The Carolina Panthers have acquired TE Greg Olsen from the Chicago Bears in exchange for a 3rd round pick in 2012. This transaction had become somewhat inevitable with Mike Martz in charge of the Bears offense. Conversely, the Panthers hope to feature the TE in their new scheme. Offensive Coordinator Rob Chudzinski was formerly the TEs coach in San Diego and was the OC in Cleveland during Kellen Winslow Jr's breakout season. The Panthers are rumored to have acted quickly on this trade because they want to employ Olsen in similar manner to the way Antonio Gates was used for the Chargers.
The trade should rehabilitate some of Olsen’s value but certainly not all of it. According to PFF metrics, Olsen is one of the NFL’s more overhyped players. The former Bear finished with PFF rankings of 14th, 29th, and 47th among TEs over the last three years. For fantasy purposes, we can write off much of that. Olsen is an absolutely atrocious blocker – no fantasy points lost there. Unfortunately, his grades in the passing game don’t support his reputation either (13th, 14th, 20th).
The surrounding cast in Carolina also threatens to mitigate Olsen’s value. The Panthers re-signed DeAngelo Williams to go with Jonathan Stewart and should be the most run-heavy team in the NFL. Carolina also added Jeremy Shockey in the offseason, and the former Saint actually has better marks in the passing game than Olsen over the same time period (average ranking of 14th since 2008). Many will suggest Olsen will see added looks as a safety valve for Cam Newton, but Mike Clay’s exhaustive comparison of veteran and rookie QB pass distribution emphatically disproves that notion.
Fantasy spin:
Olsen has never reached 650 yards in his career and is a poor bet to suddenly break out in 2011. His PFF pass grades can be partly explained by a relatively low catch rate for a TE and an unimpressive career yards per catch average of 10.2. Expect him to see 80 targets, catch 52 passes, and put up 530 yards with 5 TDs. Don’t pass on the elite tight ends in your draft thinking Olsen can be a low cost TE1. In fact if you draft a low-end TE1 and therefore must roster two at the position, I’d much rather take a flier on the possibility of a 2nd year breakout from Jermaine Gresham or Tony Moeaki when hunting for a TE2.
Olsen’s arrival does have an impact on several other Panthers. Jeremy Shockey’s status as a sleeper or bounceback candidate completely evaporates. Olsen’s acquisition paints a much happier picture for Cam Newton and Steve Smith. Rookie QBs are anathema in re-draft leagues, but with Smith staying and Olsen on board, Newton suddenly becomes a potential early season waiver wire acquisition if he shows an ability to run the Panthers offense.
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