We continue our preview of team’s defensive lines going into free agency with the Kansas City Chiefs. There are a large number of teams in the league who have a package of defensive linemen they want in for run downs, and then rotate some of the players out for pass situations. The Chiefs are unique in that they rotate their entire defensive line out in their nickel package.
This has worked well for Kansas City, as all of the linemen in the base defense had positive run defense ratings, and all of the linemen in the nickel defense had positive pass rush ratings. Because everyone shares snaps it’s hard for anyone to stand out in the fantasy world, but there are two men to keep an eye on for the offseason. They have three players who are unrestricted free agents, so the defense could look a lot different come 2012. Here is how the team could look next year, and what that means for your fantasy teams.
Base Defense
Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson were both early first round draft picks that have excelled in stopping the run this past year at the defensive end positions. Both players looked like they could be busts after their rookie years bust have shown drastic improvement. As solid run stoppers, they averaged two to three tackles per game each, but they had just one sack between them which hurts their fantasy value. Both have consistently had low pass rush ratings, so their role on the team is unlikely to change.
At nose tackle last year was Kelly Gregg. He started the season strong with a +7.1 PFF run rating from Week 1 to Week 10, but just a +0.4 from Week 11 to Week 17. At age 35, it’s unlikely he returns unless it’s at a low price. If he does, he will continue to get one or two tackles per game, but he was at best a backup defensive tackle in deep IDP leagues last year and it’s unlikely he improves.
Nickel Defense
In nickel situations, all three starters went to the bench, while Wallace Gilberry and Allen Bailey came in for a two man line. Both were consistently able to bring some pressure, but all of the sacks were coming from the outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Neither player made many tackles, and they just had four sacks between them which hurts their fantasy value.
Someone who could be intriguing is Wallace Gilberry. He was excellent at pass rushing in 2010, but didn’t play as well in 2011. He had six sacks in 2010, and it’s possible for him to return to his 2010 form. He is an unrestricted free agent and it’s possible that he leaves. If he becomes a 4-3 defensive end rather than an inside pass rusher, which should help his numbers. He could also be on a team where he would be in for more of the base defense then he was in Kansas City which would also help him. In the right situation he has the potential to be a star. If he stays in Kansas City, he will remain in the same role and it’s unlikely his fantasy value will increase too much.
In either defense, if someone needed to be rotated out, it was Amon Gordon who was rotated in. This happened at any position, and he had the highest fantasy value per snap for all of the defensive linemen on the Chiefs. He played adequately, but wasn’t as good at stopping the run as the players in the base defense, and not as good as rushing the passer as the players in the nickel defense. He did have two sacks, but just one pressure outside of those two sacks. He is 30 years old, and is also a free agent.
Replacing the Free Agents
The Chiefs will have an interesting offseason, with 18 total unrestricted free agents with Dwayne Bowe at the top of the priority list. They already started making changes by bringing in Stanford Routt at cornerback, and Kansas City could also be in the market for a quarterback. There might not be the money to go around to bring back the veteran linemen.
If Gilberry leaves, they will need to find a replacement who isn’t currently on the roster for those nickel downs. Bailey is the only other player who can rush the quarterback with 11 overall pressures, where the four players who were on the roster last year who could take the spot have a combined 16 overall pressures. If they bring in someone else, he will have comparable fantasy value to Gilberry unless they also play run downs.
Either Gregg or Gordon could be back to take the nose tackle spot, and if they do then things should stay similar to last year. Where things could get interesting is if neither player returns and there is an open spot in the lineup. Dorsey came into the league as a defensive tackle, and could move to nose tackle if need be. Allen Bailey had a positive run defense rating as a rookie, and could take over the defensive end spot. If Bailey does, he would be the only linemen to play both base and nickel defense on the roster. If that’s the case, he has the potential to be one of the best fantasy defensive tackles in the league if he is considered a tackle.
Basically if the Chiefs resign their own players, then none of them will have all that much value due to their limited snaps. If things change, then the situation is worth keeping an eye on.
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