Just 4 draft picks were used on running backs and wide receivers on Thursday evening, but each pick made a big impact on the selecting team’s offense. Here’s a breakdown of each unit’s new look:
New Orleans Saints Running Backs
The somewhat surprising selection of Mark Ingram has thrown a large, adjustable wrench into the Saints running back situation. A few months ago, it looked like we’d be staring at a relatively easy to project Chris Ivory-Reggie Bush duo. On March 3, that all changed when the Saints locked up oft-injured Pierre Thomas for 4 more years. Again, it wasn’t very hard to see the plan of attack: Thomas doing most of the damage on the ground plus a handful of targets, Bush would handle most of the 3rd down targets and maybe a carry or three. Ivory would be lucky to see a single target, but would chip in with 6-10 carries/week. That all changed with the selection of Ingram, who should immediately be considered the team’s top back. In fact, it’s very unlikely that the Saints head into 2011 with all 4 of the backs mentioned. Speculation is already spreading that Reggie Bush is on the way out.
Fantasy Outlook: Assuming Bush is no longer in the Saints plans, they are likely to feature Ingram right off the bat. Expect to see him handle near 13 carries and 3 targets per game with now RB #1B Thomas seeing close to 8 carries and 5 targets. Meanwhile, Ivory has value only as a handcuff and should be expected to handle only 2-3 carries a week. Run the math and you have Pierre Thomas ranked as the #25 PPR back, with Mark Ingram just behind at #30. Both should be considered high-end Flex options.
Cincinnati Bengals Wide Receivers
Terrell Owens is already gone. Is Chad Ochocinco next? The Bengals selection of A.J. Green with the 4th overall pick likely means yes. Assuming that’s the case, Jerome Simpson would do what he did very well late in 2010 and take over for Owens in the starting lineup. Similarly, Green will step right into the lineup in place of Ochocinco. Worried that the Bengals might be wary of throwing a rookie directly into the fire? Don’t be. In 2010, fellow rookies Jordan Shipley (slot WR) and Jermaine Gresham (TE) combined for 27% of the team’s targets.
Fantasy Outlook: Although Green has the serious potential, don’t overlook Simpson, who was a round 2 selection back in 2008 and is finally getting a chance to play regularly. Considering that Owens and Ochocinco combined for a whopping 45% of the team’s targets (even while combining to miss 4 games) last year, it should be expected that Green and Simpson will be heavily relied on in 2011. Look for them to each see near 7 targets per game, with Shipley and Gresham each handling about 5. The reason the wide receivers see so many looks in this offense is because it is unreliant on the running back in the pass game. Cedric Benson, Bernard Scott, and Brian Leonard should combine for no more than 4-5 targets/game. Simpson, ranked 22nd, comes in as our top PPR WR on the squad. Green sits 35th and Shipley is 62nd. Target both Simpson and Green as WR3s, but the slight edge goes to the experienced Simpson.
Atlanta Falcons Wide Receivers
The Falcons gave up a ton of draft picks in order to acquire Julio Jones and they’ve already said he is expected to be an immediate impact player. This bodes well for the Falcons offense, but it does not bode well for current #2 WR Michael Jenkins. The underrated Jenkins is going to be quite expensive in 2011, which could lead to him being cut loose, but for now, it looks like he might stick around. If he does, it’s likely that he’ll work as a the #3/slot receiver, which would be interesting considering that just 8% of his 629 snaps in 2010 came while lined up in the slot. Meanwhile, 2010 slot man Harry Douglas would be the odd man out. Kerry Meier, who was selected in the 2010 rookie draft, but missed the entire season with an injury, is also in the mix.
Fantasy Outlook: It’s unlikely that Roddy White will benefit from this draft pick, but he shouldn’t suffer much. Jones will take some time to get into the mix and Matt Ryan will continue to look White’s way near 9 times a game. Jones, meanwhile, should expect to see close to 5 looks/game, which is just behind the 6/game TE Tony Gonzalez will handle. Assuming Jenkins stays put, he’ll see a serious drop in snaps, which will allow him only 2-3 targets/week. Similar to the Bengals, the Falcons don’t rely on the running backs in the passing game very often. Michael Turner and Jason Snelling will combine for no more than 4 targets/game. Still an elite fantasy option, Roddy White ranks out at PPR WR #3. Jones is worth bench consideration at WR #59 and Jenkins should not be drafted (WR #89).
Kansas City Chiefs Wide Receivers
Finally, we have the Chiefs, who raised a lot of eyebrows by selecting Jonathan Baldwin late in round 1. Kansas City made the move in order to combat the decline and impending departure of Chris Chambers, a lack of confidence in Verran Tucker, and the apparent conversion of Dexter McCluster from Wide Receiver to Running Back. Baldwin should help take pressure off Dwayne Bowe and has a good shot to start immediately thanks to the question marks from the WR #2 slot on down. Tucker, Chambers, and McCluster combined for 23% of the team’s targets in 2010, which is 5% less than what Bowe handled on his own.
Fantasy Outlook: After seeing 28% of the team’s targets and scoring on just higher than 20% of his receptions in 2010, Bowe was due for a regression-fueled drop in both categories in 2011. The presence of Baldwin will only strengthen that regression. Look for Bowe to still see near 7 targets per game, with Baldwin handling 4. TE Tony Moeaki will still see plenty of work and should be in for 4-5 looks each week. Don’t forget about slot man Jerheme Urban either, who missed all of 2010 with an injury, as he should be in for about 3 looks/game. The Chiefs are both run heavy and use the running back in the pass game (especially now that McCluster is changing titles), which certainly takes away from the wide receivers upside. Watch for Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, and McCluster to total near 23% of the targets. I mentioned Bowe’s expected drop-off and it shows up in the rankings (PPR WR #15). Baldwin, the only other semi-fantasy relevant WR in KC ranks out 83rd.
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