There will be eleven defensive coordinators in the NFL come 2011 in their first year with their respective teams:
Chuck Pagano (Baltimore), Dick Jauron (Cleveland), Wade Phillips (Houston), Jerry Gray (Tennessee), Dennis Allen (Denver), Chuck Bresnahan (Oakland), Greg Manusky (San Diego), Rob Ryan (Dallas), Juan Castillo (Philadelphia), Sean McDermott (Carolina), and Vic Fangio (San Francisco).
Of those 11, only three of them will be implementing a front seven alignment change: Dick Jauron with the Cleveland Browns, Dennis Allen and the Denver Broncos, and Wade Phillips for the Houston Texans.
In terms of IDP Fantasy impact, this could mean either good or bad news for your favorite returning defensive players. Let us take a closer look at what we should expect to from returning players going through a position switch. As a result, this article will focus on the front seven.
Cleveland Browns
2010 Defensive Coordinator: Rob Ryan (3-4)
2011 Defensive Coordinator: Dick Jauron (4-3)
Breakdown: Out goes Head Coach Eric Mangini and DC Rob Ryan’s 3-4 alignment. In comes Head Coach Pat Shurmur and along with him arrives Dick Jauron’s base 4-3 defense. President Mike Holmgren (Seattle) and G.M. Tom Heckert (Philadelphia) have experience building successful defenses with personnel suited for the 4-3, but the transition to it from a 3-4 is new to them. Expect Jauron to blitz much less often than his predecessor Rob Ryan, and to instead generate a pass rush via his front four as he did in his time at Buffalo and Chicago.
Although there has been limited word from the team, the starters at linebacker are expected to be WLB D’Qwell Jackson, MLB Chris Gocong, and SLB Scott Fujita. While Jackson led the NFL with 154 tackles in 2008, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy since then and it’s unlikely that he can replicate that production at the outside linebacker position. Fujita has experience in the 4-3 defense from his days in New Orleans but he also has been labored by injuries, missing at least five games in each of the last two seasons due to knee issues.
Chris Gocong, on the other hand, has only missed one game the past four years but returns to the 4-3 defense that he struggled adapting to in Philadelphia. As an Eagle in 2009, Gocong played mostly the 4-3 SAM position and in 453 snaps (half as many as 2010) graded out at -2.1 overall, scoring negatively in run defense, pass rush, and pass coverage while amassing only 28 tackles. Still, with his breakout season last year (+18.5) and G.M. Tom Heckert’s belief that he can play all three LB positions, Gocong could be due for a breakout fantasy season as the main man in the middle.
It’s also worth pointing out that even though Dick Jauron isn’t a heavy blitzer, Roosevelt Colvin had back-to-back 10.5 sack seasons while playing OLB for Jauron with the Chicago Bears in 2001 and 2002. It’s probably not realistic that Jackson, Gocong, or Fujita can be that strong of pass rushers (none has ever had more than 4 sacks in a season) but it will be worth keeping an eye on if/how Jauron utilizes them in getting to the Quarterback.
As for the defensive line, expect huge roster turnover. Former NT, now DT Ahtyba Rubin’s fantasy impact should be minimal. Dick Jauron looks to be trying to build a wall in the middle of the defense with a pair of 340+ pound defensive tackles in Rubin and incoming rookie Phil Taylor that should mimic the one he had in 2001 with the Chicago Bears. On that team, neither Ted Washington (365 lbs) or Keith Traylor (340 lbs) had more than 26 tackles or 1.5 sacks.
The other veterans that may factor into the DL equation are all potentially free agents with experience in the 4-3. Matt Roth as a DE with the Miami Dolphins, Robaire Smith played 4-3 DT with the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans, and Marcus Benard played as an undersized DE in his college days at Jackson State. Still, none of them should make significant fantasy impact.
Bottom Line: Buyer beware. The group is very volatile. Chris Gocong will have more opportunities to pile onto the stat sheet with the middle being his, but will he play like he did as an Eagle in the 4-3 or has the light turned on? That remains to be seen. Scott Fujita and D’Qwell Jackson, if healthy, could be very solid contributors and are both better suited for the 4-3.
Denver Broncos
2010 Defensive Coordinator: Don Martindale (3-4)
2011 Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Allen (4-3)
Breakdown: The good news for Dennis Allen is that the Broncos defense was terrible last season. Thus, there’s nowhere to go but up for the group that ranked dead last in both scoring defense and yards allowed. Dennis Allen, 38, is the former defensive backs coach of the New Orleans Saints and will be working alongside Head Coach John Fox in reconstructing what is left. Fox is well-known for his work with defensive ends (ask Julius Peppers and Charles Johnson) and Dennis Allen will bring over much of the blitz-heavy, opportunistic scheme that he and Gregg Williams ran in New Orleans.
Now, let’s cover the guys who will be switching positions in the new 4-3. At linebacker, the only veteran likely to keep a starting job is D.J. Williams, with an outside shot of Joe Mays doing so as well. The former Miami Hurricane Williams benefited last season from a poor surrounding cast, racking up 119 tackles and 5.5 sacks at ILB while finishing the season as the 22nd-best fantasy IDP. Still, in 2007 when he was playing WLB in Denver’s 4-3 defense, Williams was equally impressive with 141 tackles. The transition should go very smoothly for him but he may have more tackling competition with a couple of newcomers at LB (rookies Nate Irving and Von Miller). As for Mays, he will have an uphill battle for the starting MIKE position with the aforementioned Irving. The early nod has to go to the recent third round pick, so don’t get your hopes up about Mays making a fantasy impact.
With the front four, the impact IDP players who will change positions are Elvis Dumervil and Robert Ayers. Each will transition from 3-4 outside linebacker to 4-3 defensive end. Naturally, all eyes are on Elvis. Returning from a torn pectoral muscle which sidelined him all season will be tough, but he played end during his days as a Louisville Cardinal and would line up with his hand in the dirt on obvious passing downs under former coach and DC Josh McDaniels/Mike Nolan. The 5'11” Dumervil was probably better suited as a 3-4 OLB, but it’s tough to doubt his size anymore after a 17-sack season in 2009.
Ayers was always out of position playing outside linebacker. The 6'3″ 270-pound former first rounder may be branded as a disappointment so far, but now that he’s back to playing 4-3 end, he should improve from the pitiful 1.5 sacks the past two seasons. Aside from Dumervil and Ayers, no other returning Denver Broncos DL should have much fantasy impact.
Bottom Line: D.J. Williams should see similar numbers to last year without a drastic position change, although the surrounding talent might affect his numbers … after all, you can’t tackle someone who’s already down. Elvis Dumervil’s tackle numbers will be down from 2009 (42 solo, 7 assists) working on the line full-time and he might be overwhelmed in the running game, but you can never underestimate the strip-sack in fantasy. Ayers should be less out of place at DE and could be a late round sleeper.
Houston Texans
2010 Defensive Coordinator: Frank Bush (4-3)
2011 Defensive Coordinator: Wade Phillips (3-4)
Breakdown: Unlike the Browns and Broncos, the Houston Texans aren’t bringing in a new head coach. Frank Bush couldn’t get the job done and Gary Kubiak is an offensive-minded head coach, so, in steps Wade Phillips and his 3-4 defense. While Phillips has his critics about his head coaching ability, there aren’t many people who deny that he knows how to coordinate a 3-4. In fact, as good as the offense is in Houston, even average would get the job done.
Truthfully, the Houston Texans returning personnel was better suited for the 4-3. While the Texans drafted some nice 3-4 pieces, Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Brian Cushing particularly are likely all better off in the 4-3. Though that doesn’t necessarily mean they will struggle, it does mean that their IDP impact could be smaller. Mario Williams, as many already know, will make the transition from All-Pro 4-3 DE to oversized 3-4 OLB. Williams has the athleticism to play the position better than most but the fact that in fantasy he will be a linebacker who doesn’t rely on tackles diminishes his value and puts a pretty big question mark over his head. Still, it’s tough to doubt a guy whose nickname is Super Mario and his 8.5 sacks in 2010 was not all that impressive anyways.
DeMeco Ryans was superb as middle linebacker in the Houston Texans 4-3 defense but returns this year after being sidelined because of a torn Achilles’ tendon. If 100%, Ryans should put forth solid production but his numbers could experience a small dip when compared to 2009 (123 tackles, 11th most in the NFL) because of a better surrounding cast. Brian Cushing experienced a bit of a down 2010 (136th ranked IDP) because of a four-game suspension and because of Ryans’ injury. He has ideal size for 3-4 LB at 260 lbs, so expect a bounce-back year for the former Trojan. On the defensive line, much like many other 3-4 defenses, don’t expect too much fantasy production.
Bottom Line: The Texans’ defense behind Wade Phillips is shaping up to be much improved. But, in IDP fantasy is that always a good thing? A three-and-out is hardly enough time to accumulate defensive stats and the offense of Schaub, Foster, Johnson, and one of the best O-Lines in football could control the game. Plus, if the Texans are leading in games then they’ll be defending against the pass more often than the run – also not good for these three linebackers who will count on tackles to make fantasy impact. If you have Williams, Ryans, or Cushing on your fantasy team, I would probably root against the Texans acquiring Nnamdi Asomugha otherwise they might end up with zero points on the season because opposing offenses are waiving the white flag.
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