Fantasy: Predicting Future Quarterback Fantasy Success...or Not

In an effort to prepare for the 2011 football season (my fingers are crossed) I have been working to create a system to project future fantasy performances. So far this off season, I have looked at running backs and the qualities that lead to current and future success and broken down some of the factors that good fantasy quarterbacks possess.

Today, we’ll take a look at indicators for future quarterback success. Two weeks ago, I took a look at quarterbacks and their rushing production and found that generally speaking, individual quarterbacks produce about the same amount of fantasy points from rushing on a year-to-year basis, and as a result, rushing statistics will not be included in this study.

I’ve taken data from the last three seasons and found the difference in total fantasy points from passing from year-to-year. Next, I ran correlations between several different variables from the previous season (PFF Pass Rating, QB Rating, Yards/Attempt, Completion Percentage, Yards, Interceptions, and Fantasy Points from passing) to see if there was any statistic that would predict a change in a quarterback’s fantasy performance.

The results were uninspiring. Check out the chart below (note: each of the first variables is from the previous season and total fantasy points is for the next season)

Ignore the negative signs. The absolute value of the correlation coefficients are low enough to tell us that there is no correlation between a previous seasons’ statistics and future fantasy success (and by the way, how crazy would it be if meaning a quarterback was good in one season meant he would be bad in the next!)

Basically, over the last three years there was no way to predict a change in a quarterback’s fantasy production, positive or negative. Take Matt Ryan for example. As a rookie, Ryan threw for 3,442 yards, 16 touchdowns, 11 interceptions while completing 61% of his passes for an elite 7.9 yards/attempt, all for a grand total of 179.68 fantasy points from passing. Ryan’s stat line was backed by an impressive 41.5 PFF pass rating. Coming off such a strong rookie season, Ryan was a hot name among fantasy quarterbacks going into 2010 drafts. Certainly he would improve upon his 2009 numbers, attempt more passes and become a top-notch fantasy quarterback. Except for that he didn’t. Ryan actually scored fewer fantasy points from passing in 2010 and threw just 17 more passes than in the previous season. Then in 2010, Ryan finished sixth among quarterbacks in fantasy points from passing. Who would’ve thought?

One not enough? Fine, let’s try another one: Josh Freeman. Freeman was awful in 2009 in his games as a starter, completing less than 50% of his pass attempts (48.03%) for 10 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. No one drafted Freeman. Why would anyone want to draft Freeman? He was raw coming out of Kansas State and it showed on the field. The only thing Freeman did well was run, but not at an elite level that would justify a selection. I mean really, who drafted Josh Freeman last year? All he did in 2010 was finish 10^th among quarterbacks in fantasy points from passing, and seventh among quarterbacks in standard scoring leagues.

In both cases, there were no statistical indicators that either quarterback would fall or rise in such a significant way. The same can be said of Brett Favre from 2009-2010. Yeah, I know Favre was bound to regress after his phenomenal 2009 season, but he wasn’t even ownable after a few weeks in 2010.

What should we take away from all of this? There are two strategies you can employ, depending on the type of person you are:

1. If  you’re risk-averse, you should choose at least one quarterback that has a track record (Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and even Eli Manning or Joe Flacco) and let the other owners in your league gamble on Josh Freeman, who many are projecting as a top-flight quarterback in 2011, or even Mike Vick, who never showed the type of passing ability he did in 2010 at any point in his career (don’t get me wrong, I think Vick will be a valuable fantasy quarterback in 2011, I’m just not ready to spend a second round pick or $40 on him).
2. If you’re a risk taker, however, you know that quarterback is the deepest position in fantasy football and you can find a starter without spending a high pick or major auction dollars, just don’t reach for someone you think has huge upside, because as we just saw, there’s really no way to tell.