This is the second half of round one, a continuation from my mock draft 4.0. With a bunch of big names off the board, let's take a look at how picks 17-32 could turn out.
17) New England Patriots – Mike Pouncey, OL, Florida. Bill Belichick is known for taking a lot of Florida players, and Pouncey is a hot prospect in an area of need for the Patriots. New England's pass block rating was -7.4. The Patriots pass the ball about 54% of the time and with better pass protection comes better numbers from the passing game. Brady's completion percentage dropped to 53% last season under pressure.
18) San Diego Chargers – Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue. The Chargers had a mediocre defense last season. While Shaun Phillips, their most used pass rusher (418 rushes) registered 11 sacks last season; he was the only LB in San Diego to rush the quarterback over 200 times. I can see Kerrigan playing LB in a 3-4 scheme and forcing pressure on opposing quarterbacks, creating turnovers. San Diego has been a great fantasy defense in the past and a pick this like could get them back to the top in a hurry.
19) New York Giants – Anthony Castonzo, OL, Boston College. The Giants need offensive line help. Their -28.6 run block rating was in the bottom half of the league. Ahmad Bradshaw gained 1,239 yards on the ground and forced 42 missed tackles. With better blocking up front, Bradshaw will be able to explode through the line more often and will become an even more dangerous player on the ground.
20) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Gabe Carimi, OL, Wisconsin. The Buccaneers have a real talent in Josh Freeman despite the fact he isn't properly appreciated. In fact, Freeman led a bunch of fantasy teams to a championship in 2010 thanks to his five-touchdown performance in week 16. The point is, the Buccaneers need to keep Freeman healthy. Their -61.6 pass block rating was 30th in the league, and their run blocking can't get much worse either (-74.6, 29th in the league). The Bucaneers are loaded with young studs (Freeman, Mike Williams, LeGarrette Blount), and solidifying their big men up front will only help.
21) Kansas City Chiefs – Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa. The Chiefs were a pretty good scoring defense (326 PA) and had the sixth best pass rush in the league with a 60.6 rating. A big man for DE what the Chiefs need in their 3-4 defense, as the vast majority of their QB pressures came from linebackers. In fact, Wallace Gilberry was the only DE on the roster with a positive pass rush rating (16.4). Clayborn has a knack for forcing fumbles and would be a great addition to a rapidly improving defense.
22) Indianapolis Colts – Nate Solder, OL, Colorado. Despite ideas circulating that the Colts want to find the answer for life after Manning, Indianapolis wants to win now and needs better protection for their current quarterback. Their pass block unit graded out at -15.3 and their run blocking graded out at -51.8. Jeff Saturday (10.4) and Kyle DeVan (4.4) both have positive pass block ratings. Beyond those two, you have to go through every other offensive player to reach the rest of their O-line. The remaining five offensive linemen on their roster had the five worst pass block ratings on the team.
23) Philadelphia Eagles – Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado. I believe if any one of the above O-linemen drop here, the Eagles will take them. With their favorite options off the board, they go with Jimmy Smith. Philadelphia's -33 pass coverage rating was 28th in the league. The Eagles are ranked in the top ten in both run defense and pass rush, so clearly pass coverage is their weakest area. Asante Samuel is a monster when healthy and adding a talent like Smith opposite him will really shape up their defense.
24) New Orleans Saints – Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA. In 2010, the Saints had the second worst pass rush in the league with a -30.5 rating. That was up from 2009, where they ranked last with -44.6. Roman Harper (a defensive back) was their team leader with just nine QB hits. Only one LB had a positive pass rush rating. That was Danny Clark, who was in on 344 snaps – only 35 of which were dedicated to rushing. Ayers fills an area of need and would be a great value at #24. Adding more pressure to the quarterback leads to more turnovers, something the Saints thrive on.
25) Seattle Seahawks – Jake Locker, QB, Washington. Charlie Whitehurst is not the answer for the future and Matt Hasselbeck isn't getting any younger. It's possible that the Seahawks go for Ryan Mallett, but I think they go for the guy who really belongs in Seattle. Locker was being touted as the can't-miss #1 pick for last year's draft, but he chose to return to school for his senior year. I'm not confident this pick would have a huge fantasy impact, other than marginally increasing the value of Marshawn Lynch.
26) Baltimore Ravens – Derrick Sherrod, OL, Mississippi State. The Ravens had a –15.9 pass block rating and -23.7 run block rating in 2010, both middle-of-the-pack numbers. For as known as he is, LT Michael Oher had a pretty rough season in 2010, finishing with a -18.9 overall rating. I think it's possible the Ravens move Oher somewhere else on the line in 2011 and try Sherrod out at LT. Oher played 13 games at RT in 2009 and finished those games with an overall rating of 18.8.
27) Atlanta Falcons – Cam Heyward, DL, Ohio State. The Falcons had a -7.6 run defense rating in 2010, and didn't have one dominant player against the run. Heyward specializes against the run and would become teammates with an already talented group of linemen. The Falcons don't have a lot of needs, but adding more depth to their D-line and adding a run-stuffer is one of them. Their defense allowed only six touchdowns to running backs all last season, including a streak of nine games where they didn't allow a RB to score against them once.
28 ) New England Patriots – Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple. Wilkerson is a versatile player, something Belichick loves. The Patriots pride themselves on their schemes, so they don't necessarily go for the most athletic player available. Wilkerson adds depth to a Patriots line that truly needed it last season. For all the real football troubles New England's defense had, they were the second highest scoring defense in fantasy last season.
29) Chicago Bears – Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland. I would consider this pick a slight reach, but the Bears really need WR help. While their main guys (Hester, Knox, Bennett) are capable, they lack a true threat. Jay Cutler has a massive arm, and the Bears would be doing their franchise and Cutler fantasy owners a dishonor by not surrounding him with talent.
30) New York Jets – Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois. Fantasy's fifth best defense last season, the Jets vaunted unit can use help on their defensive line. The Jets had a -27.7 pass rush rating last season, 30th in the league. Considering how feared their defense is, that's not very impressive. Regardless of whom the Jets draft here, their defense will remain one of the best – both in fantasy and reality.
31) Pittsburgh Steelers – Danny Watkins, OL, Baylor. All you had to do was watch one Steelers game last season to know they needed help on their offensive line. A -62.3 pass block rating was good for 31st in the league and their -78.7 run block rating was 30th. The Steelers offense is loaded with fantasy talents, and adding more protection for their quarterback would only up the value of everyone.
32) Green Bay Packers – Phil Taylor, DL, Baylor. How to improve the Super Bowl Champions? For starters, their run defense rating was only 4.5, 25th in the league. However, similar to the Jets and Patriots, the Packers were a top-5 fantasy defense last season. Adding a player in an area of need will help keep the Packers that high again in 2011.
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