IDP Stock Market looks at IDP players that are being overvalued and undervalued based on our advanced NFL statistics. If you’re looking for the sell-high or buy-low IDP candidates for your fantasy roster, this is the article for you.
Buy:
D’Qwell Jackson – LB – Cleveland Browns
An impressive week 1 performance saw D’Qwell Jackson amass 8 solo tackles and 2 sacks on the way to a +2.9 grade. A forgotten tackle machine, Jackson was a LB1 back in 2008 when he last played 16 games, but had season-ending injuries early in both ’09 and ’10. In 2008 as an LB1, Jackson recorded 131 total sacks and 3 sacks, so he has potential to be a top 5 linebacker if he can reproduce that level of performance. Jackson has additional value if he continues to rush the passer so frequently, as he blitzed on 20 snaps (28.99%).
Jason McCourty– CB – Tennessee Titans
Last week I recommended shying away from the 2010 elite Titans defenders, but this week I want to highlight Jason McCourty as a player rising in value. Twin brother to New England’s 7 interception rookie, Devin McCourty, Jason quietly played 505 snaps last year for a +7.5 grade before beating out fellow sophomore Alterraun Verner (and low-end CB1) in the preseason to start at LCB in 2011. Although he only recorded 4 solo tackles, he graded +1.4 in coverage and is a physical player who will be targeted while playing opposite Cortland Finnegan, so should be picked up.
Antonio Garay – DT – San Diego Chargers
Antonio Garay grabbed my attention last year with 6 sacks and a +27.9 grade in just 465 snaps, so I was not surprised to see his name in the box score this week. He was on the field for 27/34 snaps where the Chargers played a NT, blitzing on 9, charting a sack and 2 pressures. He’ll have more chances to rush the passer against less run-heavy offenses that the Vikings, so I expect DT1 numbers from Garay this season.
Hold:
Paul Posluszny – LB – Jacksonville Jaguars
A 4 tackle performance has some fantasy owners panicking that the switch to Jacksonville means Paul Posluszny will not be the LB1 of old, but do not worry. Posluszny was partly the victim of circumstance on Sunday as the Titans only ran the ball 12 times, meaning he dropped into coverage on 34 plays. He did still grade +5.1 for the game, the second highest grade among ILBs, and register 2 pressures on only 6 blitzes, so don’t fall into the trap of benching or trading him.
Sell:
Osi Umenyiora – DE – New York Giants
Umenyiora didn’t even play in week 1 of the NFL season, but the writing is already on the wall for his value as long as he remains in New York. The problem is not just his recovery from offseason knee surgery, or contract issues with the front office, but the production from sophomore Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP notched up 5 tackles, 2 sacks and a forced fumble against the Redskins and now faces a Rams offensive line who will be starting back-up RT Adam Goldberg, who graded -14-1 last season at RG, so will likely pad his stats further. Umenyiora will be hard pressed to cut heavily into Pierre-Paul’s time when he returns, so if you can package him in a trade to get it through, now is the time.
Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_RossMiles
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