Now that the 2011 NFL Draft has come to an end and we've had enough time to digest it, let us look to see which marriages will be the most productive.
Knowing which rookies will make an immediate fantasy impact can be a huge advantage when the season rolls around. When compiling this all-rookie team, draft position and talent were not the only factors taken into account. Also very important in the selection process is supporting cast and estimated playing time.
Without further ado, I reveal to you the 2011 Preseason IDP All-Rookie Watch List.
DL Nick Fairley, Detroit Lions – Had Nick Fairley gone to any team other than the Lions, he probably would not have made this list. But now that he’ll be teaming up with Ndamukong “House of Spears” Suh, you can expect him to be single-teamed and create as much havoc as possible alongside the 2010 Defensive Rookie of the Year. The incumbent Corey Williams actually graded higher than Suh in PFF pass rusher rating (+9.1 versus +7.1) but no doubt that was due to Ndamukong receiving a fair share of double-teams. What makes Fairley special is that when he gets to the ball-carrier, he goes for the kill. Expect quite a few forced fumbles combined with a nice amount of tackles for a loss and sacks.
DL Marvin Austin, New York Giants – A first round talent slipping into the 2nd round to one of the best defensive lines in football means bad news for NFC East quarterbacks. With Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, and (potential free agent) Mathias Kiwanuka around him, look for Marvin Austin to get in on the havoc. Current Giants DT Barry Cofield (4 sacks, 4 hits, 14 pressures) is expected to be hit free agency, so don’t be surprised when Marvin Austin slides into his spot and exceeds those numbers by quite a bit.
DL Jabaal Sheard, Cleveland Browns – Sheard may be a 2nd rounder, but with the lack of depth at defensive end in Cleveland’s new 4-3 expect him to get plenty of playing time. Combine that with the fact that Cleveland will have a pair of 340+ pound DT’s (Rookie Phil Taylor and Ahtybah Rubin) in the middle of the line, the active Sheard will have space to roam the outside. Question marks surround the rest of the DE’s in Cleveland with Marcus Benard, Matt Roth, and Jayme Mitchell all slated to be free agents. Jabaal Sheard at the moment is the only sure thing.
DE/LB Aldon Smith, San Francisco 49ers – With Aubrayo Franklin and Justin Smith in front of him, and Patrick Willis beside him, does anybody really expect Aldon Smith to NOT be productive? Justin Smith is arguably the best 3-4 DE in the NFL, so you can expect Aldon Smith to get his share of quarterback pressures. In 2010, nobody aside from the aforementioned Smith had more than 5 sacks on the 49ers defense that ranked 14th in the NFL with 36 QB sacks.
LB Von Miller, Denver Broncos – Let’s be honest, the Broncos drafting Von Miller to play the SAM linebacker position may not be the wisest move for the integrity of the defense. Playing a hybrid linebacker/defensive end position at Texas A&M, his role as an outside linebacker in John Fox’s 4-3 defense will be different from just pinning his ears back and speed-rushing to the quarterback like he was used to. But while Von Miller may become a liability in run defense, there’s no denying that he’s a gifted pass rusher. With the move to linebacker, Miller will at least be able to rack up more solo tackles, assists, and interceptions than he would in a base 3-4 defense, thus improving his stock in the linebacker heavy IDP rankings. Plus, in blitzing situations Miller will mostly be getting blocked by running backs instead of 300 pound O-linemen. In other words, expect double digit sacks.
LB Mason Foster, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Foster was one of my favorite linebackers heading into the draft because of his toughness and position flexibility. Not only is Foster a tackling machine, but he can play all 3 linebacker positions and even showed a rare ability to get to the quarterback for a 4-3 linebacker (6.5 sacks his senior year). If Barrett Ruud leaves Tampa in free agency, Mason Foster should slide in nicely to the MLB spot in the Tampa 2. If not, Foster will take over at one of the starting OLB spots. Expect steady production.
LB Nate Irving, Denver Broncos – It surprised some when the North Carolina State middle linebacker was taken by the Broncos in the 3rd round, but not me. While under the radar by some, Irving was actually ranked as a 1st rounder by Bill Parcells in his ESPN NFL Draft special. Irving should step in immediately (or else Denver would not have taken him so early) and alongside D.J. Williams and Von Miller should form quite a formidable trio. Unfortunate for them, Denver has no DL. Fortunate for us, this means that they’ll be on the field more often to rack up those juicy stats.
DB Patrick Peterson, Arizona Cardinals – This is a pretty easy pick but it’s not entirely because he was drafted in the top 5. It’s also partially due to the man who will be playing opposite him, Dominique Rogers-Cromartie. Generally with a talented cornerback, offenses will just avoid them by throwing the other way. Fortunate for PP, that “other way” means towards him. With ball skills like a wide receiver, you can expect Patrick Peterson to pick up his share of interceptions and don’t be surprised if he takes one or two the distance.
DB Prince Amukamara, New York Giants – Prince Amukamara really shouldn’t have fallen to the Giants. Fortunate for them, he did. A talented cornerback combined with the best pass rushers in the league (46 sacks in 2010) is often a deadly combination. Expect a fair share of floaters, back-footed throws, throws into double coverage, and inaccurate throws on the run to come Prince’s way due to the havoc caused by the Giant defensive line. As poorly as the Giants corners played in coverage last year (Corey Webster, Aaron Ross, and Terrell Thomas all scored worse than -4.1 on the year in pass coverage rating) Prince will certainly get a warm welcome in the Big Apple.
DB Jimmy Smith, Baltimore Ravens – The reason that Jimmy Smith fell had nothing to do with his on the field production, it was because of the off-the-field extracurriculars. With a man as scary as Ray Lewis watching over him, I wouldn’t bet on Jimmy misbehaving. A stud in coverage situations (only allowed 11 catches in man-to-man coverage his Junior and Senior years), NFL teams will have no choice but to test the rookie. Current Ravens Josh Wilson (+13.0) and Chris Carr (+4.2) are the number 2 and 4 ranked free agent cornerbacks, so Smith should get his fair share of playing time.
DB Jaiquawn Jarrett, Philadelphia Eagles – Andy Reid knows defensive backs. If you haven’t figured that out by now, you should reconsider. Lito Sheppard, Brian Dawkins, Michael Lewis, Asante Samuel, Sheldon Brown, and Quintin Mikell just to name a few. He even got solid production from 2nd rounder Nate Allen (before he got injured) and 7th rounder Kurt Coleman. So if he pulls the trigger on Jaiquawn Jarrett in the 2nd round, saying that he may amount to something would be a very educated assumption. The aforementioned Quintin Mikell was ranked as Pro Football Focus’s number 1 safety of the 2010 season (+17.6), so Jaiquawn will most likely have some heavy shoes to fill.
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