This post is number two in a series of articles looking at how you should be evaluating IDP players by position in order to build the most comprehensive draft board and value them compared to the rest of your roster, both offense and defense. Read the first in the series, focusing on cornerbacks, here.
Linebackers are the scoring powerhouses of IDP fantasy football and, without a solid LB corps, your fantasy team just won’t cut it. Of all linebacker positions, you should concentrate on MLBs, especially those who play in a 4-3 defense, as they have the highest tackle numbers each year. Even in leagues that reward sacks heavily, 3-4 OLBS such as DeMarcus Ware or James Harrison will struggle to be as valuable as players like David Harris or DeMeco Ryans. That is not to say you should ignore the OLBs, but you must recognize that they are more boom and bust scorers, reliant on sacks rather than double digit tackles each game. A generalized ranking of linebacker values reads 4-3 MLB > 3-4 ILB > 4-3 Will > 3-4 OLB > 4-3 Sam.
The most important factor when selecting any linebacker for your IDP league should be his tackle numbers. Some leagues will add points for assisted tackles and bonus points for a tackle-for-loss. You need to be aware of these nuisances as they can add value to players that are constantly in the backfield. Playing-making ability (sacks, forced fumbles and interceptions) is an added extra and can generate game-winning scores when your pass-rushing OLB finds the QB several times in a game. Some IDP leagues class players like Brian Orapko as both a DE and a LB. This makes them extremely valuable as they score LB numbers and can play at the typically lower scoring DE position. Of all IDP positions, linebackers are not only the most valuable, but also the deepest. It is advisable to have depth at the LB position as they often get nicked up. You can also exploit more favorable match-ups against run-heavy teams and rack up some high tackle numbers if you have a choice of players. Elite OLBs are comparable to an average corner or backup safety.
Patrick Willis is the ultimate IDP pick and should be the #1 IDPer off the board in every league. He is always on the field making plays (he played 1116 snaps in 2009) and led all MLBs with 66 solo stops according to our game charting. Willis also tops the PFF data for MLBs, with his +23.0 rated play against the run, accruing a mere 4 missed tackles. His 3 INTs last year were more than his positional counterparts, giving him a +9.0 PFF rating in coverage, behind only Jonathan Vilma (+10.9). In PPR leagues, his value is comparable to a mid-level #2 WR or an elite #3 RB (especially due to RBBC backfields). He stands out as superb value among his line-backing peers as well. I’d feel comfortable drafting him in the 6th round and possibly even the 5th. I’d also add that by making a move for Willis in the 5th, it might prompt less-savvy IDP players to start scrambling for defensive players (such as Jared Allen, which would be a reach) and leave much higher scoring offensive starters on the board for your next pick.
My sleeper LB pick for 2010 is Raiders rookie Rolando McClain. The past 4 years has seen rookie MLBs enter the league and achieve immediate success. 2009 saw Rams rookie James Laurinaitis rack up 120 tackles. In 2008, Jared Mayo notched 128 tackles for the Patriots. First year starter Patrick Willis posted 174 tackles in 2007 and in 2006 Houston’s DeMeco Ryans found the ball carrier 155 times. 2005’s premier rookie LB was Paul Posluszny who suffered a season ending injury in week 3, but has posted over 100 tackles each year since.
Of the aforementioned players, three were winners of the Dick Butkus Award (Laurinaitis in 2007, Willis in 2006 and Posluszny in 2005) as the best linebacker in college football. ‘Bama standout McClain was a deserved winner of the award in 2009 and will certainly step into a leadership role in Oakland following the departure of Kirk Morrison via trade to Jacksonville. Morrison, the man McClain will replace, recorded good numbers in 2009. Taking 1015 snaps for a +6.3 rating (+15.1 against the run, 4th best among MLBs), while accumulating 105 solo tackles. These are numbers that are all within reach for McClain. Any worries that opposing QBs will target him in coverage should be countered by Morrison’s own failings, as he finished ’09 with a -7.5 coverage rating, allowing 85.1% of passes to be completed, for a 12.1 YPC average.
In college, McClain acted as a coach on the field for the Crimson Tide, helping less experienced players with schemes and coverage packages. In his 3 years for Alabama, he increased in his tackles numbers, sacks and tackle-for-loss each year. He is noted for his intangibles and looks set to follow up on his college success in the NFL becoming an elite LB. While your league mates are picking up LaMarr Woodley and Clay Matthews, make sure you get McClain.
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