One major factor that is often overlooked when examining breakout running backs from past seasons is the good luck they had to see in order to find significant playing time. Two years ago, Jamaal Charles was firmly entrenched behind Larry Johnson until the latter ran into trouble off the field, allowing Charles to play into a feature back role and fantasy owner’s hearts. Before last season, Jerome Harrison was the running back in Cleveland with all the hype after a strong finish to his 2009 season. It wasn’t until a thigh injury rendered him inactive for week three of 2010 that Peyton Hillis really burst onto the scene.
Opportunity is the number one factor for determining fantasy success, and it’s not even really close. Below are some running backs that are currently not atop their team’s respective depth charts, but the guy/guys ahead of them have suffered injuries in the past (I know that past injury doesn’t indicate a higher risk of future injury,but there are players who may have a genetic make-up that make them pre-disposed to suffering injuries) or showed signs of decline last season. The list will certainly change as training camps open and pre-season games are played, but right now these players could be fantasy diamonds in the rough.
Ryan Williams – Arizona Cardinals
Williams is projected to be the second halfback on the Cardinals’ depth chart when the 2011 season begins, likely splitting carries with former first round pick Beanie Wells. At this point it’s no secret that Wells was ineffective in 2010 and there has been gossip that he’s fallen out of favor with head coach Ken Whisenhunt and his staff. Furthermore, the third-year back has a long history of injuries to his lower half, and may very well be made of glass – very thin, fragile glass. Williams is an injury or benching away from being the primary ball carrier on a potentially explosive offense, making him a candidate to be a fantasy breakout player.
Bernard Scott – Cincinnati Bengals
The argument for Scott being a fantasy surprise in 2011 is the same as it was in 2010 – he’s the back-up to Cedric Benson. Benson had his career revived with the Bengals in 2009, rushing for over 1,200 yards and six touchdowns, but his YPC dropped from 4.2 in 2009 to 3.5 in 2010. Benson’s game log paints an even bleaker picture as there were seven games in which he failed to average 3.0 YPC in 2010. Throw in the fact that 2011 will be Benson’s age 28 season and there’s more reason to believe he may be losing his grip on the starter role, or at least 75% of the Bengals’ carries. Scott is an elusive runner who shows good strength and athleticism, as evidenced by his 4.6 YPC on 135 carries. His ability combined with Benson’s decline make Scott an attractive break-out prospect.
James Starks – Green Bay Packers
Fantasy owners are already acquainted with Starks after a strong rookie season and playoff run in which he was the primary ball carrier for the Superbowl champions. Starks showed flashes of his talent (123 rushing yards against Philadelphia) in his limited playing time in 2010 and was a good receiver at the University of Buffalo, although he was not used on third downs as Brandon Jackson occupied that role for the Packers. Ryan Grant will be returning to the Packers in 2011 after an ankle injury cut his 2010 season short and in all likelihood will be the first back on the depth chart when training camp opens. Despite his success in three years with Green Bay, Grant is coming off of a severe injury, which makes him a candidate for decline in 2011. If that is the case, Starks has the talent to thrive in the high powered Green Bay offense.
Delone Carter – Indianapolis Colts
Carter is a big, bruising back out of Syracuse University, where he was a four-year contributor for the Orangemen (2,906 rushing yards is fourth all-time in Syracuse history), earned second-team All-Big East honors as a senior and was named the MVP of the East-West Shrine Game in 2010. Carter has the size to be an every down runner in the NFL (5-9, 215 pounds) and possesses enough speed and agility to break big plays. Incumbent starter Joseph Addai is coming off a season in which he was hampered with injuries, is entering his age-28 season and is an unrestricted free agent. Even assuming Addai returns to Indianapolis, his injury history and age make it a likely proposition that Carter sees significant playing time as a rookie, which may be all he needs to seize the starting job and finish 2011 as a top-25 running back.
Roy Helu – Washington Redskins
Ryan Torain was impressive when he was on the field for Washington in 2010, posting a 4.5 YPC mark and gained 536 of his 744 yards after contact. The key phrase in the preceding sentence, however, was “on the field”. Torain came into the league as a rookie (he was drafted in the fifth round after missing half his senior season at Arizona State with an ankle injury) in 2008, but was injured during training camp and missed the first seven weeks of the NFL season. In his first career start (week 9, 2008) Torain averaged 5.67 YPC and scored his first NFL touchdown, but also tore his ACL and was out for the rest of the season, then was released in 2009 after suffering a PCL sprain during training camp. Torain re-emerged in Washington this past season, but again had to miss time due to injury, this time of his hamstring. Torain himself is a candidate to be a breakout fantasy player in 2011, but I’m not holding my breath that he’ll stay healthy. Meanwhile, the Redskins moved up in April’s draft to select Roy Helu of Nebraska, a speedy back with the ability to run through tackles. Head coach Mike Shanahan has even gone so far as to compare Helu to a younger Clinton Portis, suggesting he has the type of ability to average six yards per carry in the NFL.
Of the guys listed above, I'm most interested in Carter. I'm not a scout, and I won't pretend to be, but the reports I've read on him are very intriguing and indicate he could be in line to handle 15+ carries a game and goal line work. Plus, Indianapolis has a gaping hole behind Addai at the running back position and that's not a bad offense to be a running back in. Carter is currently being drafted in the 11th round of Draftmaster drafts, which is plenty good value.
With the exceptions of James Starks and Ryan Williams (they are already projected to be significant parts of their respective backfields), I wouldn’t draft any of the above players until the ninth or tenth rounds of fantasy drafts. After that, however, they’re certainly more valuable than a defense, second TE or second QB (if you have drafted one of the top-6 quarterbacks) and present the upside that could be the difference in having an average squad, or being a fantasy juggernaut. It might just take a little luck.
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