Fantasy: Rookie Reflection - Torrey Smith

Making the switch from IDP to Dynasty, my new boss Bryan Fontaine recommended that my first piece be a look at a prospect that performed better than I expected in his rookie year. Unfortunately (or fortunately?), there were not many offensive players who fit that bill. For starters, there were a ton of rookies injured or that weren't, well, “starters”.  I am also a very conservative grader and the only wide receivers that I was very high on were A.J. Green and Julio Jones – though that doesn’t make me a unique snowflake. Still, some hyped Torrey Smith as a first round pick and I wasn't ready to do that. So, what did I think about the Baltimore Ravens wideout in his rookie year and where should we go from there?

Torrey Smith was a player out of Maryland who I liked (how can you not like his speed?), but did not love as a naturally gifted pass catcher. He is a burner who runs a nice go-route and takes the top off the defense much like a DeSean Jackson or a Mike Wallace can. Thus, his fantasy numbers may never match his utility. While at Maryland though, Smith had a tendency to let the ball get into his body too often and didn't show a great ability to extend his arms to catch the ball. It is a minor case of alligator-arms and I am not sure how treatable it is.

Still, it is tough to argue that Smith wasn't productive in his rookie season:

However, to get a scope of Torrey Smith, you need to look beyond the fantasy production.

Smith ranked 80th for WRs with a 55.6% catch rate – 50 catches on 90 targets. That is not great until you realize that many of his targets are low percentage shots downfield. After all, an absurd 41 of his 90 targets were on passes 20+ yards. If that is not strong evidence that he specializes in the nine route then I am not sure what is.

So where do we go from here? Can we expect Torrey Smith to take the next step towards NFL fantasy football stardom?

At this point, Smith is just so much of a one-trick pony. He specializes in catching the defense napping or off-guard and getting behind the last defender. One of the primary statistics that emphasizes this is how he responded the week after his two best games:

Week 3 (St. Louis): 8 targets 5 catches 152 yards 3 touchdowns (+2.3 PFF rating). The following week (NY Jets): 4 targets 1 catch 1 yard (and no, Revis was not the only one covering him)

Week 11 (Cincinnati): 7 targets 6 catches 165 yards 1 TD (+2.1 PFF rating). The following week (San Francisco): 3 targets 2 catches 23 yards

This tells me that either A) Torrey Smith partied a little too hard after those big games or B) defenses made it a primary goal to limit his production after those two big games (which actually accounted for 37.7% of his receiving yards and half of his touchdowns on the season). Option B seems more likely and versus teams like the Jets and 49ers, which know defense, that is not surprising.

Overall, I am a bit skeptical, but most importantly the opportunity will be there in 2012. He played 909 offensive snaps (20th most for all wide receivers) even though he started the season as a part-timer with a 39% snap count in the first two games. On top of that, Lee Evans really underperformed in 2011 and it is unexpected that he returns unless he takes a large pay-cut. The chance for Torrey Smith to contribute in 2012 will depend on how hard he works at developing his route tree and his chemistry with QB Joe Flacco. Unlike most rookies who will show a linear improvement after their rookie season, Torrey Smith should have similar numbers to those that he had in 2011 – possibly worse if he becomes a bigger focal point for defensive game planning.

Agree/disagree? Follow me on Twitter @MDaneshgar.