One last player to highlight is Mike Shanahan’s new toy Roy Helu. He’s been described as a punishing one-cut runner who is perfect for the ‘Skins running game. As previously mentioned, the ‘Skins running back depth is four-deep and you’re taking a risk spending draft picks on any of the backs. However, Helu is the type of back that can be a huge home run pick if you scoop him up late in your draft.
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Other articles in the Rookie Production series:
Rookie Wide Receiver Production
Rookie Defensive Linemen Production
Rookie Defensive Back Production
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